4 ms·

I had always found it fascinating/suspicious that she outlived the next closest long-lifers by so much. Beginning at age 105, there's a 50/50 chance you'll mak

I had always found it fascinating/suspicious that she outlived the next closest long-lifers by so much. Beginning at age 105, there's a 50/50 chance you'll make it to your next birthday (1). So Jeanne was a super outlier in this model, a 2^17 outlier (1:131,072) 1 - https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2018/06/28/new-study-questions-a-limit-to-the-human-life-span/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.bddf8960a83f https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2...

mpweiher 8y ago
On the other hand, with 6-7 Billion people, a 1:130K chance is not going to be much of a hindrance, statistically.
- Majestic121 8y ago
  That's beginning at age 105, so it's closer to 300,000 people (316,600 people over 100 in 2012 according to Wikipedia)
  - mpweiher 8y ago
    Missed that, thanks! Still seems to be an expected value of 2?
    - bluedevil2k 8y ago
      If you just used the 50/50 method (which was only proven for 105-110), then you'd expect 2 of today's 105 year olds to make it to 122. But, Jeanne died some 20 years ago, when medicine wasn't where it is today, and she was humorously 105 in 1980!
- ajross 8y ago
  Only if 130k of those 7B life to 105! (They don't)
- pedrocr 8y ago
  This lists only 500k people 100+: https://www.populationpyramid.net/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/ But even at that scale you'd expect there to be one or two people reach that age and the article claims this case is actually well outside any of the statistical models. So the 50/50 statistic probably understates the odds as I'm sure those percentages keep getting worse every year.
  - bluedevil2k 8y ago
    Agreed, cause the article states the 50/50 statistic only really applies to ages 105-110. After that, I suspect they would start getting worse, but there's probably not enough of a sample size to provide an accurate estimate.
- pdpi 8y ago
  The 1:130K number is from the already-unlikely starting point of her being 105 to begin with. There's a lot fewer than 6 billion 105yo people around!
paulpauper 8y ago
except that the distribution is not strictly binomial
btilly 8y ago
She doesn't fit, but it isn't as extreme as you might think. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_pe... there are 43 people who reached 115, and we know how old 40 of them turned out to be. 9 of those made it to 117. That fits pretty well with the 50% odds of dying each year. She supposedly lived about 7.5 more years after that point. What would her odds be? 0.5^7.5 = 0.0055242717280199 are pretty bad. But with a pool of 40, the odds that SOMEONE lived that long turn are 40x that, which is around 22%. When you combine worse healthcare, challenges around record keeping, and specific evidence of fraud, I am inclined to believe that she was fraud. But the statistical case for it isn't as overwhelming as I would naively guess. (That said, access to a larger data set could easily make the odds against her existence much more extreme.)

mpweiher 8y ago

On the other hand, with 6-7 Billion people, a 1:130K chance is not going to be much of a hindrance, statistically.

Majestic121 8y ago
That's beginning at age 105, so it's closer to 300,000 people (316,600 people over 100 in 2012 according to Wikipedia)
- mpweiher 8y ago
  Missed that, thanks! Still seems to be an expected value of 2?
  - bluedevil2k 8y ago
    If you just used the 50/50 method (which was only proven for 105-110), then you'd expect 2 of today's 105 year olds to make it to 122. But, Jeanne died some 20 years ago, when medicine wasn't where it is today, and she was humorously 105 in 1980!
ajross 8y ago
Only if 130k of those 7B life to 105! (They don't)
pedrocr 8y ago
This lists only 500k people 100+: https://www.populationpyramid.net/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/ But even at that scale you'd expect there to be one or two people reach that age and the article claims this case is actually well outside any of the statistical models. So the 50/50 statistic probably understates the odds as I'm sure those percentages keep getting worse every year.
- bluedevil2k 8y ago
  Agreed, cause the article states the 50/50 statistic only really applies to ages 105-110. After that, I suspect they would start getting worse, but there's probably not enough of a sample size to provide an accurate estimate.
pdpi 8y ago
The 1:130K number is from the already-unlikely starting point of her being 105 to begin with. There's a lot fewer than 6 billion 105yo people around!

paulpauper 8y ago

except that the distribution is not strictly binomial

btilly 8y ago

She doesn't fit, but it isn't as extreme as you might think. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_pe... there are 43 people who reached 115, and we know how old 40 of them turned out to be. 9 of those made it to 117. That fits pretty well with the 50% odds of dying each year. She supposedly lived about 7.5 more years after that point. What would her odds be? 0.5^7.5 = 0.0055242717280199 are pretty bad. But with a pool of 40, the odds that SOMEONE lived that long turn are 40x that, which is around 22%. When you combine worse healthcare, challenges around record keeping, and specific evidence of fraud, I am inclined to believe that she was fraud. But the statistical case for it isn't as overwhelming as I would naively guess. (That said, access to a larger data set could easily make the odds against her existence much more extreme.)