3 ms·

Can't fight a trade war like a cold war. I actually think Trump is doing it right. I mean, if you're going to fight a trade war, you have to do the kinds of thi

Can't fight a trade war like a cold war. I actually think Trump is doing it right. I mean, if you're going to fight a trade war, you have to do the kinds of things he's doing. Now the problem is... economic reality. If the other guy just has the bigger market long term, especially if they can grow their market without you, you're just at a disadvantage. I think we can get some short term wins, but in the long term, we would have to prosecute this trade war flawlessly to come out on top. That's just the reality of large markets looking to de-link themselves from global carbon energy resources. Long term, if we're all intent on ending the age of oil and coal, there's just nothing to keep everyone cooperating with each other.

ggm 8y ago
This trade war is not being prosecuted flawlessly, and as Ike or somebody like him said, no plan survives first engagement with the enemy. Trump does not have a unified national intent behind him. I don't agree with him or his policies, in this or any other regard but trying to think dispassionately, I think appointing Bolton to signal strength of will demands having somebody more flexible to negotiate the real outcome. For example, Trump is probably going to lose the trade war over Iran. They need Boeing spares but if he continues to blackball Iranian trade the future air fleet will be Airbus with loans from Germany and France. Trump is going to lose a trade war in China because China holds far more US debt than Americans hold Chinese debt and China has far more market reach into emerging markets in Africa since the decision to decouple trade and local politics was made clear: you can trade with China and continue to repress your own people or trade with America and have to clean up your act.
- ArchTypical 8y ago
  > Trump is probably going to lose the trade war over Iran Who cares what "Trump" loses? This is about the USA and Trump will be long gone before any of these situations are measured. The USA is not starting a trade war with Iran (first time I've ever heard sanctions called a trade war), the US is enacting sanctions to hurt Iran without scaring allies like Saudi Arabia. > China holds far more US debt than Americans hold Chinese debt That's intentional and good for the US. If you don't understand this, I really think you need to understand why we sell it to foreign powers at all. > China has far more market reach into emerging markets in Africa That's a real problem which the USA is losing out on potentially. It won't be apparent for some time, since people who are industrialized enough to get out of self-oppressive warlord control will not handle foreign occupation very well either. The US answer is always to enable the counter-revolutionaries anyway until the US has someone they want to deal with.
  - ggm 8y ago
    The USA is not starting a trade war with Iran (first time I've ever heard sanctions called a trade war), the US is enacting sanctions to hurt Iran without scaring allies like Saudi Arabia The trade war is with the EU and Russia. Iran is a huge potential future market, alongside the rest of the non saudi aligned Middle East. After Iraq the contracts for rebuild and repair went to classic US interested parties in trade retaliation for prior diplomatic posture in the m.e. by France and Germany. Please explain to me what I don't understand about china holding US debt,and what it means tactically regarding the trade war.
- drak0n1c 8y ago
  China holding US debt is not really a great weapon. If they dump it, they will experience incredible losses, and it is not clear if the effect on the US will actually be proportionately harmful. The USD would drop and US exports may be advantaged. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2160270/why-trade-war-wont-prompt-beijing-dump-its-us-treasuries https://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2160270/why-... There are also many mitigating factors that the US can deploy: https://www.cfr.org/blog/what-would-happen-if-china-started-selling-its-treasury-portfolio https://www.cfr.org/blog/what-would-happen-if-china-started-... https://www.quora.com/What-would-happen-if-China-sold-all-of-its-US-bonds-in-one-shot https://www.quora.com/What-would-happen-if-China-sold-all-of...

ggm 8y ago

This trade war is not being prosecuted flawlessly, and as Ike or somebody like him said, no plan survives first engagement with the enemy. Trump does not have a unified national intent behind him. I don't agree with him or his policies, in this or any other regard but trying to think dispassionately, I think appointing Bolton to signal strength of will demands having somebody more flexible to negotiate the real outcome. For example, Trump is probably going to lose the trade war over Iran. They need Boeing spares but if he continues to blackball Iranian trade the future air fleet will be Airbus with loans from Germany and France. Trump is going to lose a trade war in China because China holds far more US debt than Americans hold Chinese debt and China has far more market reach into emerging markets in Africa since the decision to decouple trade and local politics was made clear: you can trade with China and continue to repress your own people or trade with America and have to clean up your act.

ArchTypical 8y ago
> Trump is probably going to lose the trade war over Iran Who cares what "Trump" loses? This is about the USA and Trump will be long gone before any of these situations are measured. The USA is not starting a trade war with Iran (first time I've ever heard sanctions called a trade war), the US is enacting sanctions to hurt Iran without scaring allies like Saudi Arabia. > China holds far more US debt than Americans hold Chinese debt That's intentional and good for the US. If you don't understand this, I really think you need to understand why we sell it to foreign powers at all. > China has far more market reach into emerging markets in Africa That's a real problem which the USA is losing out on potentially. It won't be apparent for some time, since people who are industrialized enough to get out of self-oppressive warlord control will not handle foreign occupation very well either. The US answer is always to enable the counter-revolutionaries anyway until the US has someone they want to deal with.
- ggm 8y ago
  The USA is not starting a trade war with Iran (first time I've ever heard sanctions called a trade war), the US is enacting sanctions to hurt Iran without scaring allies like Saudi Arabia The trade war is with the EU and Russia. Iran is a huge potential future market, alongside the rest of the non saudi aligned Middle East. After Iraq the contracts for rebuild and repair went to classic US interested parties in trade retaliation for prior diplomatic posture in the m.e. by France and Germany. Please explain to me what I don't understand about china holding US debt,and what it means tactically regarding the trade war.
drak0n1c 8y ago
China holding US debt is not really a great weapon. If they dump it, they will experience incredible losses, and it is not clear if the effect on the US will actually be proportionately harmful. The USD would drop and US exports may be advantaged. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2160270/why-trade-war-wont-prompt-beijing-dump-its-us-treasuries https://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2160270/why-... There are also many mitigating factors that the US can deploy: https://www.cfr.org/blog/what-would-happen-if-china-started-selling-its-treasury-portfolio https://www.cfr.org/blog/what-would-happen-if-china-started-... https://www.quora.com/What-would-happen-if-China-sold-all-of-its-US-bonds-in-one-shot https://www.quora.com/What-would-happen-if-China-sold-all-of...