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I would bet on the Harry Potter game being a relative flop. The Japanese market will probably be dead and that accounted for a huge proportion of Pokémon Go’s r

I would bet on the Harry Potter game being a relative flop. The Japanese market will probably be dead and that accounted for a huge proportion of Pokémon Go’s revenue. I would also doubt that many “whales” would be immediately attracted to the premise. They will have a tough time not just being Pokémon go but with Harry Potter this time, and I bet that will hurt mainstream adoption.

sandworm101 8y ago
Potter is dead. It was a franchise pegged to a particular generation. The original author consciously upped the aged of the books to match the age of the fans. The movies did the same. Potter fans have now grown up. They don't relate to the material as they did as kids. They find the early material childish, silly. Marketing potter to them again is very difficult. Similar franchises (star wars/trek etc) did not attempt to 'grow up' alongside fans. So, decades later, they can still be relevant to new people. Star Wars VIII isn't attempting to be any more mature than Star Wars IV. But compare potter's first and latest movies. They are aiming at totally different age groups.
- nwhatt 8y ago
  They are still making movies in the potter universe. The current one has grossed 150 million in a month. I bet universal studios and Harry Potter legos aren’t doing too bad either.
- tehlike 8y ago
  I believe you could say the same thing for pokemon.
  - GolDDranks 8y ago
    Expect that Pokemon has done the exact opposite: it deliberately has not upped the age of the target audience of the core product. Ash is still ten years old, after adventuring for 20 years. And he's still "relatively unexperienced". Time doesn't pass. Pokemon has diversified the franchise selection though, there are now many goods (themed tableware etc.) aimed for more mature audience.
    - jerf 8y ago
      I've seen at least 3 or 4 posts to the tune of "I'm 23, and I just can't get into this latest Pokemon game. It's so easy, not like they used to be! Am I a bad person?" If you value your karma score, on no account should you say anything like "It's OK, Pokemon is a game designed for children, and while that doesn't mean you must now make an angry face at it, growl, and loudly announce that you're too grown up for it now, it does mean that you're likely going to want to move on. Consider {GAME LIST} for similar more mature takes on the ideas." In the meantime, my 8 and 10 year olds, while not necessarily mega-fans, are decently into it, and will probably be even more so when they actually get their hands on the games. System is working as designed.
      - Noos 8y ago
        The Pokemon games are very complex for games designed for children, as are games like Yokai Watch. The first game is probably one of the most complex 8-bit console RPGS, I'd think. But they really aren't children's games in the usual sense of being designed specifically for them into well into the later lifespan. I think the later games make more concessions to them, but it feels more like it was just a normal rpg that somehow got big for kids due to ancillary merchandise, like trading card games and cartoons.
        jerf 8y ago
        "The Pokemon games are very complex for games designed for children, as are games like Yokai Watch" This is one of those "don't underestimate children" times. I was playing Ultima 4 at the age kids play Pokemon nowadays. But it's definitely designed for 10-14 year olds, and I wouldn't even be surprised a 14 year old not wearing nostalgia goggles would actually start to notice it's getting kinda easy. A lot of that "complexity" is just fluff. Non-competitive Pokemon is still like most other (J)RPGs; ultimately, an answer to every problem (not the answer, but an answer) is to trade time for levels and just blast your way through the next boss. And time is what kids have at that age. A systemic problem with the genre and the exponential-power-gain treadmill. There are solutions, like the Shin Megami Tensei approach of greatly raising the power of non-level-related elements, or the Disgaea approach of just embracing it and going nuts, and some other things (Elder Scrolls has tried a couple of solutions though I'm not in love with either of Oblivion's or Skyrim's attempts to solve this) but the exponential-power-gain approach is still pretty dominant.
- nikanj 8y ago
  I fail to see how the first Harry Potter is less relevant to the ten-year olds today, than it was to the ten-year olds 20 years ago. Somehow you're simultaneously complaining that the Potter series offers something for the older fans, and that the Potter series is too childish?
- foota 8y ago
  Anecdotal, but I'm a mid 20s person living in the US and the harry potter fandom is still very strong.
- benatkin 8y ago
  I don't think Star Trek isn't a similar franchise. It's not centered around a single storyline like Star Wars or Harry Potter. Star Wars is a similar franchise, but I think it shows the opposite, because the fandom was strong during the 16 year gap between movies from 1983 to 1999, which shows that once successful, a fandom like that will stay intact for years, whether or not anything new gets added to it. Harry Potter fans can ignore the new stuff that's coming out. A lot of Star Wars fans disliked or didn't pay much attention to the new movies but remained part of the fandom.
Benjamin_Dobell 8y ago
Japan... not like Harry Potter? I'm guessing you've not been to Universal Studios in Japan! Of course, that's anecdotal evidence. Here's an article about Fantastic Beasts ticket sales: https://deadline.com/2016/11/fantastic-beasts-moana-doctor-strange-allied-overseas-china-weekend-results-international-box-office-1201860236/ https://deadline.com/2016/11/fantastic-beasts-moana-doctor-s... For Fantastic Beasts 2: https://deadline.com/2018/11/venom-crosses-800-million-ralph-breaks-the-internet-fantastic-beasts-grindelwald-global-china-international-box-office-1202508421/ https://deadline.com/2018/11/venom-crosses-800-million-ralph... The latter article states: > it held the No. 1 position in 37 markets this session. Japan, a typically important hub for the Wizarding World, opened to $13M (including $1M on 31 IMAX screens) for WB’s biggest start of 2018 and similar to FB1.
- b_tterc_p 8y ago
  I am surprised by this, but still skeptical. Pikachu almost certainly must be an order of magnitude more popular than Harry Potter, no?
krick 8y ago
Somehow I don't expect HP to be very successful project as well, but the reasoning seems off to me. If anything, Japanese market is more open to new HP franchise products than the others. But I don't think it was actually the Pokemon that made the game successful, it was the mere fact of neutral, yet well-known setting in combination with a relatively novel gameplay. Ingress attracted attention as it was, but lacked the familiar name. But essentially Pokemon Go is the same thing as Ingress, and HP will probably be too. It doesn't seem to be as attractive as that combination of novelty and nostalgia of Pokemon Go 5 years ago. This isn't even remotely a reason for why the game should fail of course, merely absence of an obvious reason for it to succeed. But IMO: while having absolutely huge potential to be great, neither Ingress nor Pokemon Go turned out to be a particularly good game. Maybe HP will be different, but for now I stand by the opinion that Niantic actually isn't a great game-making company.
Taylor_OD 8y ago
HP is as big... if not bigger in a lot of countries than it is in the USA.

sandworm101 8y ago

Potter is dead. It was a franchise pegged to a particular generation. The original author consciously upped the aged of the books to match the age of the fans. The movies did the same. Potter fans have now grown up. They don't relate to the material as they did as kids. They find the early material childish, silly. Marketing potter to them again is very difficult. Similar franchises (star wars/trek etc) did not attempt to 'grow up' alongside fans. So, decades later, they can still be relevant to new people. Star Wars VIII isn't attempting to be any more mature than Star Wars IV. But compare potter's first and latest movies. They are aiming at totally different age groups.

nwhatt 8y ago
They are still making movies in the potter universe. The current one has grossed 150 million in a month. I bet universal studios and Harry Potter legos aren’t doing too bad either.
tehlike 8y ago
I believe you could say the same thing for pokemon.
- GolDDranks 8y ago
  Expect that Pokemon has done the exact opposite: it deliberately has not upped the age of the target audience of the core product. Ash is still ten years old, after adventuring for 20 years. And he's still "relatively unexperienced". Time doesn't pass. Pokemon has diversified the franchise selection though, there are now many goods (themed tableware etc.) aimed for more mature audience.
  - jerf 8y ago
    I've seen at least 3 or 4 posts to the tune of "I'm 23, and I just can't get into this latest Pokemon game. It's so easy, not like they used to be! Am I a bad person?" If you value your karma score, on no account should you say anything like "It's OK, Pokemon is a game designed for children, and while that doesn't mean you must now make an angry face at it, growl, and loudly announce that you're too grown up for it now, it does mean that you're likely going to want to move on. Consider {GAME LIST} for similar more mature takes on the ideas." In the meantime, my 8 and 10 year olds, while not necessarily mega-fans, are decently into it, and will probably be even more so when they actually get their hands on the games. System is working as designed.
    - Noos 8y ago
      The Pokemon games are very complex for games designed for children, as are games like Yokai Watch. The first game is probably one of the most complex 8-bit console RPGS, I'd think. But they really aren't children's games in the usual sense of being designed specifically for them into well into the later lifespan. I think the later games make more concessions to them, but it feels more like it was just a normal rpg that somehow got big for kids due to ancillary merchandise, like trading card games and cartoons.
      - jerf 8y ago
        "The Pokemon games are very complex for games designed for children, as are games like Yokai Watch" This is one of those "don't underestimate children" times. I was playing Ultima 4 at the age kids play Pokemon nowadays. But it's definitely designed for 10-14 year olds, and I wouldn't even be surprised a 14 year old not wearing nostalgia goggles would actually start to notice it's getting kinda easy. A lot of that "complexity" is just fluff. Non-competitive Pokemon is still like most other (J)RPGs; ultimately, an answer to every problem (not the answer, but an answer) is to trade time for levels and just blast your way through the next boss. And time is what kids have at that age. A systemic problem with the genre and the exponential-power-gain treadmill. There are solutions, like the Shin Megami Tensei approach of greatly raising the power of non-level-related elements, or the Disgaea approach of just embracing it and going nuts, and some other things (Elder Scrolls has tried a couple of solutions though I'm not in love with either of Oblivion's or Skyrim's attempts to solve this) but the exponential-power-gain approach is still pretty dominant.
nikanj 8y ago
I fail to see how the first Harry Potter is less relevant to the ten-year olds today, than it was to the ten-year olds 20 years ago. Somehow you're simultaneously complaining that the Potter series offers something for the older fans, and that the Potter series is too childish?
foota 8y ago
Anecdotal, but I'm a mid 20s person living in the US and the harry potter fandom is still very strong.
benatkin 8y ago
I don't think Star Trek isn't a similar franchise. It's not centered around a single storyline like Star Wars or Harry Potter. Star Wars is a similar franchise, but I think it shows the opposite, because the fandom was strong during the 16 year gap between movies from 1983 to 1999, which shows that once successful, a fandom like that will stay intact for years, whether or not anything new gets added to it. Harry Potter fans can ignore the new stuff that's coming out. A lot of Star Wars fans disliked or didn't pay much attention to the new movies but remained part of the fandom.

Benjamin_Dobell 8y ago

Japan... not like Harry Potter? I'm guessing you've not been to Universal Studios in Japan! Of course, that's anecdotal evidence. Here's an article about Fantastic Beasts ticket sales: https://deadline.com/2016/11/fantastic-beasts-moana-doctor-strange-allied-overseas-china-weekend-results-international-box-office-1201860236/ https://deadline.com/2016/11/fantastic-beasts-moana-doctor-s... For Fantastic Beasts 2: https://deadline.com/2018/11/venom-crosses-800-million-ralph-breaks-the-internet-fantastic-beasts-grindelwald-global-china-international-box-office-1202508421/ https://deadline.com/2018/11/venom-crosses-800-million-ralph... The latter article states: > it held the No. 1 position in 37 markets this session. Japan, a typically important hub for the Wizarding World, opened to $13M (including $1M on 31 IMAX screens) for WB’s biggest start of 2018 and similar to FB1.

b_tterc_p 8y ago
I am surprised by this, but still skeptical. Pikachu almost certainly must be an order of magnitude more popular than Harry Potter, no?

krick 8y ago

Somehow I don't expect HP to be very successful project as well, but the reasoning seems off to me. If anything, Japanese market is more open to new HP franchise products than the others. But I don't think it was actually the Pokemon that made the game successful, it was the mere fact of neutral, yet well-known setting in combination with a relatively novel gameplay. Ingress attracted attention as it was, but lacked the familiar name. But essentially Pokemon Go is the same thing as Ingress, and HP will probably be too. It doesn't seem to be as attractive as that combination of novelty and nostalgia of Pokemon Go 5 years ago. This isn't even remotely a reason for why the game should fail of course, merely absence of an obvious reason for it to succeed. But IMO: while having absolutely huge potential to be great, neither Ingress nor Pokemon Go turned out to be a particularly good game. Maybe HP will be different, but for now I stand by the opinion that Niantic actually isn't a great game-making company.

Taylor_OD 8y ago

HP is as big... if not bigger in a lot of countries than it is in the USA.