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People forget that technological development isn't linear but an exponential curve. Once we get to a point where machines can design themselves the sky is the l
by curt 16y ago
People forget that technological development isn't linear but an exponential curve. Once we get to a point where machines can design themselves the sky is the limit. Right now all human knowledge doubles every 2 years. Look back at the technology 50 years, or just 20 years ago and see how far we have come. It's impossible to predict where we will be even just 20 years from now.
In the 20-30 year time frame everything from immortality to artificial sentience could be possible.
- icey 16y agoI hate image dropping in comments, but this picture of Apple's flagship products 10 years ago and today seems relevant: http://i.imgur.com/KhDWo.jpg http://i.imgur.com/KhDWo.jpg
- pshapiro 16y agoI'm surprised to find someone like you who shares such a similar viewpoint as me. Although I don't believe it is fully impossible to predict where we will be 20 years from now -- it's just an ability that's historically limited to a few people by the role they have in the process.