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> not permitted to be released until 10pm in order to front run people speculating on them Exit polls are held back not for trading purposes, but so that peopl

> not permitted to be released until 10pm in order to front run people speculating on them Exit polls are held back not for trading purposes, but so that people go to the polls and vote. If people think they know the result they won't go through the hassle of voting.

osrec 8y ago
Or if they know it's close, then it might spur them on to vote for their desired result...
- fjp 8y ago
  Yeah I agree. I don't see how withholding information here leads to a fairer outcome.
  - jonknee 8y ago
    It's pretty obvious they don't want to affect the outcome of the election... Exit polling isn't super accurate to begin with, it's better for everyone if the data isn't announced until after the polls close.
    - isostatic 8y ago
      If a specific 400 people had changed their mind in 2017 there would be a tory majority government rather than a minority with dup backing If a specific 800 people had changed their mind the tories wouldn't have been able to form a government even with DUP support However the exit poll in 2017 was pretty much dead on
  - ganzuul 8y ago
    Extensive research has been done in this very subject, case you are interested in knowing more.
notahacker 8y ago
FWIW my (admittedly cumbersome) sentence was talking about the "hedge funds buying early access to exit polls...in order to front run people speculating". If they didn't hold back exit polls (for the reason you've correctly stated) paying for priority access to polls would be a whole lot less useful for trading purposes anyway because instead of the big poll reveal at the close of voting all kinds of [partial] poll results would be accessible during the day. But as you've said all this exit polling data available would affect voter behaviour, especially in elections like the UK's with plenty of "tactical voting" going on
ljf 8y ago
I think there should have been a comma in there: 'Not permitted to be released, which they then used to trade'

osrec 8y ago

Or if they know it's close, then it might spur them on to vote for their desired result...

fjp 8y ago
Yeah I agree. I don't see how withholding information here leads to a fairer outcome.
- jonknee 8y ago
  It's pretty obvious they don't want to affect the outcome of the election... Exit polling isn't super accurate to begin with, it's better for everyone if the data isn't announced until after the polls close.
  - isostatic 8y ago
    If a specific 400 people had changed their mind in 2017 there would be a tory majority government rather than a minority with dup backing If a specific 800 people had changed their mind the tories wouldn't have been able to form a government even with DUP support However the exit poll in 2017 was pretty much dead on
- ganzuul 8y ago
  Extensive research has been done in this very subject, case you are interested in knowing more.

notahacker 8y ago

FWIW my (admittedly cumbersome) sentence was talking about the "hedge funds buying early access to exit polls...in order to front run people speculating". If they didn't hold back exit polls (for the reason you've correctly stated) paying for priority access to polls would be a whole lot less useful for trading purposes anyway because instead of the big poll reveal at the close of voting all kinds of [partial] poll results would be accessible during the day. But as you've said all this exit polling data available would affect voter behaviour, especially in elections like the UK's with plenty of "tactical voting" going on

ljf 8y ago

I think there should have been a comma in there: 'Not permitted to be released, which they then used to trade'