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This is a fairly superficial article recapping what I would call "the naive narrative" about the crypto price drops. I.e. it's the information you would get if
by gomox 8y ago
This is a fairly superficial article recapping what I would call "the naive narrative" about the crypto price drops. I.e. it's the information you would get if you asked a random person at a conference why they think the price is dropping: "ICOs are selling and retail investors are running away". Except ICOs haven't sold much [1] and retail investors amount to peanuts in the grand scheme of things. Who bought at $20K and is selling now? Likely almost nobody.
Any real analysis needs to talk about trading volumes, issuance rates and profitability of miners, and market depths. Those are the macro variables that are surely at play for a crash of this magnitude. But most of this information is hard to obtain from reliable sources (i.e. trading volumes on Coinmarketcap are usually assumed to be 97% wash trading bullshit, mining operations are fairly secretive, and large exchanges likely operate some sort of cartel).
So a more accurate answer to "why is crypto dropping" is "someone that has a lot is selling". More specific answers are, to the best of my knowledge, not out there yet.
If you have a better theory I'm intrigued to hear it.
[1] https://twitter.com/lawmaster/status/1039224845807116288?s=19 https://twitter.com/lawmaster/status/1039224845807116288?s=1...
- schmichael 8y agoThere is great irony that a technology predicated on all transactions being public, has by far the most inscrutable, opaque, secretive market. I know it's because almost all trading takes place off-chain on secretive unregulated or lightly-regulated exchanges, but I still find it a significant demonstration of the limited scope of the technologies basic tenets (see also my comment about how it's not "trustless" in a meaningful way).