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>How was it that the famous Tulip Bulb bubble came to a crashing end back in the 1600’s? No one knows the exact moment or trigger. Actually we have a pretty g
by JohnJamesRambo 8y ago
>How was it that the famous Tulip Bulb bubble came to a crashing end back in the 1600’s? No one knows the exact moment or trigger.
Actually we have a pretty good idea about what crashed the tulips-
1. In 1636, cash-settled futures were introduced in the tulip market. A futures contract is one where a buyer and seller will agree a price for a commodity that will be delivered on a certain date. This previously meant that the physical product had to be delivered. But cash-settled futures contracts allow cash to be delivered upon expiration. This method was used during the tulip bubble and a year later in 1637, the market crashed.
2. In 1974 the first gold futures contract was traded on the COMEX exchange in New York. Trading started on December 31. The initial reaction wasn’t pretty — a nearly 50% drop in price (of gold) over 2 years. Can we say for sure that this was caused by the futures market? No — but it sure is interesting the gold had an all time high the day before futures trading began — a price which wasn’t seen again for 3 and 1/2 years.
3. And of course cash settled bitcoin futures were introduced at the start of this year and, would you look at that, the price crashed and had an all time high right before the futures launched.
- hikarudo 8y agoAre there counter examples? That is, cases where futures where introduced but not followed by a crash?
- r00fus 8y agoWas this (cash-settled futures introductions coincident with market crashes) due to the fact that powerful players recognized the market was saturated/oversold and then introduced a further way to milk the market thereby squeezing the last drop?