4 ms·

If they are wrong about this, they can be wrong about anything. Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect.

dvdgsng 8y ago
TIL
jancsika 8y ago
You've been identified by Napier's "Black Rooster." In order to figure out which servant was stealing from him, Napier instructed each to go in the shed and pet a magic rooster that he claimed could reveal to him who the thief was. In reality, Napier covered the rooster in soot. Thus he could identify the culprit-- it was the only servant who exited the shed without soot on their hands. Here, you correctly applied one sense of the Gell-Mann amnesia effect-- a novelist's speculation about experts' inability/refusal to generalize their criticism of a news item within their field to the entire newspaper that contains it. In practice, however, "Gell-Mann amnesia effect" is a gambit that giving a proper name to rank speculation will cause the speculation to propagate as if it were an insight gleaned from a robust research project. If you had understood that part you would have used the rank speculation only an entry point for a comment that provided greater insight (or at least further rank speculation), rather than an insightful phenomenon unto itself. Edit: In other words, you've emerged from the shed without anything other than someone's rank speculation masquerading as research. This makes it clear you've fallen for the 2nd-order effect of the term. Also be wary of: Overton window
- vertline3 8y ago
  By saying I did not pet the rooster you are saying that I misapplied it in way that was lying. This is odious. They published a story not considering the feasability of it. People who knew better called them out. Crichton himself noted the irony of it by using the famous name to attach greater importance to it. Yet he noted it is true that we will quickly forget when reading other stories and himself has called for turning away from media. Finally Overton's Window for me is about framing debate and can be applied over broad areas.
- meowface 8y ago
  I agree with your point, but that seems like a really weird and strained analogy.

TIL

You've been identified by Napier's "Black Rooster." In order to figure out which servant was stealing from him, Napier instructed each to go in the shed and pet a magic rooster that he claimed could reveal to him who the thief was. In reality, Napier covered the rooster in soot. Thus he could identify the culprit-- it was the only servant who exited the shed without soot on their hands. Here, you correctly applied one sense of the Gell-Mann amnesia effect-- a novelist's speculation about experts' inability/refusal to generalize their criticism of a news item within their field to the entire newspaper that contains it. In practice, however, "Gell-Mann amnesia effect" is a gambit that giving a proper name to rank speculation will cause the speculation to propagate as if it were an insight gleaned from a robust research project. If you had understood that part you would have used the rank speculation only an entry point for a comment that provided greater insight (or at least further rank speculation), rather than an insightful phenomenon unto itself. Edit: In other words, you've emerged from the shed without anything other than someone's rank speculation masquerading as research. This makes it clear you've fallen for the 2nd-order effect of the term. Also be wary of: Overton window

vertline3 8y ago
By saying I did not pet the rooster you are saying that I misapplied it in way that was lying. This is odious. They published a story not considering the feasability of it. People who knew better called them out. Crichton himself noted the irony of it by using the famous name to attach greater importance to it. Yet he noted it is true that we will quickly forget when reading other stories and himself has called for turning away from media. Finally Overton's Window for me is about framing debate and can be applied over broad areas.
meowface 8y ago
I agree with your point, but that seems like a really weird and strained analogy.