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It's all just navel-gazing in the face of climate change. The Camp fire happened because we received precisely zero inches of precipitation from the beginning o

It's all just navel-gazing in the face of climate change. The Camp fire happened because we received precisely zero inches of precipitation from the beginning of April, to the end of November this year, not because of a spark. Short of curbing emissions worldwide and building new sequestration capabilities, this is going to be inevitable moving forwards. The best people can do is try to place blame for the immediate consequences to find some financial relief which will never come otherwise due to government's total refusal to acknowledge the problem.

jrobn 8y ago
This, exactly. Don’t expect much movement on climate change until the political elite feel the pain. When the fisheries collapse, fires rage across our corn fields, beef prices skyrocket, and our coastal cities sink into the ocean will you see a climate change denier stand up and throw up their hands and yell “How did this happen! We need to act! Also, why is my steak so expensive. Outrageous!”
- drhousejr 8y ago
  wasnt miami supposed to be in the ocean a few years ago according to al?
  - dd36 8y ago
    Flooding in Miami is the new normal.
    - pixl97 8y ago
      The problem with saying its all climate change, is it is not. Development is great at reducing land permeability which means any precipitation flows faster into creeks raising water levels faster. Land use changes are a huge problem we have almost no control on.
      - dd36 8y ago
        We literally have full control of land use changes through zoning and city codes.
        pixl97 8y ago
        Heh, if only. The first rule of zoning in many towns is increasing property value. The wrong incentives are in effect.
  - shagie 8y ago
    There are significant mitigation efforts in place: https://www.businessinsider.com/miami-floods-sea-level-rise-solutions-2018-4 https://www.businessinsider.com/miami-floods-sea-level-rise-... You can also see the historical tide gauge from 1910 through 2010 at https://www.miamidade.gov/green/library/sea-level-rise-flooding-saltwater-intrusion.pdf https://www.miamidade.gov/green/library/sea-level-rise-flood... Also noted in the above pdf is the salt water intrusion into the Biscayne Aquifer which is used for drinking water in the area - this is a major issue.
drhousejr 8y ago
"The Camp fire happened because we received precisely zero inches of precipitation from the beginning of April, to the end of November this year, not because of a spark." absolutely ridiculous assumption and overreach. There are far too many people looking to point to climate change for every natural disaster that occurs. Many areas in California are naturally hot, dry, and prone to fires much of the year. we are building more and more houses / structures in fire prone areas, making it worse. "by 2050, 645,000 houses in California will be built in “very high” wildfire severity zones." https://www.vox.com/2018/8/7/17661096/california-wildfires-2018-camp-woolsey-climate-change https://www.vox.com/2018/8/7/17661096/california-wildfires-2... we also contribute to it beyond just starting the fires directly (power lines, vehicles, appliances, etc), we make the conditions worse with poor land management "Some researchers said that logging in the burned area after a fire in 2008, which was intended to clear out fuels and make this part of Northern California safer, may have had the opposite result. The logging may have left fast-burning weeds and young trees in the fire’s path." https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/15/us/camp-fire-paradise-cause.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/15/us/camp-fire-paradise-cau... A study published earlier this year in the Proceedings of the National Academies of Science, or PNAS, found that 84 percent of wildfires are ignited by humans, whether through downed power lines, careless campfires, or arson. “Human-started wildfires ... tripled the length of the fire season, dominated an area seven times greater than that affected by lightning fires, and were responsible for nearly half of all area burned,” the paper reported.
cjensen 8y ago
> The Camp fire happened because we received precisely zero inches of precipitation from the beginning of April, to the end of November this year It rained in May and October. It is not helpful to your argument that you are expressing your best honest guesses as if they were canonical fact. In my opinion, there were a number of direct causes: 1. Drought killed a lot of plants adding to the amount of dry fuel 2. A wet winter grew a lot of new plants which, when dried out, added to the fuel 3. Rain sufficient to eliminate fire risk came unusually late in the year. Normally arrives in the range of 2 to 6 weeks earlier. So it was unusual, but the variation is pretty large in the first place. 4. We had a high-wind event sufficient to turn a fire which would not be national news into national news. 5. PG&E negligence. To make the case that this fire is caused by climate change, you need to link one or more of the direct causes I've listed to climate change. In my opinion, while climate change is a possible cause, California climate has so much variation it is hard to pin these events to it at this time.
- mschuster91 8y ago
  > To make the case that this fire is caused by climate change, you need to link one or more of the direct causes I've listed to climate change All four points you list are a direct consequence of climate change (e.g. due to jetstream blockade: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/05/180524141647.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/05/180524141647.h...). Climate change is real and it's dangerous. You also missed one point: the lack of both controlled burns and huge fire barriers between forest sections (i.e. barren land), both of which led the fire to explode.
  - cjensen 8y ago
    California has controlled burns. Fire barriers and escape routes do need to be improved, but not sure that mattered given the wind in this particular incident. Also thanks, I liked that article describing blocking, but it didn't tie the phenomena to climate change. In fact, it says that blocking is a long-known thing. Do you know of any research that does tie it?
- aphextron 8y ago

jrobn 8y ago

This, exactly. Don’t expect much movement on climate change until the political elite feel the pain. When the fisheries collapse, fires rage across our corn fields, beef prices skyrocket, and our coastal cities sink into the ocean will you see a climate change denier stand up and throw up their hands and yell “How did this happen! We need to act! Also, why is my steak so expensive. Outrageous!”

drhousejr 8y ago
wasnt miami supposed to be in the ocean a few years ago according to al?
- dd36 8y ago
  Flooding in Miami is the new normal.
  - pixl97 8y ago
    The problem with saying its all climate change, is it is not. Development is great at reducing land permeability which means any precipitation flows faster into creeks raising water levels faster. Land use changes are a huge problem we have almost no control on.
    - dd36 8y ago
      We literally have full control of land use changes through zoning and city codes.
      - pixl97 8y ago
        Heh, if only. The first rule of zoning in many towns is increasing property value. The wrong incentives are in effect.
- shagie 8y ago
  There are significant mitigation efforts in place: https://www.businessinsider.com/miami-floods-sea-level-rise-solutions-2018-4 https://www.businessinsider.com/miami-floods-sea-level-rise-... You can also see the historical tide gauge from 1910 through 2010 at https://www.miamidade.gov/green/library/sea-level-rise-flooding-saltwater-intrusion.pdf https://www.miamidade.gov/green/library/sea-level-rise-flood... Also noted in the above pdf is the salt water intrusion into the Biscayne Aquifer which is used for drinking water in the area - this is a major issue.

drhousejr 8y ago

"The Camp fire happened because we received precisely zero inches of precipitation from the beginning of April, to the end of November this year, not because of a spark." absolutely ridiculous assumption and overreach. There are far too many people looking to point to climate change for every natural disaster that occurs. Many areas in California are naturally hot, dry, and prone to fires much of the year. we are building more and more houses / structures in fire prone areas, making it worse. "by 2050, 645,000 houses in California will be built in “very high” wildfire severity zones." https://www.vox.com/2018/8/7/17661096/california-wildfires-2018-camp-woolsey-climate-change https://www.vox.com/2018/8/7/17661096/california-wildfires-2... we also contribute to it beyond just starting the fires directly (power lines, vehicles, appliances, etc), we make the conditions worse with poor land management "Some researchers said that logging in the burned area after a fire in 2008, which was intended to clear out fuels and make this part of Northern California safer, may have had the opposite result. The logging may have left fast-burning weeds and young trees in the fire’s path." https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/15/us/camp-fire-paradise-cause.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/15/us/camp-fire-paradise-cau... A study published earlier this year in the Proceedings of the National Academies of Science, or PNAS, found that 84 percent of wildfires are ignited by humans, whether through downed power lines, careless campfires, or arson. “Human-started wildfires ... tripled the length of the fire season, dominated an area seven times greater than that affected by lightning fires, and were responsible for nearly half of all area burned,” the paper reported.

cjensen 8y ago

> The Camp fire happened because we received precisely zero inches of precipitation from the beginning of April, to the end of November this year It rained in May and October. It is not helpful to your argument that you are expressing your best honest guesses as if they were canonical fact. In my opinion, there were a number of direct causes: 1. Drought killed a lot of plants adding to the amount of dry fuel 2. A wet winter grew a lot of new plants which, when dried out, added to the fuel 3. Rain sufficient to eliminate fire risk came unusually late in the year. Normally arrives in the range of 2 to 6 weeks earlier. So it was unusual, but the variation is pretty large in the first place. 4. We had a high-wind event sufficient to turn a fire which would not be national news into national news. 5. PG&E negligence. To make the case that this fire is caused by climate change, you need to link one or more of the direct causes I've listed to climate change. In my opinion, while climate change is a possible cause, California climate has so much variation it is hard to pin these events to it at this time.

mschuster91 8y ago
> To make the case that this fire is caused by climate change, you need to link one or more of the direct causes I've listed to climate change All four points you list are a direct consequence of climate change (e.g. due to jetstream blockade: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/05/180524141647.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/05/180524141647.h...). Climate change is real and it's dangerous. You also missed one point: the lack of both controlled burns and huge fire barriers between forest sections (i.e. barren land), both of which led the fire to explode.
- cjensen 8y ago
  California has controlled burns. Fire barriers and escape routes do need to be improved, but not sure that mattered given the wind in this particular incident. Also thanks, I liked that article describing blocking, but it didn't tie the phenomena to climate change. In fact, it says that blocking is a long-known thing. Do you know of any research that does tie it?
aphextron 8y ago