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> This is a relatively-trivial engineering exercise with any number of safe, efficient solutions. Your comments here are another great example of how ironic it

> This is a relatively-trivial engineering exercise with any number of safe, efficient solutions. Your comments here are another great example of how ironic it is to hear the word "trivial" used to describe solutions. Don't you think it's a little unrealistic that your "relatively-trivial engineering exercise" suggestions are capable of successfully tackling a problem so many parties have thought about? Have you considered that your insight is actually failing to account for a variety of unknown unknowns you might have about the NYC subway system? Look at it this way: why do you suppose your suggestions haven't been implemented yet? Do you think the vast array of parties with skin in the game haven't thought of them (and are thus incompetent)? Do you think they simply aren't motivated to implement them? I wouldn't be surprised if your proposals are technically sound (especially for greenfield rail construction). But I would be absolutely shocked if the problem is anywhere near as trivial as you're making it out to be.

CamperBob2 8y ago
Have you considered that your insight is actually failing to account for a variety of unknown unknowns you might have about the NYC subway system? No. Whatever the unknown unknowns are, they're not going to be that hard to work around. Keeping track of a few train cars isn't exactly the Manhattan Project, even if it has to be done underneath Manhattan. The video suggests that the total budget for the CBTC retrofit was in the vicinity of $1 billion. I hope that I either misinterpreted it, or that the budget includes other improvements, because I doubt it cost that much (in 2018 dollars) to build the initial subway routes in the first place. Look at it this way: why do you suppose your suggestions haven't been implemented yet? Do you think the vast array of parties with skin in the game haven't thought of them (and are thus incompetent)? Do you think they simply aren't motivated to implement them? I think the vast array of parties with skin in the game have treated said "skin" as a target for optimization in itself. I'll readily admit they're likely better at that game than I am.
- throwawaymath 8y ago
  How can you say with any confidence that the unknown unknowns you have won’t be very hard to work around? That’s entirely the point of unknown unknowns - you don’t know what you don’t know.
  - CamperBob2 8y ago
    (Shrug) I know how to figure out where some subway cars are and keep track of them for less than nine figures. I don't expect anyone to take my word for it, and I don't care if they don't; it's just an excuse for some meaningless chest-thumping on HN while waiting for Vivado to do its thing. :-P If I lived in New York and had to pay for it, I'd probably find the question less interesting and more infuriating.
    - Anechoic 8y ago
      I would encourage you to submit a problem statement with your proposed method to TCRP research program [0,1]. Unfortunately the 2019 solicitation is closed, but the 2020 solicitation will open early next year. A better vehicle tracking method than the current block-level tracking is something that would be valuable to sub-surface transit system in the USA and if what you propose (or something similar) is feasible, the statement stands a real good chance of getting funded for a research project. And if the project is funded, you can even bid on the research work. I'm active on the TBR ADC040 subcommittee, if you have questions, hit me up (my twitter is on my profile) and I'll see if I can connect you to the right person. I write this in all seriousness - this isn't a "if you're so smart why don't you do it" post, I'm writing this in acknowledgement that there are a lot of smart people on HN, and if there's a chance to improve US transit, I'm all for it. [0] http://www.trb.org/TCRP/AboutTCRP.aspx http://www.trb.org/TCRP/AboutTCRP.aspx [1] http://www.trb.org/TCRP/TCRPOverview.aspx http://www.trb.org/TCRP/TCRPOverview.aspx
      - CamperBob2 8y ago
        I hear you, but unfortunately, I have no insights that any random EE (or advanced hobbyist) with some DSP experience wouldn't immediately bring up as well. It's safe to say that anything I could suggest has already ended up in plenty of proposals. It would be interesting to understand just why this is considered a $100M-$1B problem, though. I'm curious enough to do some more reading.
- scrollaway 8y ago
  > No. Whatever the unknown unknowns are, they're not going to be that hard to work around. Please try some humility, for real. This isn't some guy's backyard train model project. This is a 24/7-running subway in one of the busiest cities in the world. Errors that result in shutdowns can cost tens to hundreds of millions of dollars in economical damage. Accidents can take hundreds to thousands of lives. This attitude you have is the attitude of every single commenter who asks why Dropbox has "so many employees" when they "could build it in a weekend". It shows a huge amount of disrespect for complexity you aren't aware of; and by extension, things you're not aware of in general. It's the same attitude you find in project managers who don't understand XKCD1425 and "just want it done now it can't be that hard". The attitude of anti-vaxxers who dismiss expert opinions to rely on their gut feelings. I don't know why it's so expensive, I haven't seen the breakdown, but my default reaction will be to dig further, rather than to dismiss people who have worked on subway systems infinitely more than me and casually throw in a "Nah, it's just keeping track of some train cars, nbd".
Arn_Thor 8y ago
Absolutely fair point. But don't you think there's something profoundly wrong somewhere when cities in all kinds of climates and conditions around the world manage to solve their problems. With the pooled knowledge of all those projects, isn't it likely that the NY project could find solutions there? Presumably sourcing knowledge and solutions and adapting them would in hindsight have been cheaper than developing a system from scratch?
- Symbiote 8y ago
  CBTC systems are widely used worldwide. The best solution is probably for the MTA to buy a system from Siemens or Thales – they have that worldwide knowledge. But last time I discussed this here, I was told funding restrictions meant the company had to be American. Unfortunately for that, this is an area of European expertise.
  - Arn_Thor 8y ago
    If that's the case it could explain the problems.. Of course that's moronic because the US isn't known for smoothly functioning public transit systems.

CamperBob2 8y ago

Have you considered that your insight is actually failing to account for a variety of unknown unknowns you might have about the NYC subway system? No. Whatever the unknown unknowns are, they're not going to be that hard to work around. Keeping track of a few train cars isn't exactly the Manhattan Project, even if it has to be done underneath Manhattan. The video suggests that the total budget for the CBTC retrofit was in the vicinity of $1 billion. I hope that I either misinterpreted it, or that the budget includes other improvements, because I doubt it cost that much (in 2018 dollars) to build the initial subway routes in the first place. Look at it this way: why do you suppose your suggestions haven't been implemented yet? Do you think the vast array of parties with skin in the game haven't thought of them (and are thus incompetent)? Do you think they simply aren't motivated to implement them? I think the vast array of parties with skin in the game have treated said "skin" as a target for optimization in itself. I'll readily admit they're likely better at that game than I am.

throwawaymath 8y ago
How can you say with any confidence that the unknown unknowns you have won’t be very hard to work around? That’s entirely the point of unknown unknowns - you don’t know what you don’t know.
- CamperBob2 8y ago
  (Shrug) I know how to figure out where some subway cars are and keep track of them for less than nine figures. I don't expect anyone to take my word for it, and I don't care if they don't; it's just an excuse for some meaningless chest-thumping on HN while waiting for Vivado to do its thing. :-P If I lived in New York and had to pay for it, I'd probably find the question less interesting and more infuriating.
  - Anechoic 8y ago
    I would encourage you to submit a problem statement with your proposed method to TCRP research program [0,1]. Unfortunately the 2019 solicitation is closed, but the 2020 solicitation will open early next year. A better vehicle tracking method than the current block-level tracking is something that would be valuable to sub-surface transit system in the USA and if what you propose (or something similar) is feasible, the statement stands a real good chance of getting funded for a research project. And if the project is funded, you can even bid on the research work. I'm active on the TBR ADC040 subcommittee, if you have questions, hit me up (my twitter is on my profile) and I'll see if I can connect you to the right person. I write this in all seriousness - this isn't a "if you're so smart why don't you do it" post, I'm writing this in acknowledgement that there are a lot of smart people on HN, and if there's a chance to improve US transit, I'm all for it. [0] http://www.trb.org/TCRP/AboutTCRP.aspx http://www.trb.org/TCRP/AboutTCRP.aspx [1] http://www.trb.org/TCRP/TCRPOverview.aspx http://www.trb.org/TCRP/TCRPOverview.aspx
    - CamperBob2 8y ago
      I hear you, but unfortunately, I have no insights that any random EE (or advanced hobbyist) with some DSP experience wouldn't immediately bring up as well. It's safe to say that anything I could suggest has already ended up in plenty of proposals. It would be interesting to understand just why this is considered a $100M-$1B problem, though. I'm curious enough to do some more reading.
scrollaway 8y ago
> No. Whatever the unknown unknowns are, they're not going to be that hard to work around. Please try some humility, for real. This isn't some guy's backyard train model project. This is a 24/7-running subway in one of the busiest cities in the world. Errors that result in shutdowns can cost tens to hundreds of millions of dollars in economical damage. Accidents can take hundreds to thousands of lives. This attitude you have is the attitude of every single commenter who asks why Dropbox has "so many employees" when they "could build it in a weekend". It shows a huge amount of disrespect for complexity you aren't aware of; and by extension, things you're not aware of in general. It's the same attitude you find in project managers who don't understand XKCD1425 and "just want it done now it can't be that hard". The attitude of anti-vaxxers who dismiss expert opinions to rely on their gut feelings. I don't know why it's so expensive, I haven't seen the breakdown, but my default reaction will be to dig further, rather than to dismiss people who have worked on subway systems infinitely more than me and casually throw in a "Nah, it's just keeping track of some train cars, nbd".

Arn_Thor 8y ago

Absolutely fair point. But don't you think there's something profoundly wrong somewhere when cities in all kinds of climates and conditions around the world manage to solve their problems. With the pooled knowledge of all those projects, isn't it likely that the NY project could find solutions there? Presumably sourcing knowledge and solutions and adapting them would in hindsight have been cheaper than developing a system from scratch?

Symbiote 8y ago
CBTC systems are widely used worldwide. The best solution is probably for the MTA to buy a system from Siemens or Thales – they have that worldwide knowledge. But last time I discussed this here, I was told funding restrictions meant the company had to be American. Unfortunately for that, this is an area of European expertise.
- Arn_Thor 8y ago
  If that's the case it could explain the problems.. Of course that's moronic because the US isn't known for smoothly functioning public transit systems.