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Sure, there's no rational way to predict what bitcoin "should" be worth like with a startup, or any other company. Exactly because it's less a technology and mo
by jf- 8y ago
Sure, there's no rational way to predict what bitcoin "should" be worth like with a startup, or any other company. Exactly because it's less a technology and more a social construct, as you say it's based on momentum and prayers, it's worth what people think it's worth.
We may not be disagreeing, I took "this market is a bust" and the picaxe seller analogy to mean that you foresaw cryptocurrencies dying out completely, but you may have just been referring to the crash that's already happened.
- muhneesh 8y agoYes - we probably don't disagree. I believe that there's probably some technological value in digital currencies. In terms of the "market being a bust", the statement was a criticism of the current valuation of the cryptocurrency market - particularly, that it is based on a cauldron of unholy factors that I mentioned in the first post.
- hndamien 8y agoI don't quite understand the staunch love for the current payment and monetary system versus private peer to peer payments.
- tptacek 8y agoWait, isn't that a false equivalence? Plenty of compelling rational arguments have been made for a $0 Bitcoin: its value is based on mania, it competes unfavorably with other cryptocurrencies, and it sees minimal (and decreasing!) real-world use as a medium of exchange.
- jf- 8y agoWhat am I falsely equating? I don't think that the store of value argument is absurd, even with real world assets like gold their value is really just socially constructed. I don't see why it couldn't in principle be the same for bitcoin, it just needs to be the biggest cryptocurrency and concrete the idea of it's own value in people's minds for a long enough time, until they take it for granted. Whether that actually will happen I don't think anyone can say. I think it's a mistake to assume that the value here has to do with the technology, e.g. the "best" cryptocurrency must win. It's likely just long-term momentum.
- tptacek 8y agoThe arguments suggesting Bitcoin has an intrinsic value of $0 have rational, evidence-based premises, like the notion that Bitcoin is technologically inferior to some of its competitors and the lack of its use as a medium of exchange. You can't generally say that about the arguments in favor of Bitcoin, though I'm happy to hear counterexamples. The "store of value" argument doesn't mean anything. Beanie Babies, tulip bulbs, and Hummel Figurines are also "stores of value".
- jf- 8y agoArtworks, antiques, gemstones. None of these are of any practical value, yet they hold value. You’re over systematising and not getting it. Value isn’t inherently rational. Also, what was the false equivalence?
- tptacek 8y agoTry this: being a store of value is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for Bitcoin's viability.
- richardknop 8y agoBitcoin will probably never go back to zero. The money laundering and selling of drugs / other criminal activities will continue using it therefor it will keep some small value. It has a long way to drop from $3500 though. Altcoins though will probably go to zero as they are completely useless compared to BTC at least being useful for criminals.
- gl00pp 8y agoBut criminals don't want their transactions recorded in a immutable ledger for all eternity... ...I hear they use Monero
- richardknop 8y agoIt's just Bitcoin addresses, not linked to individuals, doesn't matter it's in the ledger. These people don't go through exchanges with KYC I'd assume. They might do something like localbitcoins or shady exchanges in countries like China/Russia.