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Depends on the valuation models used. There's no accepted standard yet. The way I value currencies, the size of the network and the number of projects built on

Depends on the valuation models used. There's no accepted standard yet. The way I value currencies, the size of the network and the number of projects built on top of it is what matters and in that view Ethereum and Bitcoin are definitely worth much more that their current fx price.

jf- 8y ago
Serious question: do you have a personal financial or professional stake in blockchain that may be colouring your view?
- decentralised 8y ago
  I'm a professional blockchain architect and before I worked in Fintech for 20 years. Most of my views are definitely impacted by my own experiences.
  - jf- 8y ago
    Then does the bias you assume others to have not apply equally to you? It doesn’t matter what arguments are made here, if you’re all-in on blockchain you’re not going to listen to any of them. Also, how do you account for such scepticism from the community? Do you think everyone just irrationally hates new technology? Given where we are that seems unlikely.
    - decentralised 8y ago
      I do tend to change my opinions when presented with new evidence and took my time to go "all in"into blockchain professionally because I thought it was not going to last and in any case it was mostly a solution to a problem I was being paid to solve with other technology... Bitcoin was my enemy! I take HN user's reaction to Web3 to be within expectations for any revolutionary technology. If von Neuman criticised FORTRAN for being too high-level and not needed for serious computer science and IBM failed at capturing the web, Warren Buffet didn't invest in Microsoft, Apple or Google, then this to me suggests that the bigger the paradigm shift, the more those who created or benefit from the status quo will fight it. It's my belief that the web as we know it was developed without security or privacy in consideration and that this is the ultimate reason why we have the current "surveillance economy" and the cyber risks affecting people, businesses and nation states and that the Web3 will offer a cryptography-first alternative within the next two years. We could go through my comment history and you'll see that for the most part I try to share my knowledge and experience in a positive way and never assume others are irrational, but a few interactions were generally negative. I do get a gut reaction to comments that insinuate my line of work benefits criminals, for instance, and lashed out once or twice at terrible articles or blogs that were shared here and were taken as authoritative when in fact they were complete nonsense for anyone _working_ in the space. I regret those but won't delete them. This is my work and I sustain a family with it so yes I am biased but not uninformed or incapable of learning new facts. More broadly, I'm familiar with how trends work and some aspects of the blockchain community can be off putting and the technology itself is often misrepresented as simply a "distributed ledger" but I'm also confident that anyone who cares enough to try and join a developer focused meetup (Ethereum!) or event will see the side that I try my best to represent.
rs86 8y ago
There is only one valuation principle in finance. It's present value of future cash flows. All other methods are approximations or this
- decentralised 8y ago
  How about VCs? Don't they fund projects based on future value?
  - ajiang 8y ago
    VCs also use projected future cash flows or as the previous commenter said, an approximation of such.
    - decentralised 8y ago
      So how do you value open-source "commons"? ICOs were created precisely because these projects aren't supposed to generate profit.
      - realsunnyg 8y ago
        I think most were designed to create a profit for at least one party...
        decentralised 8y ago
        Sure, but in which concrete cases, and how was it somehow morally reprehensible to seek compensation for open-source work?
- hndamien 8y ago
  I think the "cash" part is the confusing sticking part here. What currency is that in? Cash is also a position? Discounted for inflation, deflation etc. The framing of the valuation model is confined to the context of the monetary system it is within. Ie - assuming with an inflationary monetary system, I have $x cash. Where can I allocate it (at what valuation) such that I can generate a greater yield - all monetary policy implications considered.
spookthesunset 8y ago
> Depends on the valuation models used. There's no accepted standard yet. Ten years and you still have no accepted standard for valuation. Hmmm.... what does that tell you about the entire space?
betterunix2 8y ago
The lack of widely accepted valuation models is probably a major contributing factor in the dramatic decline in prices...
- FabHK 8y ago
  I'd say that widely accepted valuation models are probably a major contributing factor in the dramatic decline in prices...

jf- 8y ago

Serious question: do you have a personal financial or professional stake in blockchain that may be colouring your view?

decentralised 8y ago
I'm a professional blockchain architect and before I worked in Fintech for 20 years. Most of my views are definitely impacted by my own experiences.
- jf- 8y ago
  Then does the bias you assume others to have not apply equally to you? It doesn’t matter what arguments are made here, if you’re all-in on blockchain you’re not going to listen to any of them. Also, how do you account for such scepticism from the community? Do you think everyone just irrationally hates new technology? Given where we are that seems unlikely.
  - decentralised 8y ago
    I do tend to change my opinions when presented with new evidence and took my time to go "all in"into blockchain professionally because I thought it was not going to last and in any case it was mostly a solution to a problem I was being paid to solve with other technology... Bitcoin was my enemy! I take HN user's reaction to Web3 to be within expectations for any revolutionary technology. If von Neuman criticised FORTRAN for being too high-level and not needed for serious computer science and IBM failed at capturing the web, Warren Buffet didn't invest in Microsoft, Apple or Google, then this to me suggests that the bigger the paradigm shift, the more those who created or benefit from the status quo will fight it. It's my belief that the web as we know it was developed without security or privacy in consideration and that this is the ultimate reason why we have the current "surveillance economy" and the cyber risks affecting people, businesses and nation states and that the Web3 will offer a cryptography-first alternative within the next two years. We could go through my comment history and you'll see that for the most part I try to share my knowledge and experience in a positive way and never assume others are irrational, but a few interactions were generally negative. I do get a gut reaction to comments that insinuate my line of work benefits criminals, for instance, and lashed out once or twice at terrible articles or blogs that were shared here and were taken as authoritative when in fact they were complete nonsense for anyone _working_ in the space. I regret those but won't delete them. This is my work and I sustain a family with it so yes I am biased but not uninformed or incapable of learning new facts. More broadly, I'm familiar with how trends work and some aspects of the blockchain community can be off putting and the technology itself is often misrepresented as simply a "distributed ledger" but I'm also confident that anyone who cares enough to try and join a developer focused meetup (Ethereum!) or event will see the side that I try my best to represent.

rs86 8y ago

There is only one valuation principle in finance. It's present value of future cash flows. All other methods are approximations or this

decentralised 8y ago
How about VCs? Don't they fund projects based on future value?
- ajiang 8y ago
  VCs also use projected future cash flows or as the previous commenter said, an approximation of such.
  - decentralised 8y ago
    So how do you value open-source "commons"? ICOs were created precisely because these projects aren't supposed to generate profit.
    - realsunnyg 8y ago
      I think most were designed to create a profit for at least one party...
      - decentralised 8y ago
        Sure, but in which concrete cases, and how was it somehow morally reprehensible to seek compensation for open-source work?
hndamien 8y ago
I think the "cash" part is the confusing sticking part here. What currency is that in? Cash is also a position? Discounted for inflation, deflation etc. The framing of the valuation model is confined to the context of the monetary system it is within. Ie - assuming with an inflationary monetary system, I have $x cash. Where can I allocate it (at what valuation) such that I can generate a greater yield - all monetary policy implications considered.

spookthesunset 8y ago

> Depends on the valuation models used. There's no accepted standard yet. Ten years and you still have no accepted standard for valuation. Hmmm.... what does that tell you about the entire space?

betterunix2 8y ago

The lack of widely accepted valuation models is probably a major contributing factor in the dramatic decline in prices...

FabHK 8y ago
I'd say that widely accepted valuation models are probably a major contributing factor in the dramatic decline in prices...