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Tesla's motors are quite advanced - and at the heart of an electric motor is materials science, which is very complex and amenable to multiple trade secrets. T

Tesla's motors are quite advanced - and at the heart of an electric motor is materials science, which is very complex and amenable to multiple trade secrets. The first internal combustion engines were vastly simpler than the motor in your blender. There too, it was actually casting tech and materials science that really mattered. Ditto re batteries. I wish the big companies luck, and they have finally woken up - but across a vast range of business history giving a multiple year lead can easily be fatal to incumbents, no matter how wonderful they were at the last tech. Investment isn't enough, I recommend Clayton Christensen's works, or just view some of his excellent Youtube videos (Innovator's Dilemma being his most famous book.)

clouddrover 8y ago
> Tesla's motors are quite advanced And yet a low volume brand like Jaguar can produce a competitive electric car. What's going to happen when Mercedes releases multiple electric models? As the article says, in 2017 Mercedes sold 2.3 million cars. Tesla sold 101,000. > they have finally woken up It's less about them waking up and more about it finally being worth their time. They operate at a larger scale than Tesla, they have existing product lines, and why stop making what continues to sell? A bigger motivation for them is that multiple countries have announced future bans on non-electric vehicles. They need to produce electrics to keep selling cars. > across a vast range of business history giving a multiple year lead can easily be fatal to incumbents I don't think so in this case. The incumbents have second mover advantage. Tesla has grown the early market for electric cars, they've set a benchmark, and they're now going to get out-produced by the larger manufacturers. When everyone's selling electric cars, why am I buying a Tesla?
- Nomentatus 8y ago
  There's no competitive Jaguar EV yet. It's not competitive until it's actually out there competing, with a margin above costs, in quantities above 1,000 a month at sedan prices. Right now it's a concept car being shown around; you can't buy one and have it delivered, the announced model will be high-end and c'mon man: seriously, there's no shortage of EV concept EVs in the world now. From an article published today: "The I-Pace SUV, launched this week..." "I-Pace starts at $119,000, about $35,000 below the Model X, Tesla’s SUV." "Test drives of I-Pace started this week..." https://www.theaustralian.com.au/life/motoring/jaguar-makes-marque-in-race-to-electric-vehicles/news-story/9fe012db57c2dd61003086b37a5eb4d3 https://www.theaustralian.com.au/life/motoring/jaguar-makes-... And within a few days: "While the I-Pace is an athletic prodigy, it doesn't do much to advance the EV state of the art. The sole battery pack, a 90.0-kWh unit, is EPA rated for 234 miles between charges. Tesla's Model X earns a 238-mile rating with a 75.0-kWh battery, and a Chevy Bolt covers that distance with just 60.0 kilowatt-hours. Perhaps the Jag's inefficiency is the price you pay for an EV that doesn't look like a suppository." https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2019-jaguar-i-pace-by-the-numbers https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2019-jaguar-i-pace-by-t... https://electrek.co/2018/08/23/jaguar-e-type-zero-production-electric-ev-conversion/ https://electrek.co/2018/08/23/jaguar-e-type-zero-production... https://www.techradar.com/news/jaguar-i-pace-the-future-now https://www.techradar.com/news/jaguar-i-pace-the-future-now Why shill for this firm? It's really great at hyping itself. Production is the test, it may happen, and Jaguar might even be able to compete at the very high end: but it's not out there competing now, and won't be trying sedan sales for years, if ever. You only have a second-mover advantage if you have a better tech that can leapfrog the first tech; Google did, Watt did, Westinghouse did but this is the exception, not the rule.
  - clouddrover 8y ago
    > Right now it's a concept car being shown around; you can't buy one and have it delivered You can buy a Jaguar I-Pace and have it delivered: https://electrek.co/2018/10/17/jaguar-starts-i-pace-deliveries-us/ https://electrek.co/2018/10/17/jaguar-starts-i-pace-deliveri... https://www.electrive.com/2018/10/01/jaguar-i-pace-delivered-to-germany-in-limited-volume/ https://www.electrive.com/2018/10/01/jaguar-i-pace-delivered... https://insideevs.com/in-norway-jaguar-i-pace-400-deliveries/ https://insideevs.com/in-norway-jaguar-i-pace-400-deliveries... And the current and future competition is already hurting Tesla sales in Europe: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-11/jaguar-i-pace-and-other-rivals-a-headache-for-tesla-s-elon-musk https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-11/jaguar-i-... > Why shill for this firm? I'm not shilling for anyone, son. I'm just objective.
    - Nomentatus 8y ago
      I stand corrected on this one point. No indication of whether they are selling below cost but it's wildly unlikely they aren't - so that's not yet sustainable competition even at the high end. Your word competitive referred to my comment on Tesla motors, but as I've already stated, in fact Jaguar's car is clearly less efficient. Tesla started high-end UV deliveries ancient years ago. Lower cost Ford EVs, etc have been driving around for a while. So why do arabesques for Jaguar? You weren't objective enough to note the $100,000 price tag; there's no objective analysis that makes Jaguar EVs competitive with Tesla's model 3 today. Nor are you objective enough to answer any of my other points, such as the inefficiency of Jaguar's car, contra your denial of my statement that "Tesla's motors are quite advanced." It would be civil not to just ignore points you can't answer.
      - Nomentatus 8y ago
        Just realized "that 1,000 shipped" or "delivered" may just refer to their test drive cars; they may not have sent one to a customer yet.

clouddrover 8y ago

> Tesla's motors are quite advanced And yet a low volume brand like Jaguar can produce a competitive electric car. What's going to happen when Mercedes releases multiple electric models? As the article says, in 2017 Mercedes sold 2.3 million cars. Tesla sold 101,000. > they have finally woken up It's less about them waking up and more about it finally being worth their time. They operate at a larger scale than Tesla, they have existing product lines, and why stop making what continues to sell? A bigger motivation for them is that multiple countries have announced future bans on non-electric vehicles. They need to produce electrics to keep selling cars. > across a vast range of business history giving a multiple year lead can easily be fatal to incumbents I don't think so in this case. The incumbents have second mover advantage. Tesla has grown the early market for electric cars, they've set a benchmark, and they're now going to get out-produced by the larger manufacturers. When everyone's selling electric cars, why am I buying a Tesla?

Nomentatus 8y ago
There's no competitive Jaguar EV yet. It's not competitive until it's actually out there competing, with a margin above costs, in quantities above 1,000 a month at sedan prices. Right now it's a concept car being shown around; you can't buy one and have it delivered, the announced model will be high-end and c'mon man: seriously, there's no shortage of EV concept EVs in the world now. From an article published today: "The I-Pace SUV, launched this week..." "I-Pace starts at $119,000, about $35,000 below the Model X, Tesla’s SUV." "Test drives of I-Pace started this week..." https://www.theaustralian.com.au/life/motoring/jaguar-makes-marque-in-race-to-electric-vehicles/news-story/9fe012db57c2dd61003086b37a5eb4d3 https://www.theaustralian.com.au/life/motoring/jaguar-makes-... And within a few days: "While the I-Pace is an athletic prodigy, it doesn't do much to advance the EV state of the art. The sole battery pack, a 90.0-kWh unit, is EPA rated for 234 miles between charges. Tesla's Model X earns a 238-mile rating with a 75.0-kWh battery, and a Chevy Bolt covers that distance with just 60.0 kilowatt-hours. Perhaps the Jag's inefficiency is the price you pay for an EV that doesn't look like a suppository." https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2019-jaguar-i-pace-by-the-numbers https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2019-jaguar-i-pace-by-t... https://electrek.co/2018/08/23/jaguar-e-type-zero-production-electric-ev-conversion/ https://electrek.co/2018/08/23/jaguar-e-type-zero-production... https://www.techradar.com/news/jaguar-i-pace-the-future-now https://www.techradar.com/news/jaguar-i-pace-the-future-now Why shill for this firm? It's really great at hyping itself. Production is the test, it may happen, and Jaguar might even be able to compete at the very high end: but it's not out there competing now, and won't be trying sedan sales for years, if ever. You only have a second-mover advantage if you have a better tech that can leapfrog the first tech; Google did, Watt did, Westinghouse did but this is the exception, not the rule.
- clouddrover 8y ago
  > Right now it's a concept car being shown around; you can't buy one and have it delivered You can buy a Jaguar I-Pace and have it delivered: https://electrek.co/2018/10/17/jaguar-starts-i-pace-deliveries-us/ https://electrek.co/2018/10/17/jaguar-starts-i-pace-deliveri... https://www.electrive.com/2018/10/01/jaguar-i-pace-delivered-to-germany-in-limited-volume/ https://www.electrive.com/2018/10/01/jaguar-i-pace-delivered... https://insideevs.com/in-norway-jaguar-i-pace-400-deliveries/ https://insideevs.com/in-norway-jaguar-i-pace-400-deliveries... And the current and future competition is already hurting Tesla sales in Europe: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-11/jaguar-i-pace-and-other-rivals-a-headache-for-tesla-s-elon-musk https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-11/jaguar-i-... > Why shill for this firm? I'm not shilling for anyone, son. I'm just objective.
  - Nomentatus 8y ago
    I stand corrected on this one point. No indication of whether they are selling below cost but it's wildly unlikely they aren't - so that's not yet sustainable competition even at the high end. Your word competitive referred to my comment on Tesla motors, but as I've already stated, in fact Jaguar's car is clearly less efficient. Tesla started high-end UV deliveries ancient years ago. Lower cost Ford EVs, etc have been driving around for a while. So why do arabesques for Jaguar? You weren't objective enough to note the $100,000 price tag; there's no objective analysis that makes Jaguar EVs competitive with Tesla's model 3 today. Nor are you objective enough to answer any of my other points, such as the inefficiency of Jaguar's car, contra your denial of my statement that "Tesla's motors are quite advanced." It would be civil not to just ignore points you can't answer.
    - Nomentatus 8y ago
      Just realized "that 1,000 shipped" or "delivered" may just refer to their test drive cars; they may not have sent one to a customer yet.