In terms of rifles, the relevant calculation would be more along the lines of the probability of a calamity happening and the rifle coming in handy, versus the

In terms of rifles, the relevant calculation would be more along the lines of the probability of a calamity happening and the rifle coming in handy, versus the probability that the rifle is abused in some way (stolen, harmful accident or suicide). I generally believe that those with prepper mentality downplay the latter probabilities because those are more under their control. Preppers tend to be control freaks, and worry much more about exogenous risks than risks they feel they can personally manage. However, this is likely fallacious reasoning. Everyone runs a risk of a mental/emotional break, or an act of carelessness leading to an accident.