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Any yet, few carriage makers made the transition to automobiles successfully (Buick was one that did.) Being able to make the body is one thing, being able to m

Any yet, few carriage makers made the transition to automobiles successfully (Buick was one that did.) Being able to make the body is one thing, being able to make a very different drive train is something else.

clouddrover 8y ago
I don't think the analogy works. An internal combustion engine is more complicated than an electric motor. If anything, going electric simplifies their cars. The car manufacturers know what they're doing and they're now investing heavily in electric: https://www.businessinsider.com/mercedes-reveals-plans-to-dominate-ev-market-2018-1?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/mercedes-reveals-plans-to-do...
- Nomentatus 8y ago
  Tesla's motors are quite advanced - and at the heart of an electric motor is materials science, which is very complex and amenable to multiple trade secrets. The first internal combustion engines were vastly simpler than the motor in your blender. There too, it was actually casting tech and materials science that really mattered. Ditto re batteries. I wish the big companies luck, and they have finally woken up - but across a vast range of business history giving a multiple year lead can easily be fatal to incumbents, no matter how wonderful they were at the last tech. Investment isn't enough, I recommend Clayton Christensen's works, or just view some of his excellent Youtube videos (Innovator's Dilemma being his most famous book.)
  - clouddrover 8y ago
    > Tesla's motors are quite advanced And yet a low volume brand like Jaguar can produce a competitive electric car. What's going to happen when Mercedes releases multiple electric models? As the article says, in 2017 Mercedes sold 2.3 million cars. Tesla sold 101,000. > they have finally woken up It's less about them waking up and more about it finally being worth their time. They operate at a larger scale than Tesla, they have existing product lines, and why stop making what continues to sell? A bigger motivation for them is that multiple countries have announced future bans on non-electric vehicles. They need to produce electrics to keep selling cars. > across a vast range of business history giving a multiple year lead can easily be fatal to incumbents I don't think so in this case. The incumbents have second mover advantage. Tesla has grown the early market for electric cars, they've set a benchmark, and they're now going to get out-produced by the larger manufacturers. When everyone's selling electric cars, why am I buying a Tesla?
    - Nomentatus 8y ago
      There's no competitive Jaguar EV yet. It's not competitive until it's actually out there competing, with a margin above costs, in quantities above 1,000 a month at sedan prices. Right now it's a concept car being shown around; you can't buy one and have it delivered, the announced model will be high-end and c'mon man: seriously, there's no shortage of EV concept EVs in the world now. From an article published today: "The I-Pace SUV, launched this week..." "I-Pace starts at $119,000, about $35,000 below the Model X, Tesla’s SUV." "Test drives of I-Pace started this week..." https://www.theaustralian.com.au/life/motoring/jaguar-makes-marque-in-race-to-electric-vehicles/news-story/9fe012db57c2dd61003086b37a5eb4d3 https://www.theaustralian.com.au/life/motoring/jaguar-makes-... And within a few days: "While the I-Pace is an athletic prodigy, it doesn't do much to advance the EV state of the art. The sole battery pack, a 90.0-kWh unit, is EPA rated for 234 miles between charges. Tesla's Model X earns a 238-mile rating with a 75.0-kWh battery, and a Chevy Bolt covers that distance with just 60.0 kilowatt-hours. Perhaps the Jag's inefficiency is the price you pay for an EV that doesn't look like a suppository." https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2019-jaguar-i-pace-by-the-numbers https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2019-jaguar-i-pace-by-t... https://electrek.co/2018/08/23/jaguar-e-type-zero-production-electric-ev-conversion/ https://electrek.co/2018/08/23/jaguar-e-type-zero-production... https://www.techradar.com/news/jaguar-i-pace-the-future-now https://www.techradar.com/news/jaguar-i-pace-the-future-now Why shill for this firm? It's really great at hyping itself. Production is the test, it may happen, and Jaguar might even be able to compete at the very high end: but it's not out there competing now, and won't be trying sedan sales for years, if ever. You only have a second-mover advantage if you have a better tech that can leapfrog the first tech; Google did, Watt did, Westinghouse did but this is the exception, not the rule.
      - clouddrover 8y ago
        > Right now it's a concept car being shown around; you can't buy one and have it delivered You can buy a Jaguar I-Pace and have it delivered: https://electrek.co/2018/10/17/jaguar-starts-i-pace-deliveries-us/ https://electrek.co/2018/10/17/jaguar-starts-i-pace-deliveri... https://www.electrive.com/2018/10/01/jaguar-i-pace-delivered-to-germany-in-limited-volume/ https://www.electrive.com/2018/10/01/jaguar-i-pace-delivered... https://insideevs.com/in-norway-jaguar-i-pace-400-deliveries/ https://insideevs.com/in-norway-jaguar-i-pace-400-deliveries... And the current and future competition is already hurting Tesla sales in Europe: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-11/jaguar-i-pace-and-other-rivals-a-headache-for-tesla-s-elon-musk https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-11/jaguar-i-... > Why shill for this firm? I'm not shilling for anyone, son. I'm just objective.

clouddrover 8y ago

I don't think the analogy works. An internal combustion engine is more complicated than an electric motor. If anything, going electric simplifies their cars. The car manufacturers know what they're doing and they're now investing heavily in electric: https://www.businessinsider.com/mercedes-reveals-plans-to-dominate-ev-market-2018-1?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/mercedes-reveals-plans-to-do...

Nomentatus 8y ago
Tesla's motors are quite advanced - and at the heart of an electric motor is materials science, which is very complex and amenable to multiple trade secrets. The first internal combustion engines were vastly simpler than the motor in your blender. There too, it was actually casting tech and materials science that really mattered. Ditto re batteries. I wish the big companies luck, and they have finally woken up - but across a vast range of business history giving a multiple year lead can easily be fatal to incumbents, no matter how wonderful they were at the last tech. Investment isn't enough, I recommend Clayton Christensen's works, or just view some of his excellent Youtube videos (Innovator's Dilemma being his most famous book.)
- clouddrover 8y ago
  > Tesla's motors are quite advanced And yet a low volume brand like Jaguar can produce a competitive electric car. What's going to happen when Mercedes releases multiple electric models? As the article says, in 2017 Mercedes sold 2.3 million cars. Tesla sold 101,000. > they have finally woken up It's less about them waking up and more about it finally being worth their time. They operate at a larger scale than Tesla, they have existing product lines, and why stop making what continues to sell? A bigger motivation for them is that multiple countries have announced future bans on non-electric vehicles. They need to produce electrics to keep selling cars. > across a vast range of business history giving a multiple year lead can easily be fatal to incumbents I don't think so in this case. The incumbents have second mover advantage. Tesla has grown the early market for electric cars, they've set a benchmark, and they're now going to get out-produced by the larger manufacturers. When everyone's selling electric cars, why am I buying a Tesla?
  - Nomentatus 8y ago
    There's no competitive Jaguar EV yet. It's not competitive until it's actually out there competing, with a margin above costs, in quantities above 1,000 a month at sedan prices. Right now it's a concept car being shown around; you can't buy one and have it delivered, the announced model will be high-end and c'mon man: seriously, there's no shortage of EV concept EVs in the world now. From an article published today: "The I-Pace SUV, launched this week..." "I-Pace starts at $119,000, about $35,000 below the Model X, Tesla’s SUV." "Test drives of I-Pace started this week..." https://www.theaustralian.com.au/life/motoring/jaguar-makes-marque-in-race-to-electric-vehicles/news-story/9fe012db57c2dd61003086b37a5eb4d3 https://www.theaustralian.com.au/life/motoring/jaguar-makes-... And within a few days: "While the I-Pace is an athletic prodigy, it doesn't do much to advance the EV state of the art. The sole battery pack, a 90.0-kWh unit, is EPA rated for 234 miles between charges. Tesla's Model X earns a 238-mile rating with a 75.0-kWh battery, and a Chevy Bolt covers that distance with just 60.0 kilowatt-hours. Perhaps the Jag's inefficiency is the price you pay for an EV that doesn't look like a suppository." https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2019-jaguar-i-pace-by-the-numbers https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2019-jaguar-i-pace-by-t... https://electrek.co/2018/08/23/jaguar-e-type-zero-production-electric-ev-conversion/ https://electrek.co/2018/08/23/jaguar-e-type-zero-production... https://www.techradar.com/news/jaguar-i-pace-the-future-now https://www.techradar.com/news/jaguar-i-pace-the-future-now Why shill for this firm? It's really great at hyping itself. Production is the test, it may happen, and Jaguar might even be able to compete at the very high end: but it's not out there competing now, and won't be trying sedan sales for years, if ever. You only have a second-mover advantage if you have a better tech that can leapfrog the first tech; Google did, Watt did, Westinghouse did but this is the exception, not the rule.
    - clouddrover 8y ago
      > Right now it's a concept car being shown around; you can't buy one and have it delivered You can buy a Jaguar I-Pace and have it delivered: https://electrek.co/2018/10/17/jaguar-starts-i-pace-deliveries-us/ https://electrek.co/2018/10/17/jaguar-starts-i-pace-deliveri... https://www.electrive.com/2018/10/01/jaguar-i-pace-delivered-to-germany-in-limited-volume/ https://www.electrive.com/2018/10/01/jaguar-i-pace-delivered... https://insideevs.com/in-norway-jaguar-i-pace-400-deliveries/ https://insideevs.com/in-norway-jaguar-i-pace-400-deliveries... And the current and future competition is already hurting Tesla sales in Europe: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-11/jaguar-i-pace-and-other-rivals-a-headache-for-tesla-s-elon-musk https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-11/jaguar-i-... > Why shill for this firm? I'm not shilling for anyone, son. I'm just objective.