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To my (very) untrained mind, it does sound like a scifi thriller plot: that is, extremely implausible. First, the logistics of doing gene modifications for 100
by ryanwaggoner 8y ago
To my (very) untrained mind, it does sound like a scifi thriller plot: that is, extremely implausible.
First, the logistics of doing gene modifications for 1000 babies and then leaving them on 1000 doorsteps across the a country like the US without getting caught or anyone catching on seems....challenging.
Second, each baby won't have two children, at least not in any developed country. The birth rate per woman in the US is at like 1.8 and likely to fall further by the time these babies are able to procreate. This is well below the replacement rate, so even if you select the first generation to only be girls, the second generation would only be ~half girls and it'll shrink from there. So if the birth rate falls to 1.5 and remains constant, the second generation would be 1500, but only 750 girls. The next generation would be 1125, but only 562 girls, etc.
Third, even if the birth rate was higher, this would still take forever to have any noticeable effect. Like centuries.
Fourth, how do you ensure that these mutations don't migrate into your country? Especially over that kind of time span.
Fifth, would these mutations even be stable or predictable over time? No idea, not my field, but I'd be curious. Also, it seems like there's a very good chance they'd be detected with future technology and genetic screening.
Finally, this kind of centuries-long quest would compete with a lot of more time-tested ways to destabilize a country. Why not just go to war, use biological weapons, propaganda, economics warfare, cyber warfare, etc, etc? So much easier and you get your results in a decade instead of 300 years.
- arethuza 8y agoAn even better thriller plot would be for there to be some completely unpredicted positive benefit of the change - e.g. that the modified kids are far more intelligent or immune to heart disease or <something>.