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Even if we were to stipulate his 10% number, that's 4.3% of cloud formation based on cosmic rays. Not insignificant. Your repeated contention that pollution a

Even if we were to stipulate his 10% number, that's 4.3% of cloud formation based on cosmic rays. Not insignificant. Your repeated contention that pollution aerosols are of equal magnitude to cosmic rays contribution requires a large helping of evidence to back it up, given the huge quantity of cosmic rays that impact the troposphere.

Comevius 8y ago
"requires a large helping of evidence to back it up" Those are available at http://cloud.web.cern.ch/content/publications http://cloud.web.cern.ch/content/publications. The experiments are started back in 2009. See Wikipedia for a simplified description of the results so far. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CLOUD_experiment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CLOUD_experiment Even if you think that cosmic rays are the bread and butter of cloud formation, the net effect would be global cooling. Clouds reflect more energy back into space than they do back to the ground. I would also like to mention that this cosmic ray climate change denialism started with the media misreporting Henrik Svensmark's paper. The Daily Express itself said "Winter is coming: Exploding stars could lead to ICE AGE warn scientists" https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/894696/ice-age-weather-winter-is-coming-supernova-exploding-stars https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/894696/ice-age-weathe.... Most of the media attention was on the sensationalist claim that cosmic rays are causing climate change, from which the various Facebook people extrapolated cosmic rays = global warming. Just so you know, this is the original source of this claim. The paper itself is about aerosol microphysics, but that's not as exciting as "Giant EXPLODING stars FREEZING Earth".
- robotrout 8y ago
  This is new. Coauthored by a NASA scientist. Check it out, I think you'll be interested. ;-) https://arxiv.org/pdf/1812.02692.pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/1812.02692.pdf 4 Conclusion We have shown a strong correlation between solar and tropospheric variability, in that swings from El Ni˜no to La Ni˜na are related to the phase of the solar cycle’s “fiducial clock,” and that that clock does not run from the canonical solar minimum or maximum, but instead resets when all old cycle flux is gone from the solar disk. While the exact mechanism remains to be elucidated, changes in cosmic ray flux appear to the be the driver of these ENSO swings. Finally, in the absence of sensitivity to solar-driven CRF variations in current coupled climate models, we have a year or so to wait to see if this indicator pans out. However, should the coming terminator be followed by such an ENSO swing then we must seriously consider the capability of coupled global terrestrial modeling efforts to capture “step-function” events, and assess how complex the Sun-Earth connection is, with particular attention to the relationship between incoming cosmic rays and clouds/ precipitation over our oceans.
  - Comevius 8y ago
    This is a great paper actually. It depends directly on the premise that cosmic rays cause drastic changes in cloud microphysics. The proof presented for this is a statistical correlation between termination points of sun activity and ENSO (El Nino, La Nina). They plan to establish causation by predicting ENSO changes based on solar activity, which is good. Once they do that, they will need to prove that cosmic rays are more important in cloud microphysics than the CERN CLOUD experiments suggests so far. This is what real science is. Great find.

Comevius 8y ago

"requires a large helping of evidence to back it up" Those are available at http://cloud.web.cern.ch/content/publications http://cloud.web.cern.ch/content/publications. The experiments are started back in 2009. See Wikipedia for a simplified description of the results so far. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CLOUD_experiment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CLOUD_experiment Even if you think that cosmic rays are the bread and butter of cloud formation, the net effect would be global cooling. Clouds reflect more energy back into space than they do back to the ground. I would also like to mention that this cosmic ray climate change denialism started with the media misreporting Henrik Svensmark's paper. The Daily Express itself said "Winter is coming: Exploding stars could lead to ICE AGE warn scientists" https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/894696/ice-age-weather-winter-is-coming-supernova-exploding-stars https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/894696/ice-age-weathe.... Most of the media attention was on the sensationalist claim that cosmic rays are causing climate change, from which the various Facebook people extrapolated cosmic rays = global warming. Just so you know, this is the original source of this claim. The paper itself is about aerosol microphysics, but that's not as exciting as "Giant EXPLODING stars FREEZING Earth".

robotrout 8y ago
This is new. Coauthored by a NASA scientist. Check it out, I think you'll be interested. ;-) https://arxiv.org/pdf/1812.02692.pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/1812.02692.pdf 4 Conclusion We have shown a strong correlation between solar and tropospheric variability, in that swings from El Ni˜no to La Ni˜na are related to the phase of the solar cycle’s “fiducial clock,” and that that clock does not run from the canonical solar minimum or maximum, but instead resets when all old cycle flux is gone from the solar disk. While the exact mechanism remains to be elucidated, changes in cosmic ray flux appear to the be the driver of these ENSO swings. Finally, in the absence of sensitivity to solar-driven CRF variations in current coupled climate models, we have a year or so to wait to see if this indicator pans out. However, should the coming terminator be followed by such an ENSO swing then we must seriously consider the capability of coupled global terrestrial modeling efforts to capture “step-function” events, and assess how complex the Sun-Earth connection is, with particular attention to the relationship between incoming cosmic rays and clouds/ precipitation over our oceans.
- Comevius 8y ago
  This is a great paper actually. It depends directly on the premise that cosmic rays cause drastic changes in cloud microphysics. The proof presented for this is a statistical correlation between termination points of sun activity and ENSO (El Nino, La Nina). They plan to establish causation by predicting ENSO changes based on solar activity, which is good. Once they do that, they will need to prove that cosmic rays are more important in cloud microphysics than the CERN CLOUD experiments suggests so far. This is what real science is. Great find.