4 ms·

Self driving cars are expected roll out in the same time frame as this rail project. I think they change the ridership equation. The drive from LAX to SFO is ab

Self driving cars are expected roll out in the same time frame as this rail project. I think they change the ridership equation. The drive from LAX to SFO is about 6 hours, 3 hours longer than by HSR. But if I can work or sleep in the back I'd prefer to take the car. The car gives me more flexibility at the destination and more privacy, comfort and cargo space. When self driving cars become sufficiently trustworthy a better solution might be a hybrid: high speed self driving car lanes.

chrischen 8y ago
Cars may become self driving, but that won't change the fundamental efficiency problem in that you can only fit so many people in a private car. What you're describing can already be done by calling a Lyft, albeit at slightly higher costs than a self driving car.
- CamperBob2 8y ago
  A network of self-driving cars is a train, or could be considered one if engineered properly. Of course, self-driving cars don't run on fixed rails, which costs them a lot of popularity around here. People don't seem to understand that fixed rail is only good for transporting lots and lots of people, very efficiently and safely, from one place where they don't want to be to another place where they don't want to be.
  - jwr 8y ago
    Well, that depends on how you build your railways. The way I see it done in the US this is indeed the case, as the stations (especially in California) seem to be in bizarre places and there is rarely a way to get to say an airport by train. But you can also build railways that make sense. See Japan for an excellent example, as well as most of Europe. These get you from where you are to where you want to be quickly and efficiently.
    - chrischen 8y ago
      I fully support public transit, including trains, but the geography of the US is not conducive to dense trains due to the urban sprawl. Ideally the sprawl is minimized for maximum efficiency (in both enhanced inter-personal cooperation, living cost) but it's hard to sell that when gas is cheap, and land is plenty. There's another issue unique to the US, is that there is a diverse spectrum of races, income levels, and cultural groups that make it hard for these different groups to live together in a dense area peacefully (as compared to a homogenous place like Japan). Much of the inane urban planning in The US is actually a result of people just trying to prevent black people or poor people from moving into their neighborhoods.
  - arethuza 8y ago
    Well, where I live train stations are generally located very centrally and conveniently in the cities I go to regularly. I'd far rather get a train into the local cities than drive - which would take longer and cost more.
    - CamperBob2 8y ago
      What part of California do you live in?
      - arethuza 8y ago
        I don't - but your statement above seemed to be applying to fixed rail in general and not just in California. Edit: As someone who generally likes trains I've tried to use them in California and found it pretty much impossible - but that's a problem with California not "fixed rail".
- hirundo 8y ago
  As Uber is a major investor in self-driving tech, self driving short term rentals are all but inevitable, and likely to become the normal way cars are used. You can rent the whole car or pay less by car pooling, managed by an app. Probably it still will never be as energy efficient as a train on rails, but it's a lot better than one car one rider. And unlike the train, it can easily drop one rider off anywhere along the way. Or combine the two: turn trains into land ferries where the route allows, and drive road cars onto train cars on one end and off on the other.
  - matchbok 8y ago
    Uber is nowhere near a "leader" in the space. If by leader you mean stealing tech from Google, then yes.
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
melling 8y ago
Brad Templeton made this argument several years ago: https://singularityhub.com/2012/09/04/can-high-speed-rail-compete-with-self-driven-cars-and-all-the-technology-of-the-future/ https://singularityhub.com/2012/09/04/can-high-speed-rail-co... I tend to disagree. You can move a lot more people more efficiently by train. The train can’t take the direct route because land is now too expensive, versus 40 years ago when the idea was first raised. It’s unfortunate that it wasn’t built in the 1970’s because we’d now be talking about replacing it with a 350 mph maglev in 30 years.
usaar333 8y ago
If you are talking about taking a car solo, that's pretty expensive. It's hard to imagine a marginal cost under $0.23/mile for driving [1], so you are looking at a round-trip solo cost of $132 minimum - that's higher than flying (if you can plan it). Either way, I'm not sure how much autonomy changes things. You can get luxury buses overnight for $115 overnight (https://www.latimes.com/travel/deals/la-tr-money-20170903-story.html https://www.latimes.com/travel/deals/la-tr-money-20170903-st...) already which probably beats the comfort of a car anyway - how much will not paying a driver cut costs? [1] http://www.forthgo.com/blog/2007/05/24/marginal-cost-of-driving/ http://www.forthgo.com/blog/2007/05/24/marginal-cost-of-driv...
- briandear 8y ago
  A bus is great: until you arrive at your destination and have a meeting in Palo Alto.
- sand500 8y ago
  I would expect it to be like renting a more expensive car but you can sleep in it for the ride over. Cost needs to beat luxury bus or flight + cost of ubering around in the city
richardknop 8y ago
It's also expected that a manned mission to Mars will launch in 2024, that doesn't mean it will actually happen. Personally, I'm quite skeptical about self driving cars hype and think people should at least consider possibility it's much further out then hype articles are trying to make us believe.

chrischen 8y ago

Cars may become self driving, but that won't change the fundamental efficiency problem in that you can only fit so many people in a private car. What you're describing can already be done by calling a Lyft, albeit at slightly higher costs than a self driving car.

CamperBob2 8y ago
A network of self-driving cars is a train, or could be considered one if engineered properly. Of course, self-driving cars don't run on fixed rails, which costs them a lot of popularity around here. People don't seem to understand that fixed rail is only good for transporting lots and lots of people, very efficiently and safely, from one place where they don't want to be to another place where they don't want to be.
- jwr 8y ago
  Well, that depends on how you build your railways. The way I see it done in the US this is indeed the case, as the stations (especially in California) seem to be in bizarre places and there is rarely a way to get to say an airport by train. But you can also build railways that make sense. See Japan for an excellent example, as well as most of Europe. These get you from where you are to where you want to be quickly and efficiently.
  - chrischen 8y ago
    I fully support public transit, including trains, but the geography of the US is not conducive to dense trains due to the urban sprawl. Ideally the sprawl is minimized for maximum efficiency (in both enhanced inter-personal cooperation, living cost) but it's hard to sell that when gas is cheap, and land is plenty. There's another issue unique to the US, is that there is a diverse spectrum of races, income levels, and cultural groups that make it hard for these different groups to live together in a dense area peacefully (as compared to a homogenous place like Japan). Much of the inane urban planning in The US is actually a result of people just trying to prevent black people or poor people from moving into their neighborhoods.
- arethuza 8y ago
  Well, where I live train stations are generally located very centrally and conveniently in the cities I go to regularly. I'd far rather get a train into the local cities than drive - which would take longer and cost more.
  - CamperBob2 8y ago
    What part of California do you live in?
    - arethuza 8y ago
      I don't - but your statement above seemed to be applying to fixed rail in general and not just in California. Edit: As someone who generally likes trains I've tried to use them in California and found it pretty much impossible - but that's a problem with California not "fixed rail".
hirundo 8y ago
As Uber is a major investor in self-driving tech, self driving short term rentals are all but inevitable, and likely to become the normal way cars are used. You can rent the whole car or pay less by car pooling, managed by an app. Probably it still will never be as energy efficient as a train on rails, but it's a lot better than one car one rider. And unlike the train, it can easily drop one rider off anywhere along the way. Or combine the two: turn trains into land ferries where the route allows, and drive road cars onto train cars on one end and off on the other.
- matchbok 8y ago
  Uber is nowhere near a "leader" in the space. If by leader you mean stealing tech from Google, then yes.

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

melling 8y ago

Brad Templeton made this argument several years ago: https://singularityhub.com/2012/09/04/can-high-speed-rail-compete-with-self-driven-cars-and-all-the-technology-of-the-future/ https://singularityhub.com/2012/09/04/can-high-speed-rail-co... I tend to disagree. You can move a lot more people more efficiently by train. The train can’t take the direct route because land is now too expensive, versus 40 years ago when the idea was first raised. It’s unfortunate that it wasn’t built in the 1970’s because we’d now be talking about replacing it with a 350 mph maglev in 30 years.

usaar333 8y ago

If you are talking about taking a car solo, that's pretty expensive. It's hard to imagine a marginal cost under $0.23/mile for driving [1], so you are looking at a round-trip solo cost of $132 minimum - that's higher than flying (if you can plan it). Either way, I'm not sure how much autonomy changes things. You can get luxury buses overnight for $115 overnight (https://www.latimes.com/travel/deals/la-tr-money-20170903-story.html https://www.latimes.com/travel/deals/la-tr-money-20170903-st...) already which probably beats the comfort of a car anyway - how much will not paying a driver cut costs? [1] http://www.forthgo.com/blog/2007/05/24/marginal-cost-of-driving/ http://www.forthgo.com/blog/2007/05/24/marginal-cost-of-driv...

briandear 8y ago
A bus is great: until you arrive at your destination and have a meeting in Palo Alto.
sand500 8y ago
I would expect it to be like renting a more expensive car but you can sleep in it for the ride over. Cost needs to beat luxury bus or flight + cost of ubering around in the city

richardknop 8y ago

It's also expected that a manned mission to Mars will launch in 2024, that doesn't mean it will actually happen. Personally, I'm quite skeptical about self driving cars hype and think people should at least consider possibility it's much further out then hype articles are trying to make us believe.