3 ms·

TBH, I'm not really following your logic here. While obviously a 15% reduction in cost cannot happen yearly, the Moore's law comparison is still relatively accu

by jsight 8y ago

TBH, I'm not really following your logic here. While obviously a 15% reduction in cost cannot happen yearly, the Moore's law comparison is still relatively accurate. Those Lithium Ion batteries that haven't changed in decades? They were only commercially released in 1991, less than three decades ago. I feel like people have a hard time seeing that a curve is still exponential when it moves at ~4% a year, as batteries have for the past century or so. But that still means that the technology could effectively double in ~15 years. How many ICE applications become irrelevant at that point? And which ones become irrelevant at various points in between? The battery revolution is in full swing.

BeeOnRope 8y ago
> Those Lithium Ion batteries that haven't changed in decades? I mean the basic chemistries haven't changed in decades. Li-ion batteries were understood and experimented on long before they became commercially viable. The basic chemistry is the same as it was back then. There have been various improvements in packaging and chemistry/anode tweaks that have maybe resulted in a doubling of capacity in that time. > I feel like people have a hard time seeing that a curve is still exponential when it moves at ~4% a year, as batteries have for the past century or so It is actually a hard problem to see if something is exponential at very low growth rates. Like the economy used to grow at 5%, then 4%, then 3%, now 2% - is it really growing "exponentially" or are we trying to fit an exponential curve to something sub-exponential? After all, if you take the measurement of anything at times T0 and T1, you can calculate the rate of growth in % terms, which by its very units implies exponential growth, but it may not be. So if Li-ion batteries keep dropping in price by say 15% +/- 5% for the next five years, you won't really have enough info to say who was right. You can fit other curves to that data. Only when you have many years with a high enough growth rate, like Moore's law, can you really be sure exponential is the only curve that fits. > The battery revolution is in full swing. I don't disagree - batteries are everywhere and becoming cheaper and better in many respects. It just won't look anything like Moore's law long term.
- jsight 8y ago
  I see your point now, and I largely agree with it. I do think that some of the same problems apply to Moore's law, though. At any given point, it could have been off by a significant margin and occasionally looked really dicey. Basically, predictions are hard. :)

by jsight 8y ago

BeeOnRope 8y ago

> Those Lithium Ion batteries that haven't changed in decades? I mean the basic chemistries haven't changed in decades. Li-ion batteries were understood and experimented on long before they became commercially viable. The basic chemistry is the same as it was back then. There have been various improvements in packaging and chemistry/anode tweaks that have maybe resulted in a doubling of capacity in that time. > I feel like people have a hard time seeing that a curve is still exponential when it moves at ~4% a year, as batteries have for the past century or so It is actually a hard problem to see if something is exponential at very low growth rates. Like the economy used to grow at 5%, then 4%, then 3%, now 2% - is it really growing "exponentially" or are we trying to fit an exponential curve to something sub-exponential? After all, if you take the measurement of anything at times T0 and T1, you can calculate the rate of growth in % terms, which by its very units implies exponential growth, but it may not be. So if Li-ion batteries keep dropping in price by say 15% +/- 5% for the next five years, you won't really have enough info to say who was right. You can fit other curves to that data. Only when you have many years with a high enough growth rate, like Moore's law, can you really be sure exponential is the only curve that fits. > The battery revolution is in full swing. I don't disagree - batteries are everywhere and becoming cheaper and better in many respects. It just won't look anything like Moore's law long term.

jsight 8y ago
I see your point now, and I largely agree with it. I do think that some of the same problems apply to Moore's law, though. At any given point, it could have been off by a significant margin and occasionally looked really dicey. Basically, predictions are hard. :)