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My feeling is that this may be the breakthrough moment for Mastodon.

Kye 8y ago
I don't think there will be one single moment. Every stumble from a big silo leads to a huge burst of growth and a return to a slightly higher norm. It's more likely this slow transfer of users will continue until the narrative is more "Mastodon finishes off [x]" for each one and less "users are fleeing [x] for Mastodon". Tumblr/Twitter/Facebook/etc are going to die the same way malls do. One decade they're a big deal, the next people's slow shift in preferences make them irrelevant. At least they won't leave rotting husks this time.
criddell 8y ago
Is there an example where a centralized commercial service was successfully replaced by a more open, federated service?
- Kye 8y ago
  The web replaced AOL and other dial-up portals.
  - JulianMorrison 8y ago
    And Microsoft repeatedly tried to stuff the genie back in the bottle in the early years by centralizing the portal, and then the technologies, unsuccessfully.
- JulianMorrison 8y ago
  The electronic mail that came before SMTP would be a good example.
  - criddell 8y ago
    Email is a good example and somebody else mentioned the web in general. I think the big difference there is that there are game changing advantages to end users being able to send email anywhere and to access all of the web rather than what was essentially one web site. Federating Tumblr (and Twitter with Mastodon) seems like a lateral move at best. The worst case is that it makes it harder to use and so it might even be a step backwards.
tzfld 8y ago
I can't see how an average Tumblr user is aware of Mastodon.
- LaikaF 8y ago
  Even of the ones who are, a lot of are turned off by the UI
nafey 8y ago
"This is going to be the year of Mastodon." Sounds oddly familiar.
- zimpenfish 8y ago
  Followed closely by "This is the year of Linux on the desktop", I imagine.
DarthTetanus 8y ago
People have been saying that about Diaspora as well for nearly a decade.

Kye 8y ago

I don't think there will be one single moment. Every stumble from a big silo leads to a huge burst of growth and a return to a slightly higher norm. It's more likely this slow transfer of users will continue until the narrative is more "Mastodon finishes off [x]" for each one and less "users are fleeing [x] for Mastodon". Tumblr/Twitter/Facebook/etc are going to die the same way malls do. One decade they're a big deal, the next people's slow shift in preferences make them irrelevant. At least they won't leave rotting husks this time.

criddell 8y ago

Is there an example where a centralized commercial service was successfully replaced by a more open, federated service?

Kye 8y ago
The web replaced AOL and other dial-up portals.
- JulianMorrison 8y ago
  And Microsoft repeatedly tried to stuff the genie back in the bottle in the early years by centralizing the portal, and then the technologies, unsuccessfully.
JulianMorrison 8y ago
The electronic mail that came before SMTP would be a good example.
- criddell 8y ago
  Email is a good example and somebody else mentioned the web in general. I think the big difference there is that there are game changing advantages to end users being able to send email anywhere and to access all of the web rather than what was essentially one web site. Federating Tumblr (and Twitter with Mastodon) seems like a lateral move at best. The worst case is that it makes it harder to use and so it might even be a step backwards.

tzfld 8y ago

I can't see how an average Tumblr user is aware of Mastodon.

LaikaF 8y ago
Even of the ones who are, a lot of are turned off by the UI

nafey 8y ago

"This is going to be the year of Mastodon." Sounds oddly familiar.

zimpenfish 8y ago
Followed closely by "This is the year of Linux on the desktop", I imagine.

DarthTetanus 8y ago

People have been saying that about Diaspora as well for nearly a decade.