Worth noting that unlike previous business cycles the Fed is manipulating both the long and short end of the curve. Quantitative Tightening (QT) is the Fed's pr

Worth noting that unlike previous business cycles the Fed is manipulating both the long and short end of the curve. Quantitative Tightening (QT) is the Fed's program to sell and/or let expire the long-term Treasuries it bought during QE 1/2/3. As the same time, the Fed is raising short term interest rates using its tried-and true headline short-term interest rate target. This is not just unusual - it's unprecedented. QT has the effect of suppressing the yield curve inversion signal (by artificially increasing long-term rates). As a result, the gap between the next yield curve inversion (the one mentioned in the article hardly qualifies) and the next recession could be surprisingly short. Backing off now on QT and short term raising, with unemployment at a very low point and inflation ramping up, would be lethal to the Fed's credibility. Whatever Powell says to try to talk the stock market up, he's locked and loaded and can't do much beyond stick with the program: triggering the next recession.