Nice write up. But I want to point out that interest rates are leading indicators of the economy, it doesn't follow the economy. It's why the inverted yield cu

Nice write up. But I want to point out that interest rates are leading indicators of the economy, it doesn't follow the economy. It's why the inverted yield curve is one of the widely looked at indicators for future economic health. So the yield curve inversion isn't saying the economy right now isn't doing well. What it is saying is that the market ( or a large percentage of institutional investors ) think the economy won't do well in the future. As you noted, it's only a slight inversion of only the 3 and 5 year, so it isn't that alarming for the moment. Just as important as the yield curve is what the FED is going to do with interest rates. If they consistently raise it every quarter for the foreseeable future, then the odds of a recession will increase considerably.