4 ms·

Based on past patterns, we now have about 15 months before a formal recession is declared. This is rough and imperfect, but many other metrics are pointing to b

by tabtab 8y ago

Based on past patterns, we now have about 15 months before a formal recession is declared. This is rough and imperfect, but many other metrics are pointing to both the end of the bull market and a coming recession. I've been monitoring the econ because I plan to invest in real-estate and stocks during the next slump. [Corrected "bear" typo.]

cm2187 8y ago
* the end of the bull market
shostack 8y ago
>"I've been monitoring the econ because I plan to invest in real-estate and stocks during the next slump." Which raises the question of "isn't every other investor?" And if that's the case, how much of that has the market already factored into pricing? For example, I hear a lot of people in the Bay Area talking about saving up for when the next crash occurs so they can buy real estate cheap. But if there's sufficient pent up demand and capital, that can dampen the impact like what appears to have happened with the 2008 recession[1], only perhaps magnified after this bull run. [1] https://www.bayareamarketreports.com/trend/3-recessions-2-bubbles-and-a-baby https://www.bayareamarketreports.com/trend/3-recessions-2-bu...
- tabtab 8y ago
  Going back roughly 4 decades, the best time to buy real-estate for investment has been during or just after recessions. Have investors changed after those four decades? If by chance real-estate doesn't go down during the next slump, then perhaps stocks will; I got choice. It's unlikely that neither will shift downward, and I might skip investing if both stay high. Interest rates on constructed real-estate is also lower during slumps. Of course investors could be wrong, it happens. But buy-low-sell-high has on average worked best. It's one of Warren Buffett's key strategies (although arguable he is buy-low-and-keep).
airstrike 8y ago
Keep in mind the next recession may very well not have anything to do with real estate. We also just went through a prolonged period of record low interest rates during which you could finance real estate really cheaply (though prices could have been inflated from excess demand, but [a] I'm no real estate expert and [b] this could vary significantly from location to location).
FavouriteColour 8y ago
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fallingknife.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fallingknife.asp

by tabtab 8y ago

cm2187 8y ago

* the end of the bull market

shostack 8y ago

>"I've been monitoring the econ because I plan to invest in real-estate and stocks during the next slump." Which raises the question of "isn't every other investor?" And if that's the case, how much of that has the market already factored into pricing? For example, I hear a lot of people in the Bay Area talking about saving up for when the next crash occurs so they can buy real estate cheap. But if there's sufficient pent up demand and capital, that can dampen the impact like what appears to have happened with the 2008 recession[1], only perhaps magnified after this bull run. [1] https://www.bayareamarketreports.com/trend/3-recessions-2-bubbles-and-a-baby https://www.bayareamarketreports.com/trend/3-recessions-2-bu...

tabtab 8y ago
Going back roughly 4 decades, the best time to buy real-estate for investment has been during or just after recessions. Have investors changed after those four decades? If by chance real-estate doesn't go down during the next slump, then perhaps stocks will; I got choice. It's unlikely that neither will shift downward, and I might skip investing if both stay high. Interest rates on constructed real-estate is also lower during slumps. Of course investors could be wrong, it happens. But buy-low-sell-high has on average worked best. It's one of Warren Buffett's key strategies (although arguable he is buy-low-and-keep).

airstrike 8y ago

Keep in mind the next recession may very well not have anything to do with real estate. We also just went through a prolonged period of record low interest rates during which you could finance real estate really cheaply (though prices could have been inflated from excess demand, but [a] I'm no real estate expert and [b] this could vary significantly from location to location).

FavouriteColour 8y ago

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fallingknife.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fallingknife.asp