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> While the shorter spreads do often invert first, there is no requirement for the longer spreads to follow. I mean, there's no "requirement", but historically
by sdinsn 8y ago
> While the shorter spreads do often invert first, there is no requirement for the longer spreads to follow.
I mean, there's no "requirement", but historically their movements correlate with each other closely with a small amount of offset.
- gibybo 8y agoSure, but I guess what I'm trying to say is that the probability of the longer spreads inverting based on this is nowhere near 100%. A tiny amount of good news in the market tomorrow will probably reverse this short term spread inversion. Bad news will likely make it worse, but it's not really at a level yet where it's indicating much yet imo.