4 ms·
A few things to consider on the topic. It is estimated that there is, on average, a ten year lag between the time CO2 is emitted and the time its maximum effec
by wilburTheDog 8y ago
A few things to consider on the topic.
It is estimated that there is, on average, a ten year lag between the time CO2 is emitted and the time its maximum effect is felt in the climate. Some estimate the lag can be even longer. So we haven't yet seen the worst of the ~36GtCO2/yr we've been releasing into the air for the last ten years or so.(1)
Methane is a much stronger greenhouse gas than CO2.(2) And it is at the heart of one of the positive feedback loops we have started by warming the earth. The arctic permafrost contains a difficult to estimate but staggeringly large amount (in the Gigatons) of methane, both in the form of methane hydrates (frozen methane) and stored carboniferous materials which, when no longer frozen, are quickly turned into methane by bacteria.(3) At this point existing warming of the planet has progressed to the point that there is no way to stop a massive arctic methane release.(4) And, in fact, if you look at the recent satellite data(5) you will see that the methane levels at most layers of the atmosphere are higher than the satellite instruments are capable of measuring.
And reducing our emissions may make things worse. The Aerosol Masking Effect (aka global dimming) is what scientists are calling the fact that sulfur and other pollutants in the air can reflect sunlight away from the earth and cool the planet.(6) If we stopped all CO2 emissions today the global temperature would rapidly rise as the aerosols fell from the atmosphere.
There's a lot more, but I'm feeling too much anxiety about this to go on.
1. http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/3/031001 http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/3/031...
2. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-bad-of-a-greenhouse-gas-is-methane/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-bad-of-a-gree...
3. https://envisionation.co.uk/index.php/nick-breeze/203-subsea-permafrost-on-east-siberian-arctic-shelf-now-in-accelerated-decline https://envisionation.co.uk/index.php/nick-breeze/203-subsea...
4. https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2785/unexpected-future-boost-of-methane-possible-from-arctic-permafrost/ https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2785/unexpected-future-boost-o...
5. https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi/m1/rp/mrm_t1_D3.html https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi...
6. https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/03/our-aerosol-emissions-are-blocking-a-third-of-the-climate-warming/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/03/our-aerosol-emission...