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It's looking like it's peaked, 2018 data is still provisional, but is currently expected to show a modest decline after the final numbers are in. 11/30 article

It's looking like it's peaked, 2018 data is still provisional, but is currently expected to show a modest decline after the final numbers are in. 11/30 article on topic: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/11/30/after-record-number-us-deaths-opioid-epidemic-may-be-receding/?utm_term=.37f14699ff32 https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/11/30/after-rec... Data source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/drug-overdose-data.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/drug-overdose-data.htm There is certainly far more work to be done.

wgerard 8y ago
Curious because it's not mentioned: How much of that is due to higher availability/usage of Narcan?
- hackeraccount 8y ago
  There's research to suggest that there's an element of moral hazzard that comes with the availability of Narcan. see: https://www.npr.org/templates/transcript/transcript.php?storyId=661011560 https://www.npr.org/templates/transcript/transcript.php?stor...
- volkl48 8y ago
  Not really something this dataset (which is just about # of deaths + drug that caused them) can tell you. I'd imagine you'd need some sort of formal study of the data to try to assign why deaths are starting to decline/plateau and what share a certain thing is responsible for, there are other possible causes. ------- Opiate prescriptions are falling pretty significantly. Number of prescriptions is down 22% from 2012-17, and volume (mg of opiates dispensed) dropped 12% in 2017 alone. https://www.aafp.org/news/health-of-the-public/20180425opioidstudy.html https://www.aafp.org/news/health-of-the-public/20180425opioi... That could be contributing to a decline in the "pipeline" of new addicts. Less people starting on them and lower doses and shorter durations when they are prescribed. It would make sense for a decline spurred by that to not show up in opiate deaths for a few years, my impression is that most people spiral downward for a while before actually dying/ODing.
will_brown 8y ago
I think that peak opiates will prove to be true. The government has cracked down on physicians prescribing them and pharmacies filling them. None of my pharmacist friends will even fill an opioid anymore until the patient has filled and tried using a Rx Tylenol first.
- loeg 8y ago
  Why the fuck would anyone pay for a highly qualified pharmacist to fill tylenol when patients can just buy the regular kind in the drug store and take 1.5 (or whatever the prescription is for)?
  - L_Rahman 8y ago
    GP might be referring to a Tylenol with Codeine that's only available with a prescription. I may be wrong however because codeine is still an opioid.
  - will_brown 8y ago
    Over the counter Tylenol is not the same as Rx Tylenol. And you will do it because due to the crackdown on physicians all their new Rx say don’t fill the opioid until the patient has tried the Tylenol.
    - loeg 8y ago
      Pray tell, what is the difference between tylenol and explicitly non-opioid Rx tylenol, aside from the dose of acetaminophen per pill? And if the difference is merely dose and you're suggesting people should do it or otherwise they won't get the effective painkillers, this seems like an obvious injection of cost disease into the existing stupidly expensive healthcare system.
      - will_brown 8y ago
        >you're suggesting people should do it I never suggested people do anything. Just explaining certain changes to the system as a result of the crack down. But I think the thought is requiring the Rx Tylenol be tried first does successfully deter people who fit drug seeking behavior and second physicians were to often writing opioids as a first line of defense to pain, whereas Tylenol will work just fine for most. My guess is studies also show that overall healthcare costs go down and not up as you say. Maybe in those instances a patient really needs the opioid for pain they have a slight cost increase, but for many others it will save them from addiction, weed out a lot of drug seeking patients and the costs associated with addiction/hospitalization/OD/etc.... There are a lot of hidden costs in opioid abuse. Still it’s not my rules or changes, if you don’t like it and think you can show in the aggregate these changes are driving up costs in healthcare to the detriment of patients who legitimately need opioids, write your congressman. But I don’t think to many people will give your stance a sympathetic ear so long as people who do need them can still get them.

wgerard 8y ago

Curious because it's not mentioned: How much of that is due to higher availability/usage of Narcan?

hackeraccount 8y ago
There's research to suggest that there's an element of moral hazzard that comes with the availability of Narcan. see: https://www.npr.org/templates/transcript/transcript.php?storyId=661011560 https://www.npr.org/templates/transcript/transcript.php?stor...
volkl48 8y ago
Not really something this dataset (which is just about # of deaths + drug that caused them) can tell you. I'd imagine you'd need some sort of formal study of the data to try to assign why deaths are starting to decline/plateau and what share a certain thing is responsible for, there are other possible causes. ------- Opiate prescriptions are falling pretty significantly. Number of prescriptions is down 22% from 2012-17, and volume (mg of opiates dispensed) dropped 12% in 2017 alone. https://www.aafp.org/news/health-of-the-public/20180425opioidstudy.html https://www.aafp.org/news/health-of-the-public/20180425opioi... That could be contributing to a decline in the "pipeline" of new addicts. Less people starting on them and lower doses and shorter durations when they are prescribed. It would make sense for a decline spurred by that to not show up in opiate deaths for a few years, my impression is that most people spiral downward for a while before actually dying/ODing.

will_brown 8y ago

I think that peak opiates will prove to be true. The government has cracked down on physicians prescribing them and pharmacies filling them. None of my pharmacist friends will even fill an opioid anymore until the patient has filled and tried using a Rx Tylenol first.

loeg 8y ago
Why the fuck would anyone pay for a highly qualified pharmacist to fill tylenol when patients can just buy the regular kind in the drug store and take 1.5 (or whatever the prescription is for)?
- L_Rahman 8y ago
  GP might be referring to a Tylenol with Codeine that's only available with a prescription. I may be wrong however because codeine is still an opioid.
- will_brown 8y ago
  Over the counter Tylenol is not the same as Rx Tylenol. And you will do it because due to the crackdown on physicians all their new Rx say don’t fill the opioid until the patient has tried the Tylenol.
  - loeg 8y ago
    Pray tell, what is the difference between tylenol and explicitly non-opioid Rx tylenol, aside from the dose of acetaminophen per pill? And if the difference is merely dose and you're suggesting people should do it or otherwise they won't get the effective painkillers, this seems like an obvious injection of cost disease into the existing stupidly expensive healthcare system.
    - will_brown 8y ago
      >you're suggesting people should do it I never suggested people do anything. Just explaining certain changes to the system as a result of the crack down. But I think the thought is requiring the Rx Tylenol be tried first does successfully deter people who fit drug seeking behavior and second physicians were to often writing opioids as a first line of defense to pain, whereas Tylenol will work just fine for most. My guess is studies also show that overall healthcare costs go down and not up as you say. Maybe in those instances a patient really needs the opioid for pain they have a slight cost increase, but for many others it will save them from addiction, weed out a lot of drug seeking patients and the costs associated with addiction/hospitalization/OD/etc.... There are a lot of hidden costs in opioid abuse. Still it’s not my rules or changes, if you don’t like it and think you can show in the aggregate these changes are driving up costs in healthcare to the detriment of patients who legitimately need opioids, write your congressman. But I don’t think to many people will give your stance a sympathetic ear so long as people who do need them can still get them.