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>We're all looking at Tesla to bring electric cars to the masses. Should we be looking at China instead? Right now, Tesla consumes more than 60% of the word EV

>We're all looking at Tesla to bring electric cars to the masses. Should we be looking at China instead? Right now, Tesla consumes more than 60% of the word EV batteries and their shares is still increasing. I'm sure most of the world's EVs will be Chinese but the most high-end ones will probably be Teslas (made in Shanghai if need be). One can draw a parallel with the smartphones market :)

toine_toine 8y ago
> Right now, Tesla consumes more than 60% of the world EV batteries Not sure where you heard that but that is completely false. BYD alone shipped over 100,000 electric cars (not including buses) in the third quarter (compared to Tesla's 83,000). Other Chinese car companies BAIC, Rowe, and Geel all ship over 20k+ plug-ins per quarter.
- benj111 8y ago
  I've heard it. Eg https://www.inverse.com/article/47731-tesla-gigafactory-now-makes-more-battery-power-than-all-automakers-combined https://www.inverse.com/article/47731-tesla-gigafactory-now-... But yeah I'm not sure whether China doesn't report battery construction, or under reports or what because it sounds suspect to me also.
  - rsynnott 8y ago
    > It’s official: Tesla Gigafactory is now the largest annual producer of battery power in the automotive world Official according to who? I suspect that, like much of the less critical reporting on Tesla, it's just reprinting a press release. In any case, that doesn't match the headline; it's just claiming it's the single biggest factory. There's no substantiation of the headline at all, and looking at the numbers it cannot be true.
    - benj111 8y ago
      Well theres a tweet from Tesla which is the original source I guess. And you may have noticed how the internet gets, when Tesla/Elon says something that isn't true, so I guess theres some basis to it. The Tesla fanboyism goes both ways, there are many, many people waiting to point out they are wrong.
- _Microft 8y ago
  I think that's referring to total energy capacity and not the number of battery packs. Tesla's luxury vehicles ship with 75/90/100kWh packs while BYD's model seem to have 63kWh (not accounting for busses which seems to have about 325kWh). No definite information available for Model 3, afaik, but I heard that the long range version has a 75kWh pack (50kWh for the "normal range" model?).
benj111 8y ago
The smartphone parallel is what I was thinking of. More particularly the transition from dumb phone, to smart phone, Tha basically destroyed most of the incumbents. I take it you're saying Tesla is Apple. Perhaps, you don't have the network effects and lock in with cars, that you do with phones, and Tesla don't seem to make 'the best' hardware like Apple do, but I don't have a crystal ball either, so I won't argue.
- sumedh 8y ago
  > you don't have the network effects and lock in with cars Maybe charging stations is the network effect, Tesla has lot stations across the US so you know you wont run out of juice on your trip.
  - benj111 8y ago
    Good point. I wonder what the situation is in China. My impression in Europe and America everyone but Tesla had standardised on one charger.
  - on_and_off 8y ago
    Are we going to still have branded charging stations going forward ? It sounds a bit insane to have stations where you can get fuel for a mercedes but not a kia.
    - sumedh 8y ago
      Agree but to be fair it was Tesla who actually made electric cars popular and desirable and built all the charging stations for their cars so it does not make sense for them to give services to other electric cars unless some law forces them to do so.
      - on_and_off 8y ago
        It will probably necessitate a legislation for this but once electric cars become dominant it looks like having battery standards will be necessary.
sangnoir 8y ago
A top level commenter mentioned Geely-owned London Taxi Company is building electrified black cabs. Geely also happens to own Volvo: I think an electric Volvo will do very well in the high-end against Tesla. Also, if China decides it needs extra EV battery capacity, expect the total number to significantly increase, and Tesla's slice will shrink (in relative terms).
- Green_man 8y ago
  Volvo's ex-performance brand, polestar, is being spun off into a hybrid and electric only manufacturer. They are starting off with the Polestar 1, a hybrid sports coupe, but after that, the polestar 2 and polestar 3 are planned to be electric (sedan and suv, respectively). Polestar 1 will be out of reach for most ($150k), as well as being in a coupe form factor. its competitors will likely be honda NSX, and maybe DB11 or R8. But it will be interesting to see how Polestars future products do.
  - sangnoir 8y ago
    Car technology always filters down from high-end models to daily drivers over time - today the tech will be in Polestar, in 5 years, it will be in Volvo's generic platform covering several models. Even Tesla kicked things off with the expensive roadster and the tech filtered to cheaper cars, and this follows a long tradition (power steering, airbags, traction control, cruise control were all premium models features at some point but are now standard)

toine_toine 8y ago

> Right now, Tesla consumes more than 60% of the world EV batteries Not sure where you heard that but that is completely false. BYD alone shipped over 100,000 electric cars (not including buses) in the third quarter (compared to Tesla's 83,000). Other Chinese car companies BAIC, Rowe, and Geel all ship over 20k+ plug-ins per quarter.

benj111 8y ago
I've heard it. Eg https://www.inverse.com/article/47731-tesla-gigafactory-now-makes-more-battery-power-than-all-automakers-combined https://www.inverse.com/article/47731-tesla-gigafactory-now-... But yeah I'm not sure whether China doesn't report battery construction, or under reports or what because it sounds suspect to me also.
- rsynnott 8y ago
  > It’s official: Tesla Gigafactory is now the largest annual producer of battery power in the automotive world Official according to who? I suspect that, like much of the less critical reporting on Tesla, it's just reprinting a press release. In any case, that doesn't match the headline; it's just claiming it's the single biggest factory. There's no substantiation of the headline at all, and looking at the numbers it cannot be true.
  - benj111 8y ago
    Well theres a tweet from Tesla which is the original source I guess. And you may have noticed how the internet gets, when Tesla/Elon says something that isn't true, so I guess theres some basis to it. The Tesla fanboyism goes both ways, there are many, many people waiting to point out they are wrong.
_Microft 8y ago
I think that's referring to total energy capacity and not the number of battery packs. Tesla's luxury vehicles ship with 75/90/100kWh packs while BYD's model seem to have 63kWh (not accounting for busses which seems to have about 325kWh). No definite information available for Model 3, afaik, but I heard that the long range version has a 75kWh pack (50kWh for the "normal range" model?).

benj111 8y ago

The smartphone parallel is what I was thinking of. More particularly the transition from dumb phone, to smart phone, Tha basically destroyed most of the incumbents. I take it you're saying Tesla is Apple. Perhaps, you don't have the network effects and lock in with cars, that you do with phones, and Tesla don't seem to make 'the best' hardware like Apple do, but I don't have a crystal ball either, so I won't argue.

sumedh 8y ago
> you don't have the network effects and lock in with cars Maybe charging stations is the network effect, Tesla has lot stations across the US so you know you wont run out of juice on your trip.
- benj111 8y ago
  Good point. I wonder what the situation is in China. My impression in Europe and America everyone but Tesla had standardised on one charger.
- on_and_off 8y ago
  Are we going to still have branded charging stations going forward ? It sounds a bit insane to have stations where you can get fuel for a mercedes but not a kia.
  - sumedh 8y ago
    Agree but to be fair it was Tesla who actually made electric cars popular and desirable and built all the charging stations for their cars so it does not make sense for them to give services to other electric cars unless some law forces them to do so.
    - on_and_off 8y ago
      It will probably necessitate a legislation for this but once electric cars become dominant it looks like having battery standards will be necessary.

sangnoir 8y ago

A top level commenter mentioned Geely-owned London Taxi Company is building electrified black cabs. Geely also happens to own Volvo: I think an electric Volvo will do very well in the high-end against Tesla. Also, if China decides it needs extra EV battery capacity, expect the total number to significantly increase, and Tesla's slice will shrink (in relative terms).

Green_man 8y ago
Volvo's ex-performance brand, polestar, is being spun off into a hybrid and electric only manufacturer. They are starting off with the Polestar 1, a hybrid sports coupe, but after that, the polestar 2 and polestar 3 are planned to be electric (sedan and suv, respectively). Polestar 1 will be out of reach for most ($150k), as well as being in a coupe form factor. its competitors will likely be honda NSX, and maybe DB11 or R8. But it will be interesting to see how Polestars future products do.
- sangnoir 8y ago
  Car technology always filters down from high-end models to daily drivers over time - today the tech will be in Polestar, in 5 years, it will be in Volvo's generic platform covering several models. Even Tesla kicked things off with the expensive roadster and the tech filtered to cheaper cars, and this follows a long tradition (power steering, airbags, traction control, cruise control were all premium models features at some point but are now standard)