Your characterization of what I said is overly simplistic and ..wrong. I am saying that even with a good sample, replication studies only have about at most an

Your characterization of what I said is overly simplistic and ..wrong. I am saying that even with a good sample, replication studies only have about at most an 80% chance to replicate a true effect for studies that had reported a "moderately-sized" effect size. A lot of other things can account for the extra 30%, including picking the more dubious of findings out there (which seem to be mainly social psychology not cognitive psychology studies). Looking at your other comments on HN, you seem to love throwing bombs and trolling.