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The article that goes deeper into the betting markets says that they suspect many of the traders were people invested in the reproducibility crisis and related
by repolfx 8y ago
The article that goes deeper into the betting markets says that they suspect many of the traders were people invested in the reproducibility crisis and related research, that is, they are more knowledgable than the general public would be.
That doesn't take away from your point, but the problem here may be more refined than "the public" vs "psychologists". It may be more like "some psychologists" vs "journal editors and other psychologists".
- ALittleLight 8y agoWhat I wrote was influenced by the fact that I had taken a "Psychology Replication Quiz" which I'll link to below. The quiz presents you with the thesis of a study and asks whether you think it will replicate. When I took it the first time I got ten questions correct out of ten. I took the quiz again a moment before writing this comment and got nine out of ten (I think I was hurrying this time). The average person taking the quiz gets seven out ten correct. The depressing part about this quiz is how easy it is. You just have to think for a moment if what they are describing matches what you know about human nature. Some statements just feel very intuitive and likely, and those replicate. Other statements seem quite wild and abstract, and those don't replicate. I haven't seen a list of the 28 papers they looked at here, but I'd bet it is similar. Some of the findings are incredible (and not reproducible) while others are intuitive and reproducible. I'd encourage you to take the quiz below and see if you feel the same way about the results as I do. Psychology Replication Quiz - https://80000hours.org/psychology-replication-quiz/ https://80000hours.org/psychology-replication-quiz/