This reminds me of one of my little sayings... "Common sense is just a first approximation of reality". So yeah, common sense is more likely right than not, but

This reminds me of one of my little sayings... "Common sense is just a first approximation of reality". So yeah, common sense is more likely right than not, but it is not reliable. If you need a reliable answer, you need to go deeper than common sense. Of course, intuition is somewhat different, in that intuition can be wrong more often than right. See Hans Rosling's findings in Factfulness to grok that, and start to understand just how dumb you actually are.