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My intuition tells me that these three conditions are correct. Should I trust it? While these conditions intuitively make sense, the example that he used to su
by meditativeape 8y ago
My intuition tells me that these three conditions are correct. Should I trust it?
While these conditions intuitively make sense, the example that he used to support his conclusions feels very weak. If the only information I know about this person is she read fluently at a young age, I don't think I can make a good guess of her GPA in college at all. There's no "right intuition" in this case, because so many other variables are in play.
- projectramo 8y agoI think what you are missing is "base rate neglect." Let's say the overall average GPA is 3 (or 3.1 for women): https://blog.prepscholar.com/whats-the-average-high-school-gpa https://blog.prepscholar.com/whats-the-average-high-school-g... Then you would expect that to swamp the information that this person was an early reader. You might let the early reader have a slight effect.
- gronne 8y agoI think that was his point.