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He does have a point about the population aging, but that is by about 2050 if I remember. They have time to turn it around and make laws to pro-create more (th

by chadp 16y ago

He does have a point about the population aging, but that is by about 2050 if I remember. They have time to turn it around and make laws to pro-create more (they are already loosening the 1 child laws in some places as tests) Other than that, I think he is wrong. India may produce many managers of companies but it does not matter. The chinese will just buy the companies of the world and keep existing managers on staff as employees. The chinese don't really need to show their faces, they just hold the money, the shares and set the rules. (the golden rule. those who hold the gold, makes the rules) Next, China has a leg up for infrastructure, it is pretty awesome how fast they are building airports, road networks, train systems, power grids, water processing, energy creation, real estate and entire cities. India can't even clean the garbage from their streets let alone agree on major infrastructure investments. New infrastructure spurs and even creates whole new local domestic economies on many levels. One party rule. Basically, the party can plan the next 5 years, next 50 years and 100 years and execute in amazing detail. They can and do get their best party minds together and plan what is good for the people and actually do it. Can many other countries do the same? Can you see India planning for the next 2 years, let alone 50 years? English language. They start very young to learn English now in school, it is mandatory. There are 6 million university graduates per year. In 5-10 years, there will be 6-10 million english speaking graduates coming from China - PER YEAR. Energy. Both china and india are net importers of energy. China is making deals to get Energy (ie. oil) everywhere and anywhere they can. Nigeria, Yemen, Saudi, Iran, Iraq, Caribbean, Canada and every place on the planet they can get it from. Everywhere the 'West' thinks it is not moral, the Chinese are there building infrastructure, making deals and securing energy for their people. Smart. What is India doing to secure their future energy needs? Middle class. Have you been there to see the 300+ million people that are now buying apartments, cars, make up, creams, designer clothes et al.? Yup, more people than all of the USA is their newly created middle class. Beijing alone is putting 1000 new cars on the road EVERY SINGLE DAY. There are hundreds more cities with more than 1-2 million people. Functional diaspora. This argument is pretty moot or even leans towards the Chinese I think. So what you have Indian individuals "integrating in companies". They are individuals, and it means they can produce workers that integrate in other societies, as individuals. The Chinese also have diaspora. It is called China Town. In almost every city in the world has one. They are organized, band together, get real estate in close proximity, create small businesses and make their way and excel in almost every foreign country in the world. Do you see any "Indian Town's" in any city in the world? My money is on China for sure.

mrtron 16y ago
You are crazy if you think there is a middle class of 300+ million in China right now. 1/3 of their population is not buying houses and cars. There is nowhere near 300 million cars in China to begin with. I have been there - and haven't seen anyone buying cars, designer clothes and apartments except expats and a few rich locals kids. Beijing is putting 1000 new cars on streets that are already in gridlock. One party rule sounds like it could accomplish a lot in 'the best long term interest of many'. I am not sure there is evidence of this working. They have completely rebuilt entire cities like Beijing and Shanghai - but at the cost of other regions. Have they put a modern hospital in every region of the country?
- chadp 16y ago
  So by your one trip there probably some years ago, you have an all knowingness about their economy? It is acknowledged that somewhere around 25% of the population is now middle class. "A McKinsey report, Preparing for China’s Urban Billion, predicts that China’s urban population will expand from 604 million in 2008 to 926 million in 2025, and hit the one billion mark (out of a total population of 1.5 billion) by 2030. By 2025, China’s urban economy will generate over 90 percent of its GDP, over 200 of China’s cities will have more than one million residents, and approximately 70 percent of its urban population will be middle class." and "While China's middle class right now consists of only a quarter of the population, they are set to grow to nearly half the total population by 2020, according to Euromonitor. That means that 700 million out of the estimated 1.45 billion people of 2020 will have an income of roughly between 80,000RMB (11,800USD) to 120,000RMB (17,700USD) a year."
  - mrtron 16y ago
    I don't claim to know all of their economy, I am just stating what I know. Additionally it was months ago, not years ago. Reports estimating numbers in 2025 also doesn't represent what is going on there now. Additionally 12k-17k per year isn't enough to afford much in their urban areas. They wouldn't be able to afford to go out for coffee and meals regularly let alone own an apartment in the city or a car.

by chadp 16y ago

mrtron 16y ago

You are crazy if you think there is a middle class of 300+ million in China right now. 1/3 of their population is not buying houses and cars. There is nowhere near 300 million cars in China to begin with. I have been there - and haven't seen anyone buying cars, designer clothes and apartments except expats and a few rich locals kids. Beijing is putting 1000 new cars on streets that are already in gridlock. One party rule sounds like it could accomplish a lot in 'the best long term interest of many'. I am not sure there is evidence of this working. They have completely rebuilt entire cities like Beijing and Shanghai - but at the cost of other regions. Have they put a modern hospital in every region of the country?

chadp 16y ago
So by your one trip there probably some years ago, you have an all knowingness about their economy? It is acknowledged that somewhere around 25% of the population is now middle class. "A McKinsey report, Preparing for China’s Urban Billion, predicts that China’s urban population will expand from 604 million in 2008 to 926 million in 2025, and hit the one billion mark (out of a total population of 1.5 billion) by 2030. By 2025, China’s urban economy will generate over 90 percent of its GDP, over 200 of China’s cities will have more than one million residents, and approximately 70 percent of its urban population will be middle class." and "While China's middle class right now consists of only a quarter of the population, they are set to grow to nearly half the total population by 2020, according to Euromonitor. That means that 700 million out of the estimated 1.45 billion people of 2020 will have an income of roughly between 80,000RMB (11,800USD) to 120,000RMB (17,700USD) a year."
- mrtron 16y ago
  I don't claim to know all of their economy, I am just stating what I know. Additionally it was months ago, not years ago. Reports estimating numbers in 2025 also doesn't represent what is going on there now. Additionally 12k-17k per year isn't enough to afford much in their urban areas. They wouldn't be able to afford to go out for coffee and meals regularly let alone own an apartment in the city or a car.