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> The odds seem pretty good that we will find extraterrestrial life, someday. I know I have an unpopular opinion here, but I just don't see it happening. It se

by Pigo 8y ago

> The odds seem pretty good that we will find extraterrestrial life, someday. I know I have an unpopular opinion here, but I just don't see it happening. It seems like wishful thinking to expect to find life extraterrestrial life. Of course, I'd love to find out I'm wrong. But what is the observable data to suggest otherwise?

JoeAltmaier 8y ago
The prevalence of planets around other suns. The exchange of physical material between planets. The recent visit by an extra-solar asteroid, which if it had been involved in a collision could have ended up in part on our planets. The frequency of protein and DNA precursors in ordinary organic chemistry. I think of the early history of our own planet. Sun and shade, heat and cold, tides causing wet and dry in phases unsynchronized with the other effect. A tiny random chemistry lab on every grain of sand on every beach for a billion years. What are the odds that life wouldn't happen? A more interesting statistic in my view.
- Pigo 8y ago
  I guess finding that instance of life would go a long way to proving that it's just a statistical probability. I'm just a doubter by nature. I sometimes wonder what people's motivations are for looking for the things they do. The Universe is so endlessly fascinating, there's so many questions we don't even know to ask yet.
magicnubs 8y ago
I think it depends on what "someday" means to you. Within our lifetimes? Almost certainly not. Within 100 generations? Still, probably not. But "eventually"? I could see that being likely, if: * humanity doesn't extinguish it's own flame * there isn't some freak, inescapable, immitigable cosmic occurrence before we've gotten out of our own solar system * we develop technology for near-lightspeed or FTL travel If the above were true, I think the only thing that would stop us from finding non-Earth-origin life some time before the heat death of the universe would be if there is actually no other life out there, which I think is unlikely. However... I do think that there's basically 0.0% chance of finding extraterrestrial life in the deserts of Earth, excepting in the case that the spontaneous generation of simple life is exceedingly common. But, I guess determining how common that might be is one of the goals of the search.
sealthedeal 8y ago
agreed
V-2 8y ago
The odds will vary greatly depending on whether we mean any life (microbial or unicellular life seems most likely), or complex, let alone sentient life. Technically the term encompasses the former too, but all too often people seem to equate it with the latter. Personally I am more convinced by the "rare Earth" hypothesis too, and I don't believe humanity will discover complex alien life ever thorough its existence. Obviously I understand why this point of view gets the boos.
gmiller123456 8y ago
You need to account for the fact that we really haven't been able to do much searching on any other planet. Mars looks very promising as far as once having harbored life. Even though we don't have conclusive evidence to say so, if you forced scientists to bet their life's savings one way or the other, the vast majority of them would probably bet Mars did harbor life at some point. You'd probably find a non trivial number of them also betting it currently harbors life.
- Pigo 8y ago
  You're definitely right that, we haven't been able to. It seems we have guesses based on assumptions based on peripheral observations. Like I said, I would love to find out that there is, but I haven't seen anything that has convinced me that it's only a matter of time until we do.

by Pigo 8y ago

JoeAltmaier 8y ago

The prevalence of planets around other suns. The exchange of physical material between planets. The recent visit by an extra-solar asteroid, which if it had been involved in a collision could have ended up in part on our planets. The frequency of protein and DNA precursors in ordinary organic chemistry. I think of the early history of our own planet. Sun and shade, heat and cold, tides causing wet and dry in phases unsynchronized with the other effect. A tiny random chemistry lab on every grain of sand on every beach for a billion years. What are the odds that life wouldn't happen? A more interesting statistic in my view.

Pigo 8y ago
I guess finding that instance of life would go a long way to proving that it's just a statistical probability. I'm just a doubter by nature. I sometimes wonder what people's motivations are for looking for the things they do. The Universe is so endlessly fascinating, there's so many questions we don't even know to ask yet.

magicnubs 8y ago

I think it depends on what "someday" means to you. Within our lifetimes? Almost certainly not. Within 100 generations? Still, probably not. But "eventually"? I could see that being likely, if: * humanity doesn't extinguish it's own flame * there isn't some freak, inescapable, immitigable cosmic occurrence before we've gotten out of our own solar system * we develop technology for near-lightspeed or FTL travel If the above were true, I think the only thing that would stop us from finding non-Earth-origin life some time before the heat death of the universe would be if there is actually no other life out there, which I think is unlikely. However... I do think that there's basically 0.0% chance of finding extraterrestrial life in the deserts of Earth, excepting in the case that the spontaneous generation of simple life is exceedingly common. But, I guess determining how common that might be is one of the goals of the search.

sealthedeal 8y ago

agreed

V-2 8y ago

The odds will vary greatly depending on whether we mean any life (microbial or unicellular life seems most likely), or complex, let alone sentient life. Technically the term encompasses the former too, but all too often people seem to equate it with the latter. Personally I am more convinced by the "rare Earth" hypothesis too, and I don't believe humanity will discover complex alien life ever thorough its existence. Obviously I understand why this point of view gets the boos.

gmiller123456 8y ago

You need to account for the fact that we really haven't been able to do much searching on any other planet. Mars looks very promising as far as once having harbored life. Even though we don't have conclusive evidence to say so, if you forced scientists to bet their life's savings one way or the other, the vast majority of them would probably bet Mars did harbor life at some point. You'd probably find a non trivial number of them also betting it currently harbors life.

Pigo 8y ago
You're definitely right that, we haven't been able to. It seems we have guesses based on assumptions based on peripheral observations. Like I said, I would love to find out that there is, but I haven't seen anything that has convinced me that it's only a matter of time until we do.