5 ms·

The Chinese Decade

35 points by Garbage 16y ago

8ren 16y ago
What is a functional disporia? From what my Chinese relatives say, most Chinese businesses are family businesses. Fukuyama's Trust: The Social Virtues and the Creation of Prosperity confirms this, and says that it naturally imposes a size limit. So that may explain the underrepresentation in public corporations.
- sethg 16y ago
  Yeah... my impression is that there are plenty of ethnic Chinese abroad in small businesses and the professions. I’m not convinced that you have to have lots of people in your ethnic group becoming C-level executives before your diaspora is considered “functional”.
- deleted 16y ago
  [deleted]
PakG1 16y ago
Just a copy and paste of a comment I wrote on his blog.... ---start comment--- This is funny, I just wrote about the Chinese middle class a couple of days ago: http://www.pakg1.net/2010/10/changing-chinese-mindset-towards.html http://www.pakg1.net/2010/10/changing-chinese-mindset-toward... I think your points were correct maybe 3 years ago. I don't think they are now. China still has a lot of issues that could cause it to stumble, but I don't think a lack of a middle class is one of them. As well, I cannot think of more Indian executives than I can Chinese executives. In fact, I think Chinese executives by far have the lead, simply because HK and Taiwan are more westernized and advanced than maybe even India. The simple fact is that HK and Taiwan play nicer with China than a lot of people know, simply because the economics make it worthwhile. There may be a lot of political strife in the news, but there's a lot of money flowing behind the scenes. Finally, as an expat who's living in China right now, I can honestly say that not only does this middle class exist, their English is pretty darn good. And I'm finding that increasingly often, they have a 3rd language (in my case, I'm running into a ton of Japanese speakers). So in all, I think this view is a tad outdated. India probably has a bright future, but as anyone who attended the APCAC 2010 conference this year can attest (and even Indian panel speakers there attested to this), India is way behind in a number of areas, especially the infrastructure necessary to really rev its economy up. That investment is only now just starting due to the fact that their democratic government apparently has its first real majority government ever. And you may wish to fix this apparent contradiction when comparing the middle classes of the two countries.... "China has the population, the will, the educational system, the foreign currency reserves — everything to make it the next global superpower except two things: 1) an emerging middle class generation comparable to our Baby Boomers" "What I find interesting is that most people just take it as bible truth that China will be the next superpower because it is so number-oriented (huge infrastructure dollars, huge manufacturing dollars, higher per capital wealth than India, bigger middle class, etc…)." ---end comment---
- mrtron 16y ago
  I don't agree with HK and strongly disagree with Taiwan. If you erroneously include HK and Taiwan executives as "Chinese middle class", the tiny population of these regions still represent a tiny percentage of the area. Will there be a larget Indian or Chinese middle class? I agree with the post that India will have a rising middle class of hundreds of millions before China. China's top down politics results in hoarding and exporting cash for wealthy families. Successful Indians seem to have a stronger reinvest in technology mindset.
  - PakG1 16y ago
    When did I call executives middle class? He made two points, one about an alleged lack of a Chinese middle class, and the other about the breadth of Indian executives. They are not the same, and I did not respond as if they were the same. You totally misread me. Furthermore, if you haven't seen a middle class here in your visit here a few months ago, you haven't interacted with people here. I'm living here in China right now, and I interact with the middle class every day at work, on the streets, in community centres, etc. It's for real. If you live here for a few months and seriously interact with the locals and STILL for some reason don't see a middle class, then I'll start taking your opinion seriously on that matter. But it'll be hard because I'm experiencing the exact opposite. For the record, the super rich are not the middle class. They are the super rich. Don't get them confused. The Hiltons and other big family money in the US can't be considered middle class either, and it really seems to me that you're referring to those types as your "middle class".
chadp 16y ago
He does have a point about the population aging, but that is by about 2050 if I remember. They have time to turn it around and make laws to pro-create more (they are already loosening the 1 child laws in some places as tests) Other than that, I think he is wrong. India may produce many managers of companies but it does not matter. The chinese will just buy the companies of the world and keep existing managers on staff as employees. The chinese don't really need to show their faces, they just hold the money, the shares and set the rules. (the golden rule. those who hold the gold, makes the rules) Next, China has a leg up for infrastructure, it is pretty awesome how fast they are building airports, road networks, train systems, power grids, water processing, energy creation, real estate and entire cities. India can't even clean the garbage from their streets let alone agree on major infrastructure investments. New infrastructure spurs and even creates whole new local domestic economies on many levels. One party rule. Basically, the party can plan the next 5 years, next 50 years and 100 years and execute in amazing detail. They can and do get their best party minds together and plan what is good for the people and actually do it. Can many other countries do the same? Can you see India planning for the next 2 years, let alone 50 years? English language. They start very young to learn English now in school, it is mandatory. There are 6 million university graduates per year. In 5-10 years, there will be 6-10 million english speaking graduates coming from China - PER YEAR. Energy. Both china and india are net importers of energy. China is making deals to get Energy (ie. oil) everywhere and anywhere they can. Nigeria, Yemen, Saudi, Iran, Iraq, Caribbean, Canada and every place on the planet they can get it from. Everywhere the 'West' thinks it is not moral, the Chinese are there building infrastructure, making deals and securing energy for their people. Smart. What is India doing to secure their future energy needs? Middle class. Have you been there to see the 300+ million people that are now buying apartments, cars, make up, creams, designer clothes et al.? Yup, more people than all of the USA is their newly created middle class. Beijing alone is putting 1000 new cars on the road EVERY SINGLE DAY. There are hundreds more cities with more than 1-2 million people. Functional diaspora. This argument is pretty moot or even leans towards the Chinese I think. So what you have Indian individuals "integrating in companies". They are individuals, and it means they can produce workers that integrate in other societies, as individuals. The Chinese also have diaspora. It is called China Town. In almost every city in the world has one. They are organized, band together, get real estate in close proximity, create small businesses and make their way and excel in almost every foreign country in the world. Do you see any "Indian Town's" in any city in the world? My money is on China for sure.
dageshi 16y ago
I have to say I am quite worried about China's economy if I'm honest. Everytime you build a big black box that sucks in and spews money but nobody is entirely sure how it works (think American mortgage market/banking system circa 2008) and anytime you try and question why it works your told to shut up because you just don't "understand the new way" I think you should be deeply suspicious. China is in most respects one giant black box. My main concern is that they've done a fairly similar thing to what Britain did back around 2000. When the US hit a recession from the .com bust we responded by opening up the credit taps and made doing anything and everything on cheap credit very easy. We avoided recession but in doing so we caused one hell of a banking/housing/credit bubble ten years later. I suspect the chinese have unfortunately done the same, they've opened up the credit taps hugely in order to glide through the slowdown in the west, but with that much credit sloshing around there will always be problems. I think those problems are China's regional and local governments, who more or less run their own little fiefdoms and have been financing much of their operations from land sales and off balance sheet investments vehicles...
- vorg 16y ago
  Whenever I walk into a hole-in-the-wall shop here in China on a weekday, the PC screens are alight with share trading graphs. As they said 10 years ago in the US, "when the taxi drivers are giving share tips, it's time to get out." Both the Chinese housing and stock markets could blow at anytime, and the Chinese don't have the institutional memory to deal with it.
  - dageshi 16y ago
    And ironically this is around the time of the "new leader" coming to the fore. Since the last two were preordained by Deng Xiaoping and this one won't be I expect they will try very hard to paper over any cracks in order to maintain an orderly succession. I do not like that particular mix of politics/economics all coming together in one time period.
rdl 16y ago
In Silicon Valley, I've never noticed a shortage of either Indian or Chinese engineers and executives. Both seem to have a pretty functional diaspora, at least on the west coast. Maybe in Boston, the Chinese community is more insular. I also think a perpetuation of huge income/lifestyle disparity is much more likely in India and China than it would be in the west -- a middle class of 50mm vs. 300mm in China isn't necessarily going to greatly hinder them if those 50mm are in the right industries. China can continue to trade domestic consumer quality of life for external competitiveness. It's probably not the best thing for maximizing utility for the Chinese people overall, but it certainly maximizes national prestige.
deleted 16y ago
[deleted]
mark_l_watson 16y ago
I was just in China and one thing that Cringely probably does not get right is: in China you have a strong majority of people who see it as a social responsibility to work together to improve the economy. One of my guides gave me quite a little speil about this, he was earnest, and I basically believed him. Otherwise, I agree with the article. BTW, I think it is Thomas Friedman who has been pointing out that a lot of people in India are disappointed with US leadership in the world right now: not effective and they want us as a good buffer to Chinese hegemony.
natch 16y ago
When I look at the executives he's talking about here in the US, I don't see Indians; I see Americans of Indian origin.
aneth 16y ago
It's an interesting debate to have, but this article is a bunch of hogwash. China has a booming middle class and an extremely "functional" diaspora. http://www.wikinvest.com/concept/Rise_of_Chinas_Middle_Class http://www.wikinvest.com/concept/Rise_of_Chinas_Middle_Class
jhancock 16y ago
Cringely has a rambling thesis here. Too many loose ends to properly critique. I will give him this: looking up functional diaspora in the big G yields equally rambling results. 1 - first 2 entries are Cringely's own 2 - third entry is a Google book excerpt on "Hitler's black victims" which has no use of the word diaspora 3 - fourth is the Facebook open source "competitor"
macco 16y ago
Why is it always: they win we loose. That is nonesense. They might win, but we don't automaticly loose. There is some misconception in there. Economics aren't sports.

35 points by Garbage 16y ago

8ren 16y ago

What is a functional disporia? From what my Chinese relatives say, most Chinese businesses are family businesses. Fukuyama's Trust: The Social Virtues and the Creation of Prosperity confirms this, and says that it naturally imposes a size limit. So that may explain the underrepresentation in public corporations.

sethg 16y ago
Yeah... my impression is that there are plenty of ethnic Chinese abroad in small businesses and the professions. I’m not convinced that you have to have lots of people in your ethnic group becoming C-level executives before your diaspora is considered “functional”.
deleted 16y ago
[deleted]

PakG1 16y ago

Just a copy and paste of a comment I wrote on his blog.... ---start comment--- This is funny, I just wrote about the Chinese middle class a couple of days ago: http://www.pakg1.net/2010/10/changing-chinese-mindset-towards.html http://www.pakg1.net/2010/10/changing-chinese-mindset-toward... I think your points were correct maybe 3 years ago. I don't think they are now. China still has a lot of issues that could cause it to stumble, but I don't think a lack of a middle class is one of them. As well, I cannot think of more Indian executives than I can Chinese executives. In fact, I think Chinese executives by far have the lead, simply because HK and Taiwan are more westernized and advanced than maybe even India. The simple fact is that HK and Taiwan play nicer with China than a lot of people know, simply because the economics make it worthwhile. There may be a lot of political strife in the news, but there's a lot of money flowing behind the scenes. Finally, as an expat who's living in China right now, I can honestly say that not only does this middle class exist, their English is pretty darn good. And I'm finding that increasingly often, they have a 3rd language (in my case, I'm running into a ton of Japanese speakers). So in all, I think this view is a tad outdated. India probably has a bright future, but as anyone who attended the APCAC 2010 conference this year can attest (and even Indian panel speakers there attested to this), India is way behind in a number of areas, especially the infrastructure necessary to really rev its economy up. That investment is only now just starting due to the fact that their democratic government apparently has its first real majority government ever. And you may wish to fix this apparent contradiction when comparing the middle classes of the two countries.... "China has the population, the will, the educational system, the foreign currency reserves — everything to make it the next global superpower except two things: 1) an emerging middle class generation comparable to our Baby Boomers" "What I find interesting is that most people just take it as bible truth that China will be the next superpower because it is so number-oriented (huge infrastructure dollars, huge manufacturing dollars, higher per capital wealth than India, bigger middle class, etc…)." ---end comment---

mrtron 16y ago
I don't agree with HK and strongly disagree with Taiwan. If you erroneously include HK and Taiwan executives as "Chinese middle class", the tiny population of these regions still represent a tiny percentage of the area. Will there be a larget Indian or Chinese middle class? I agree with the post that India will have a rising middle class of hundreds of millions before China. China's top down politics results in hoarding and exporting cash for wealthy families. Successful Indians seem to have a stronger reinvest in technology mindset.
- PakG1 16y ago
  When did I call executives middle class? He made two points, one about an alleged lack of a Chinese middle class, and the other about the breadth of Indian executives. They are not the same, and I did not respond as if they were the same. You totally misread me. Furthermore, if you haven't seen a middle class here in your visit here a few months ago, you haven't interacted with people here. I'm living here in China right now, and I interact with the middle class every day at work, on the streets, in community centres, etc. It's for real. If you live here for a few months and seriously interact with the locals and STILL for some reason don't see a middle class, then I'll start taking your opinion seriously on that matter. But it'll be hard because I'm experiencing the exact opposite. For the record, the super rich are not the middle class. They are the super rich. Don't get them confused. The Hiltons and other big family money in the US can't be considered middle class either, and it really seems to me that you're referring to those types as your "middle class".

chadp 16y ago

He does have a point about the population aging, but that is by about 2050 if I remember. They have time to turn it around and make laws to pro-create more (they are already loosening the 1 child laws in some places as tests) Other than that, I think he is wrong. India may produce many managers of companies but it does not matter. The chinese will just buy the companies of the world and keep existing managers on staff as employees. The chinese don't really need to show their faces, they just hold the money, the shares and set the rules. (the golden rule. those who hold the gold, makes the rules) Next, China has a leg up for infrastructure, it is pretty awesome how fast they are building airports, road networks, train systems, power grids, water processing, energy creation, real estate and entire cities. India can't even clean the garbage from their streets let alone agree on major infrastructure investments. New infrastructure spurs and even creates whole new local domestic economies on many levels. One party rule. Basically, the party can plan the next 5 years, next 50 years and 100 years and execute in amazing detail. They can and do get their best party minds together and plan what is good for the people and actually do it. Can many other countries do the same? Can you see India planning for the next 2 years, let alone 50 years? English language. They start very young to learn English now in school, it is mandatory. There are 6 million university graduates per year. In 5-10 years, there will be 6-10 million english speaking graduates coming from China - PER YEAR. Energy. Both china and india are net importers of energy. China is making deals to get Energy (ie. oil) everywhere and anywhere they can. Nigeria, Yemen, Saudi, Iran, Iraq, Caribbean, Canada and every place on the planet they can get it from. Everywhere the 'West' thinks it is not moral, the Chinese are there building infrastructure, making deals and securing energy for their people. Smart. What is India doing to secure their future energy needs? Middle class. Have you been there to see the 300+ million people that are now buying apartments, cars, make up, creams, designer clothes et al.? Yup, more people than all of the USA is their newly created middle class. Beijing alone is putting 1000 new cars on the road EVERY SINGLE DAY. There are hundreds more cities with more than 1-2 million people. Functional diaspora. This argument is pretty moot or even leans towards the Chinese I think. So what you have Indian individuals "integrating in companies". They are individuals, and it means they can produce workers that integrate in other societies, as individuals. The Chinese also have diaspora. It is called China Town. In almost every city in the world has one. They are organized, band together, get real estate in close proximity, create small businesses and make their way and excel in almost every foreign country in the world. Do you see any "Indian Town's" in any city in the world? My money is on China for sure.

dageshi 16y ago

I have to say I am quite worried about China's economy if I'm honest. Everytime you build a big black box that sucks in and spews money but nobody is entirely sure how it works (think American mortgage market/banking system circa 2008) and anytime you try and question why it works your told to shut up because you just don't "understand the new way" I think you should be deeply suspicious. China is in most respects one giant black box. My main concern is that they've done a fairly similar thing to what Britain did back around 2000. When the US hit a recession from the .com bust we responded by opening up the credit taps and made doing anything and everything on cheap credit very easy. We avoided recession but in doing so we caused one hell of a banking/housing/credit bubble ten years later. I suspect the chinese have unfortunately done the same, they've opened up the credit taps hugely in order to glide through the slowdown in the west, but with that much credit sloshing around there will always be problems. I think those problems are China's regional and local governments, who more or less run their own little fiefdoms and have been financing much of their operations from land sales and off balance sheet investments vehicles...

vorg 16y ago
Whenever I walk into a hole-in-the-wall shop here in China on a weekday, the PC screens are alight with share trading graphs. As they said 10 years ago in the US, "when the taxi drivers are giving share tips, it's time to get out." Both the Chinese housing and stock markets could blow at anytime, and the Chinese don't have the institutional memory to deal with it.
- dageshi 16y ago
  And ironically this is around the time of the "new leader" coming to the fore. Since the last two were preordained by Deng Xiaoping and this one won't be I expect they will try very hard to paper over any cracks in order to maintain an orderly succession. I do not like that particular mix of politics/economics all coming together in one time period.

rdl 16y ago

In Silicon Valley, I've never noticed a shortage of either Indian or Chinese engineers and executives. Both seem to have a pretty functional diaspora, at least on the west coast. Maybe in Boston, the Chinese community is more insular. I also think a perpetuation of huge income/lifestyle disparity is much more likely in India and China than it would be in the west -- a middle class of 50mm vs. 300mm in China isn't necessarily going to greatly hinder them if those 50mm are in the right industries. China can continue to trade domestic consumer quality of life for external competitiveness. It's probably not the best thing for maximizing utility for the Chinese people overall, but it certainly maximizes national prestige.

deleted 16y ago

[deleted]

mark_l_watson 16y ago

I was just in China and one thing that Cringely probably does not get right is: in China you have a strong majority of people who see it as a social responsibility to work together to improve the economy. One of my guides gave me quite a little speil about this, he was earnest, and I basically believed him. Otherwise, I agree with the article. BTW, I think it is Thomas Friedman who has been pointing out that a lot of people in India are disappointed with US leadership in the world right now: not effective and they want us as a good buffer to Chinese hegemony.

natch 16y ago

When I look at the executives he's talking about here in the US, I don't see Indians; I see Americans of Indian origin.

aneth 16y ago

It's an interesting debate to have, but this article is a bunch of hogwash. China has a booming middle class and an extremely "functional" diaspora. http://www.wikinvest.com/concept/Rise_of_Chinas_Middle_Class http://www.wikinvest.com/concept/Rise_of_Chinas_Middle_Class

jhancock 16y ago

Cringely has a rambling thesis here. Too many loose ends to properly critique. I will give him this: looking up functional diaspora in the big G yields equally rambling results. 1 - first 2 entries are Cringely's own 2 - third entry is a Google book excerpt on "Hitler's black victims" which has no use of the word diaspora 3 - fourth is the Facebook open source "competitor"

macco 16y ago

Why is it always: they win we loose. That is nonesense. They might win, but we don't automaticly loose. There is some misconception in there. Economics aren't sports.