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"If demand for a particular good or service is highly elastic and AI does not completely automate the production of that good or service, then technical change
by cgrealy 8y ago
"If demand for a particular good or service is highly elastic and AI does not completely automate the production of that good or service, then technical change would create jobs rather destroy them."
This is the fundamental problem with this article IMO. It assumes that human labour will be required to fill the gaps in an automated production cycle. But the ultimate premise of automation is that there are no gaps.
If you look at something like car production, first we automate the factory line, which creates more demand for cars, so we need more designers, etc. But ultimately the design becomes automated. Well, maybe we need more factory managers or other high level executives. Leaving aside that the number of those roles is inherently limited, even those roles could eventually be automated.
- pesmhey 8y agoThe premise is no gaps, but the reality is that some gaps are more difficult to close than others. Some gaps will continue as demand increases.
- faitswulff 8y agoCar manufacturing is actually a great example of that, with Elon Musk saying "Yes, excessive automation at Tesla was a mistake." Manufacturing and "pick and place" are ongoing areas of research - for now, humans are unrivaled in them. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/13/elon-musk-admits-humans-are-sometimes-superior-to-robots.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/13/elon-musk-admits-humans-are-...
- carlmr 8y agoThe great thing about computers is that they do what you tell them to do. The bad thing about computers is that they do what you tell them to do. The world is very complex, and it's often hard for the programmer or even the person training the AI to foresee every corner case of a complex system. The good thing about humans is that they can react on very small data, by knowing things from experience. They can think about what they're doing. If we make advances toward a general AI this gap could close. Except in the media hype cycle I haven't seen any evidence that we're any closer than 50 years ago.
- TeMPOraL 8y agoThere's a trick, oft forgotten in these discussions. You don't have to just automate your existing workflow and hope not too many gaps remain. You can always build a new workflow around automation, playing to its strength, and eliminating human factor at the system level - or even business model level. Hell, iff no machine can handle a particular task, find a way to not require it at all. If your marketing team is good, it'll even sell it as a feature.