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> The home prices are the data to support my hypothesis. If there wasn't demand for houses then prices would fall. Demand for houses means people want to move t
by jimmy1 8y ago
> The home prices are the data to support my hypothesis. If there wasn't demand for houses then prices would fall. Demand for houses means people want to move there. If there were a net migration out of the state, prices would be dropping.
This is true in general, but it isn't as immediate as you are making it out to be and doesn't give you any insight into how long it takes for the price to correct itself. The migration trends are 1-2 years old at this point. If my hypothesis is correct, expect to see your pricing drops soon (towards the middle to end of next big moving season, typically May 15 to August 31st), but only to a certain level and then it will make more sense for the builder to go under and let the banks take the hit.
- vibrato 8y agoWe have a disbeliever in the efficient market hypothesis! I generally am in the same boat but have yet to turn this into significant profit.
- gamblor956 8y agoSeveral major tech companies just announced moves into Downtown LA...Almost every new apartment building built in downtown has reached 90% occupancy within 6 months. A few of them reached 95%+ occupancy within their first month. For about 2 months earlier this year, the available inventory of new condos (as in, sold by the developer) reached zero and even the supply of condos on the market dropped into the lower double digits. California is experiencing a net outward migration of people, but from the parts of California where there are already too many people, so all those people leaving has had minimal effect on the price of housing in LA or SF.