Engineers at Rocketdyne, the manufacturer, estimate the total probability [of catastrophic failure] as 1/10,000. Engineers at Marshal estimate it as 1/300, whil

Engineers at Rocketdyne, the manufacturer, estimate the total probability [of catastrophic failure] as 1/10,000. Engineers at Marshal estimate it as 1/300, while NASA management, to whom these engineers report, claims it is 1/100,000. An independent engineer consulting for NASA thought 1 or 2 per 100 a reasonable estimate. — Personal observations on the reliability of the Shuttle by R.P. Feynman http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/missions/51-l/docs/rogers-commission/Appendix-F.txt http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/missions/51-l/docs/roger... As of STS-132 2010-05-26 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STS-132 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STS-132 Total launches 131 Failures 2 Successes 129 Failure rate: 1.5%