5 ms·

Well, I'm kind of expecting that the no-deal scenario will actually happen. Then a big economic crisis will follow, making it palatable for politicians to actua

Well, I'm kind of expecting that the no-deal scenario will actually happen. Then a big economic crisis will follow, making it palatable for politicians to actually endorse a new referendum. I'm not saying what the question in such referendum would be, though. And actually, this is the reason why some remainers are voting no to the brexit deal, and it's not even a secret.

jstanley 8y ago
Why would a big economic crisis follow a no-deal brexit?
- aetherson 8y ago
  The article explains the reasoning well.
- paganel 8y ago
  Adding taxes to almost half of the UK exports virtually over night is not going to be very pleasant. And that’s going to be the least of their worries.
- jimnotgym 8y ago
  May I point to to the article the thread is about. > What to expect from a no-deal Brexit >The terrifying consequences if nothing is sorted The title and subtitle should be enough to get the gist
- simonh 8y ago
  Let me count the ways. * All our manufacturing exports to Europe would suffer tariffs. 10% on cars for example. * All our agricultural exports would be hit by tariffs. * The legal basis for many of our financial services provided to Europe would disappear. Clearing for example. * Imports and exports would suddenly be subject to customs inspections, introducing delays. No arrangements are in place for this. * Many goods manufactured in Europe only count if a certain % of value comes from Europe. Parts made in the UK would not count anymore so European manufacturers using our parts would have to find alternatives. Cars are another big example, but there are many more. * We would lose access to all the trade deals with non EU countries negotiated through the EU, which is (almost) all of them. E.g. the big new trade deal negotiated with Canada would no longer apply. Some minor trade deals through the commonwealth might survive, but it’s not much. * We would probably end up defaulting on our €38bn obligations to the EU. Not as bad as a sovereign debt default, but not by much. * Oh, and we’d probably also be in violation of our treaty obligations under the Good Friday Agreement, with unanticipatable consequences in Northern Ireland, except it wouldn’t be good. So high end manufacturing and agriculture devastated, remaining trade (globally) obstructed, financial services crippled, debt default, political instability in NI. Some of those might be cushioned, but there’s no way it can all be significantly mitigated in a few months. My hope is some sort of keep-it-as-it-is-for-now deal could be worked out. But that’s basically the May plan anyway.
  - xbmcuser 8y ago
    Many of the financial services/bank s have already moved out they won't go back even if the actual brexit doesn't happen
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
jimnotgym 8y ago
They may be voting no to the Brexit deal purely because they don't agree with it. But you are painting this as a binary situation of 'The Deal' vs No deal. There is a third option, withdrawing notice to leave. Parliament can choose to remain without any kind of referendum. In fact there was a case heard by the ECJ today to clarify this very fact. The UK's option to remain was undisputed, and the remaining legal arguments are simply over whether the remaining 27 states have to agree or not. The ruling is due at a later date.
- jstanley 8y ago
  Fancy that. Group of people who don't want a decision to go through got together and decided that there won't be any punishment if the decision doesn't go through.
  - jimnotgym 8y ago
    > punishment What on earth are you talking about?
    - jstanley 8y ago
      Presumably the only way the ECJ can enforce any of its rulings is by some sort of punishment if you don't agree with what they suggest?
      - jimnotgym 8y ago
        The ECJ is ruling on whether the EU members can stop the UK withdrawing it's notice. The EU members will of course be bound by this, if Britain withdraws it's notice to leave it will still be in the EU so of course it will be bound. You have a habit of jumping on these EU threads j? It feels like trolling to me.
        jstanley 8y ago
        The reason I comment a lot in these threads is because lots of other people post things in these threads that appear (to me) obviously wrong. There seems to be this notion that governments are what makes the world go round, and people going about their daily lives do so only by the governments' blessings. I don't believe that is the way the world works, or is even a useful way to model how the world works. I believe the world works by individuals going about their daily business, and government in practice tends to just get in the way, slow things down, and make things more expensive. I believe that a reduction of government (by leaving the EU, abolishing tariffs, abolishing immigration restrictions, etc.) is obviously the right thing to do. I am not trolling.
graeme 8y ago
Once the UK is out, it's not so easy to get back in on the same terms. They'd have to go through the whole membership process again.
- dingaling 8y ago
  > the whole membership process again Again? The UK never joined the EU through a membership process, the EU evolved around it. The terms would be different if the UK joined the EU by proper mechanism, but perhaps we shouldn't want to be in a club which has different rules for old vs new anyway?
  - graeme 8y ago
    I'm not sure I follow. Once the UK is out, it's out. In that case, to rejoin it would have to follow the process to join, no? I mean, if it was 3 weeks later and no laws had changed maybe not, but past a certain point regulations would have diverged etc
    - kyriakos 8y ago
      Even if laws hadn't changed the other members will use it as an opportunity to take away some of the special deals that UK had pre brexit.

jstanley 8y ago

Why would a big economic crisis follow a no-deal brexit?

aetherson 8y ago
The article explains the reasoning well.
paganel 8y ago
Adding taxes to almost half of the UK exports virtually over night is not going to be very pleasant. And that’s going to be the least of their worries.
jimnotgym 8y ago
May I point to to the article the thread is about. > What to expect from a no-deal Brexit >The terrifying consequences if nothing is sorted The title and subtitle should be enough to get the gist
simonh 8y ago
Let me count the ways. * All our manufacturing exports to Europe would suffer tariffs. 10% on cars for example. * All our agricultural exports would be hit by tariffs. * The legal basis for many of our financial services provided to Europe would disappear. Clearing for example. * Imports and exports would suddenly be subject to customs inspections, introducing delays. No arrangements are in place for this. * Many goods manufactured in Europe only count if a certain % of value comes from Europe. Parts made in the UK would not count anymore so European manufacturers using our parts would have to find alternatives. Cars are another big example, but there are many more. * We would lose access to all the trade deals with non EU countries negotiated through the EU, which is (almost) all of them. E.g. the big new trade deal negotiated with Canada would no longer apply. Some minor trade deals through the commonwealth might survive, but it’s not much. * We would probably end up defaulting on our €38bn obligations to the EU. Not as bad as a sovereign debt default, but not by much. * Oh, and we’d probably also be in violation of our treaty obligations under the Good Friday Agreement, with unanticipatable consequences in Northern Ireland, except it wouldn’t be good. So high end manufacturing and agriculture devastated, remaining trade (globally) obstructed, financial services crippled, debt default, political instability in NI. Some of those might be cushioned, but there’s no way it can all be significantly mitigated in a few months. My hope is some sort of keep-it-as-it-is-for-now deal could be worked out. But that’s basically the May plan anyway.
- xbmcuser 8y ago
  Many of the financial services/bank s have already moved out they won't go back even if the actual brexit doesn't happen

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

jimnotgym 8y ago

They may be voting no to the Brexit deal purely because they don't agree with it. But you are painting this as a binary situation of 'The Deal' vs No deal. There is a third option, withdrawing notice to leave. Parliament can choose to remain without any kind of referendum. In fact there was a case heard by the ECJ today to clarify this very fact. The UK's option to remain was undisputed, and the remaining legal arguments are simply over whether the remaining 27 states have to agree or not. The ruling is due at a later date.

jstanley 8y ago
Fancy that. Group of people who don't want a decision to go through got together and decided that there won't be any punishment if the decision doesn't go through.
- jimnotgym 8y ago
  > punishment What on earth are you talking about?
  - jstanley 8y ago
    Presumably the only way the ECJ can enforce any of its rulings is by some sort of punishment if you don't agree with what they suggest?
    - jimnotgym 8y ago
      The ECJ is ruling on whether the EU members can stop the UK withdrawing it's notice. The EU members will of course be bound by this, if Britain withdraws it's notice to leave it will still be in the EU so of course it will be bound. You have a habit of jumping on these EU threads j? It feels like trolling to me.
      - jstanley 8y ago
        The reason I comment a lot in these threads is because lots of other people post things in these threads that appear (to me) obviously wrong. There seems to be this notion that governments are what makes the world go round, and people going about their daily lives do so only by the governments' blessings. I don't believe that is the way the world works, or is even a useful way to model how the world works. I believe the world works by individuals going about their daily business, and government in practice tends to just get in the way, slow things down, and make things more expensive. I believe that a reduction of government (by leaving the EU, abolishing tariffs, abolishing immigration restrictions, etc.) is obviously the right thing to do. I am not trolling.

graeme 8y ago

Once the UK is out, it's not so easy to get back in on the same terms. They'd have to go through the whole membership process again.

dingaling 8y ago
> the whole membership process again Again? The UK never joined the EU through a membership process, the EU evolved around it. The terms would be different if the UK joined the EU by proper mechanism, but perhaps we shouldn't want to be in a club which has different rules for old vs new anyway?
- graeme 8y ago
  I'm not sure I follow. Once the UK is out, it's out. In that case, to rejoin it would have to follow the process to join, no? I mean, if it was 3 weeks later and no laws had changed maybe not, but past a certain point regulations would have diverged etc
  - kyriakos 8y ago
    Even if laws hadn't changed the other members will use it as an opportunity to take away some of the special deals that UK had pre brexit.