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An alternative opinion for why Carlsen offered the game 12 draw: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2018/11/game-12-draw.html https://marginalrev

An alternative opinion for why Carlsen offered the game 12 draw: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2018/11/game-12-draw.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2018/11/ga...

rtkwe 8y ago
Another is that Carlsen is very good at rapid (Carlsen 2880 vs Caruana 2789) and blitz (2939 vs 2767) formats compared Caruana so it makes sense to just take things to the tiebreakers where Carlsen has a significant advantage. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/carlsens-bizarre-decision-has-sent-the-world-chess-championship-to-overtime/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/carlsens-bizarre-decisi...
- cjbprime 8y ago
  > So it actually is a draw! (sort of) There's been a tournament of top engines playing out the position after the draw -- I think black (Carlsen) won 11 games and white won 2 games, with the rest draws. So this declaration of the lack of advantage just isn't true. > just take things to the tiebreakers where Carlsen has a significant advantage. But he had a significant advantage on the board, too. The question is the magnitude of the advantages. Caruana has previously been a world blitz champion too, so it seems unlikely that any advantage would be more than 60%-40% to Carlsen. Which seems smaller than the advantage we see from the computer tournament results.
  - rtkwe 8y ago
    Just take a look at their relative rankings though. Caruana may have previously been blitz champion but his current blitz elo is ~170 points lower than Carlsen who iirc is the current blitz champion. I'd like to see that same process repeated for all the other draws from the points of highest advantage and right before the draw too if we're going to be using it to evaluate the decision to draw. Not sure how closely the computer tournament reflects the actual progression we've seen from Carlsen and Caruana because if we just look at the pawn equivalent advantage game 12 wasn't the best game that's been fought to a draw in this series. (I know that doesn't take into account positional advantage but we don't have an easy number to sum up that over all the games).
    - rurban 8y ago
      His current low blitz ELO ranking only says that he plays less blitz than Carlsen. Possibly to catch up to Carlsen in the normal rankings, with playing lots of normal tournaments. ELO is not measuring the potential, just the rankings of wins and losses. Caruana's potential is probably the same Carlsen. One should never underestimate him.
      - rtkwe 8y ago
        Either way the 3-0 victory for Carlsen seems to support that he is better at rapid than Caruana.
        rurban 8y ago
        Yes, this was a slaughter fest. Saw it live
ipsa 8y ago
I think he was annoyed/bored. He is basically playing against a computer for an increasing number of moves. By the time the theory ends, the game is near-decided. Chess960 reveals the natural talents over the memorizers. The chess lovers complain and complain, because everybody's style is starting to mimick closer to the objective best moves. It is also a psychological move in trolling Caruana (part of the game): "You did not even try to win with white in your last game before the rapids. I'll draw in a superior position because I love my chances there."
- leesec 8y ago
  Lol you don't know what you're talking about. Carlsen played a novel moved on like move 12. There is no memorizing the enormous game tree after after a novel move like that. Caruana also obviously did try to win with white in his last game and got turned around into a pressured spot.

rtkwe 8y ago

Another is that Carlsen is very good at rapid (Carlsen 2880 vs Caruana 2789) and blitz (2939 vs 2767) formats compared Caruana so it makes sense to just take things to the tiebreakers where Carlsen has a significant advantage. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/carlsens-bizarre-decision-has-sent-the-world-chess-championship-to-overtime/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/carlsens-bizarre-decisi...

cjbprime 8y ago
> So it actually is a draw! (sort of) There's been a tournament of top engines playing out the position after the draw -- I think black (Carlsen) won 11 games and white won 2 games, with the rest draws. So this declaration of the lack of advantage just isn't true. > just take things to the tiebreakers where Carlsen has a significant advantage. But he had a significant advantage on the board, too. The question is the magnitude of the advantages. Caruana has previously been a world blitz champion too, so it seems unlikely that any advantage would be more than 60%-40% to Carlsen. Which seems smaller than the advantage we see from the computer tournament results.
- rtkwe 8y ago
  Just take a look at their relative rankings though. Caruana may have previously been blitz champion but his current blitz elo is ~170 points lower than Carlsen who iirc is the current blitz champion. I'd like to see that same process repeated for all the other draws from the points of highest advantage and right before the draw too if we're going to be using it to evaluate the decision to draw. Not sure how closely the computer tournament reflects the actual progression we've seen from Carlsen and Caruana because if we just look at the pawn equivalent advantage game 12 wasn't the best game that's been fought to a draw in this series. (I know that doesn't take into account positional advantage but we don't have an easy number to sum up that over all the games).
  - rurban 8y ago
    His current low blitz ELO ranking only says that he plays less blitz than Carlsen. Possibly to catch up to Carlsen in the normal rankings, with playing lots of normal tournaments. ELO is not measuring the potential, just the rankings of wins and losses. Caruana's potential is probably the same Carlsen. One should never underestimate him.
    - rtkwe 8y ago
      Either way the 3-0 victory for Carlsen seems to support that he is better at rapid than Caruana.
      - rurban 8y ago
        Yes, this was a slaughter fest. Saw it live

ipsa 8y ago

I think he was annoyed/bored. He is basically playing against a computer for an increasing number of moves. By the time the theory ends, the game is near-decided. Chess960 reveals the natural talents over the memorizers. The chess lovers complain and complain, because everybody's style is starting to mimick closer to the objective best moves. It is also a psychological move in trolling Caruana (part of the game): "You did not even try to win with white in your last game before the rapids. I'll draw in a superior position because I love my chances there."

leesec 8y ago
Lol you don't know what you're talking about. Carlsen played a novel moved on like move 12. There is no memorizing the enormous game tree after after a novel move like that. Caruana also obviously did try to win with white in his last game and got turned around into a pressured spot.