3 ms·

Yeah, but these guys blitz out great moves like crazy, I just don't think an extra minute is enough time to capitalize on any slight inaccuracies induced by the

by tux1968 8y ago

Yeah, but these guys blitz out great moves like crazy, I just don't think an extra minute is enough time to capitalize on any slight inaccuracies induced by the time pressure black is under. I could be wrong of course, which is why I was interested to know if there are any win ratios for the format around.

rtkwe 8y ago
Black has two disadvantages starting though, second and additional time pressure. As for the win rates I can't imagine they'd be very good data because armageddon is the format of last result for tournaments so there's likely fewer games played. On top of that there's a lot of player variation under time pressure. Some (like Carlsen who has a rapid elo of 2880 and a blitz rating of 2939) have their ELO improve as you move to faster formats while others get worse (like, unfortunately for him, Caruana who goes from rapid 2789 to blitz 2767). The rating differences alone mean Carlsen is the heavy favorite to win going into these tie breakers well before we get to the armageddon round. [1] I think given the probabilities in the 538 model Carlsen's decision makes a lot of sense. Why slug it out to a probable draw with the chance to lose out of nowhere when you can move to another format that drastically favors you? [1] https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/carlsens-bizarre-decision-has-sent-the-world-chess-championship-to-overtime/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/carlsens-bizarre-decisi...
mindgam3 8y ago
Speaking as a former world ranked competitive player who specializes in fast time controls (blitz and bullet) — you guys are severely underestimating how important the time factor is in blitz. Blitz is almost an entirely different game from classical chance. Yes, technically the rules are the same, but tactical ability and ability to think under pressure plays a massively more important role than positional ability, which tends to be the deciding factor in top level classical chess. A 5m to 4m time advantage is the equivalent of a 100-200 point handicap. Think about it... if both players are evenly matched for 30 moves taking the same amount of time, say 3m, then you end up with an interesting middlegame position where White has 2m and Black has 1m. Now you are playing bullet chess with a 2 to 1 time advantage, which is more of like a 300-400 point handicap. All that to say - blitz chess, even at the world championship level, is characterized not by "slight inaccuracies" but by major mistakes if not outright blunders. You can even have wild swings in the final minute as each player makes critical mistakes. To get a feel for chess at this speed, I highly recommend watching some bullet chess streaming videos from chess.com or lichess. It is both highly entertaining and very instructive about the time aspect of chess.

rtkwe 8y ago

Black has two disadvantages starting though, second and additional time pressure. As for the win rates I can't imagine they'd be very good data because armageddon is the format of last result for tournaments so there's likely fewer games played. On top of that there's a lot of player variation under time pressure. Some (like Carlsen who has a rapid elo of 2880 and a blitz rating of 2939) have their ELO improve as you move to faster formats while others get worse (like, unfortunately for him, Caruana who goes from rapid 2789 to blitz 2767). The rating differences alone mean Carlsen is the heavy favorite to win going into these tie breakers well before we get to the armageddon round. [1] I think given the probabilities in the 538 model Carlsen's decision makes a lot of sense. Why slug it out to a probable draw with the chance to lose out of nowhere when you can move to another format that drastically favors you? [1] https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/carlsens-bizarre-decision-has-sent-the-world-chess-championship-to-overtime/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/carlsens-bizarre-decisi...

mindgam3 8y ago

Speaking as a former world ranked competitive player who specializes in fast time controls (blitz and bullet) — you guys are severely underestimating how important the time factor is in blitz. Blitz is almost an entirely different game from classical chance. Yes, technically the rules are the same, but tactical ability and ability to think under pressure plays a massively more important role than positional ability, which tends to be the deciding factor in top level classical chess. A 5m to 4m time advantage is the equivalent of a 100-200 point handicap. Think about it... if both players are evenly matched for 30 moves taking the same amount of time, say 3m, then you end up with an interesting middlegame position where White has 2m and Black has 1m. Now you are playing bullet chess with a 2 to 1 time advantage, which is more of like a 300-400 point handicap. All that to say - blitz chess, even at the world championship level, is characterized not by "slight inaccuracies" but by major mistakes if not outright blunders. You can even have wild swings in the final minute as each player makes critical mistakes. To get a feel for chess at this speed, I highly recommend watching some bullet chess streaming videos from chess.com or lichess. It is both highly entertaining and very instructive about the time aspect of chess.