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Honestly the writing has been on the walls for quite some time now. I’ve argued this with a few applications to YC. Farming in America is about to have a hard p

Honestly the writing has been on the walls for quite some time now. I’ve argued this with a few applications to YC. Farming in America is about to have a hard pivot. I definitely see it going from large-scale, monocultural enterprises to small-scale, mostly independent, polycultural, bio-intensive, sustainable farms. (Sorry for all the buzzwords, not sure of a better all-encompassing term) If you’re looking for something to invest in it’d be AgTech with a focus on these new farmers as users.

Loughla 8y ago
Please explain. Because what I'm seeing is a pivot in exactly the other direction. Near urban centers you're seeing more 'specialty' farms like you spell out. These farms cater, almost exclusively, to the wealthy. But out in the breadbasket, there has been an absolute crush of consolidation. Fewer, larger farms are producing the goods. I argue that we're going to see (or rather are already seeing) the wal-martization of farming. Few, HUGE scale producers who work at a scale that is just so much larger than what we have now they can still turn a profit.
- allcentury 8y ago
  It's this - the margins are so slim on commercial farming that they are in the grocer range (1-7%) and the only way grocers make money is on volume. The one-off farms are great for those that can spend extra but they are not the ones feeding America right now.
- enraged_camel 8y ago
  I agree. At my local farmer's market, pretty much all the vendors sell their produce at a loss because they can't compete with big agri-business. (They continue to participate though, mostly for fun.)
- atourgates 8y ago
  Yes. You just described the split perfectly. Small scale production is going for specialty products, at higher prices, to specialty consumers. Think of a local vegetable farm that sells to farmer's markets, or a goat dairy that's making chevre to sell at specialty groceries in a 50 mile radius of their farm. On the other hand, gigantic companies are increasingly controlling land used for industrial agriculture. Near me, a recently incorporated LLC (aka holding company for investors) just paid $171-million for 14,000 acres of irrigated farmland in Eastern Washington [1]. At that scale, there's simply no way that the traditional "small family farmer" can compete with industrial ag. The few that have near me, are large families that essentially operate like a business. They've managed to hold on to their traditional farmland, and then expanded into what are essentially family-owned large-scale industrial ag operations. Good for them, but they're the strong minority. [1] https://www.heraldnet.com/business/big-farm-deal-171m-for-14500-acres-in-eastern-washington/ https://www.heraldnet.com/business/big-farm-deal-171m-for-14...
- nikanj 8y ago
  It’s a common bias to think that everyone I know eats organic, therefore everyone eats organic. From that point of view, it makes sense to predict the demise of big farms.
Spooky23 8y ago
Really? In my area (NY) farms are just dead... people are running food drives as there just isn’t a way to make money.
nine_k 8y ago
I suppose that we will see two trends, both fueled by increasingly robotic farming. * Old huge farms employing fewer and fewer people, replacing more low-skill work with machines, and possibly driving prices on some crops down. * New smaller farms, employing a small number of people, made profitable by the extensive use of the (semi-autonomous) machines, catering to specialty / niche markets, perishables, etc. Huge mono-culture fields may, or may not, be split to smaller, more diverse fields, as agriculture machines become more advanced and smart. A machine that allows for techniques that let you spend less on pest control could be attractive from a purely economic POV. Since the cost of labor is high, neither will drive agricultural employment up. They will likely still bring more variety, and more sustainability due to technology allowing nicer practices.
dbcurtis 8y ago
Wow, bold statements. Show me the math. As in, show me the before and after P&L for a large-scale mono-culture grain farmer that transitions his enterprise to your vision.
christophilus 8y ago
> a better term Permaculture, maybe? I hope you’re right.
ghthor 8y ago
This is exactly where I want my career to go. I want to own a small patch of land and I want to nurture that land to produce food. I am amassing capital now using my software engineering skills to purchase my land outright with cash.

Loughla 8y ago

Please explain. Because what I'm seeing is a pivot in exactly the other direction. Near urban centers you're seeing more 'specialty' farms like you spell out. These farms cater, almost exclusively, to the wealthy. But out in the breadbasket, there has been an absolute crush of consolidation. Fewer, larger farms are producing the goods. I argue that we're going to see (or rather are already seeing) the wal-martization of farming. Few, HUGE scale producers who work at a scale that is just so much larger than what we have now they can still turn a profit.

allcentury 8y ago
It's this - the margins are so slim on commercial farming that they are in the grocer range (1-7%) and the only way grocers make money is on volume. The one-off farms are great for those that can spend extra but they are not the ones feeding America right now.
enraged_camel 8y ago
I agree. At my local farmer's market, pretty much all the vendors sell their produce at a loss because they can't compete with big agri-business. (They continue to participate though, mostly for fun.)
atourgates 8y ago
Yes. You just described the split perfectly. Small scale production is going for specialty products, at higher prices, to specialty consumers. Think of a local vegetable farm that sells to farmer's markets, or a goat dairy that's making chevre to sell at specialty groceries in a 50 mile radius of their farm. On the other hand, gigantic companies are increasingly controlling land used for industrial agriculture. Near me, a recently incorporated LLC (aka holding company for investors) just paid $171-million for 14,000 acres of irrigated farmland in Eastern Washington [1]. At that scale, there's simply no way that the traditional "small family farmer" can compete with industrial ag. The few that have near me, are large families that essentially operate like a business. They've managed to hold on to their traditional farmland, and then expanded into what are essentially family-owned large-scale industrial ag operations. Good for them, but they're the strong minority. [1] https://www.heraldnet.com/business/big-farm-deal-171m-for-14500-acres-in-eastern-washington/ https://www.heraldnet.com/business/big-farm-deal-171m-for-14...
nikanj 8y ago
It’s a common bias to think that everyone I know eats organic, therefore everyone eats organic. From that point of view, it makes sense to predict the demise of big farms.

Spooky23 8y ago

Really? In my area (NY) farms are just dead... people are running food drives as there just isn’t a way to make money.

nine_k 8y ago

I suppose that we will see two trends, both fueled by increasingly robotic farming. * Old huge farms employing fewer and fewer people, replacing more low-skill work with machines, and possibly driving prices on some crops down. * New smaller farms, employing a small number of people, made profitable by the extensive use of the (semi-autonomous) machines, catering to specialty / niche markets, perishables, etc. Huge mono-culture fields may, or may not, be split to smaller, more diverse fields, as agriculture machines become more advanced and smart. A machine that allows for techniques that let you spend less on pest control could be attractive from a purely economic POV. Since the cost of labor is high, neither will drive agricultural employment up. They will likely still bring more variety, and more sustainability due to technology allowing nicer practices.

dbcurtis 8y ago

Wow, bold statements. Show me the math. As in, show me the before and after P&L for a large-scale mono-culture grain farmer that transitions his enterprise to your vision.

christophilus 8y ago

> a better term Permaculture, maybe? I hope you’re right.

ghthor 8y ago

This is exactly where I want my career to go. I want to own a small patch of land and I want to nurture that land to produce food. I am amassing capital now using my software engineering skills to purchase my land outright with cash.