5 ms·

Bill Gates thinks a coming disease could kill 30M people within 6 months

44 points by heldrida 8y ago

hulton 8y ago
And I'm sure Bill bought the patent for the cure just like the geo-engineering patents he purchased to save us all from climate change.
amerine 8y ago
Pandemics are scary.
nwah1 8y ago
This mentions a lot of great tactics. Rapid diagnosis, treating secondary illnesses, antivirals, vaccines, etc. This article didn't talk about preventative measures, although I know Gates has committed big money towards toilets and hygiene. That, to me, is just as important as all that other stuff combined. Not to mention bednets to prevent malaria, water filters, ensuring access to condoms, etc. Additionally, there should be more focus on other types of preventative measures that even affect developed countries. Improved ventilation on public transit, improved hygiene within hospitals, harm reduction sites for intravenous drug users, reducing the amount of unnecessary contact in public spaces (doors, faucets, garbage cans, water fountains, etc), and reducing risks on shared contact tools where touch is necessary like railings or touchscreens. We also know certain types of products are known to be disease vectors, like bagged lettuce... but there's not even warning labels or any kind of safety initiatives there. And a pie in the sky dream that I have would be something like a continuous integration system for food safety testing. Every product from every brand could be put through some kind of distributed testing network and regularly tested for pathogens and toxins. We sort of do this with air quality and water quality testing, but it also could be improved with more frequent reporting, and more redundancy.
- nwah1 8y ago
  As luck would have it, this story is on the front page of HN right now about testing agricultural water for pathogens. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18535425 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18535425
cruella_deville 8y ago
I think something needs to be tuned up a little, the six months estimate does not mean six months from now but six months after the patient zero and transmission to the surrounding epideme. between natural process, manmade pathogens, weaponized pathogens, and relic pathogens emerging from permafrost older than mankind, we collectively as a species need some consensus. typically overpopulations are inescapably corrected by starvation, or disease.
chrisbennet 8y ago
Too bad we are not renewing CDC funding for fighting global disease outbreaks. https://www.google.com/search?q=cdc+funding+trump&source=lmns&authuser=0&rlz=1C9BKJA_enUS690US693&prmd=niv&biw=1024&bih=653&hl=en&ved=2ahUKEwi41Z7ntfPeAhURKN8KHRb7CNsQ_AUoAHoECAAQAw https://www.google.com/search?q=cdc+funding+trump&source=lmn...
- masonic 8y ago
  Fake news. https://www.politifact.com/north-carolina/statements/2018/feb/16/bobbie-richardson/nc-democrat-says-trumps-cutting-cdc-budget-80-perc/ https://www.politifact.com/north-carolina/statements/2018/fe...
  - chrisbennet 8y ago
    The 80% is questionable news but that is not what I posted. The CDC had money earmarked for pandemic prevention and that money will run out in 2019. It has not been renewed. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/02/cdc-funding-pandemics/552224/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/02/cdc-fundi... ”That money has been used well, to train epidemiologists, buy equipment, upgrade labs, and stockpile drugs. If it disappears, progress will halt, and potentially reverse. The CDC, for example, would have to pull back 80 percent of its staff in 35 countries, breaking ties with local ministries of health.”
    - masonic 8y ago
      It has not been renewed. It wasn't pre-budgeted more than one fiscal year in advance in any Obama budget, either. That's never been normal practice.
contingencies 8y ago
Pandemic is a great cooperative board game. https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/30549/pandemic https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/30549/pandemic
- stock_toaster 8y ago
  “shut down everything”
- Doxin 8y ago
  Surprisingly hard too. There's never enough time and always too many outbreaks.
RunawayGalaxy 8y ago
The world's immune system at work.
aruggirello 8y ago
Perhaps relevant: ebola outbreak 3D from last month: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18393509 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18393509

44 points by heldrida 8y ago

And I'm sure Bill bought the patent for the cure just like the geo-engineering patents he purchased to save us all from climate change.

amerine 8y ago

Pandemics are scary.

nwah1 8y ago

This mentions a lot of great tactics. Rapid diagnosis, treating secondary illnesses, antivirals, vaccines, etc. This article didn't talk about preventative measures, although I know Gates has committed big money towards toilets and hygiene. That, to me, is just as important as all that other stuff combined. Not to mention bednets to prevent malaria, water filters, ensuring access to condoms, etc. Additionally, there should be more focus on other types of preventative measures that even affect developed countries. Improved ventilation on public transit, improved hygiene within hospitals, harm reduction sites for intravenous drug users, reducing the amount of unnecessary contact in public spaces (doors, faucets, garbage cans, water fountains, etc), and reducing risks on shared contact tools where touch is necessary like railings or touchscreens. We also know certain types of products are known to be disease vectors, like bagged lettuce... but there's not even warning labels or any kind of safety initiatives there. And a pie in the sky dream that I have would be something like a continuous integration system for food safety testing. Every product from every brand could be put through some kind of distributed testing network and regularly tested for pathogens and toxins. We sort of do this with air quality and water quality testing, but it also could be improved with more frequent reporting, and more redundancy.

nwah1 8y ago
As luck would have it, this story is on the front page of HN right now about testing agricultural water for pathogens. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18535425 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18535425

cruella_deville 8y ago

I think something needs to be tuned up a little, the six months estimate does not mean six months from now but six months after the patient zero and transmission to the surrounding epideme. between natural process, manmade pathogens, weaponized pathogens, and relic pathogens emerging from permafrost older than mankind, we collectively as a species need some consensus. typically overpopulations are inescapably corrected by starvation, or disease.

chrisbennet 8y ago

Too bad we are not renewing CDC funding for fighting global disease outbreaks. https://www.google.com/search?q=cdc+funding+trump&source=lmns&authuser=0&rlz=1C9BKJA_enUS690US693&prmd=niv&biw=1024&bih=653&hl=en&ved=2ahUKEwi41Z7ntfPeAhURKN8KHRb7CNsQ_AUoAHoECAAQAw https://www.google.com/search?q=cdc+funding+trump&source=lmn...

masonic 8y ago
Fake news. https://www.politifact.com/north-carolina/statements/2018/feb/16/bobbie-richardson/nc-democrat-says-trumps-cutting-cdc-budget-80-perc/ https://www.politifact.com/north-carolina/statements/2018/fe...
- chrisbennet 8y ago
  The 80% is questionable news but that is not what I posted. The CDC had money earmarked for pandemic prevention and that money will run out in 2019. It has not been renewed. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/02/cdc-funding-pandemics/552224/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/02/cdc-fundi... ”That money has been used well, to train epidemiologists, buy equipment, upgrade labs, and stockpile drugs. If it disappears, progress will halt, and potentially reverse. The CDC, for example, would have to pull back 80 percent of its staff in 35 countries, breaking ties with local ministries of health.”
  - masonic 8y ago
    It has not been renewed. It wasn't pre-budgeted more than one fiscal year in advance in any Obama budget, either. That's never been normal practice.

contingencies 8y ago

Pandemic is a great cooperative board game. https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/30549/pandemic https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/30549/pandemic

stock_toaster 8y ago
“shut down everything”
Doxin 8y ago
Surprisingly hard too. There's never enough time and always too many outbreaks.

RunawayGalaxy 8y ago

The world's immune system at work.

aruggirello 8y ago

Perhaps relevant: ebola outbreak 3D from last month: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18393509 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18393509