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Share prices expand when revenues look to be expanding. What the price action in MSFT and AAPL tells me is that the market sees MSFT as growing over the next fe
by dkrich 8y ago
Share prices expand when revenues look to be expanding. What the price action in MSFT and AAPL tells me is that the market sees MSFT as growing over the next few years (at least) and AAPL not growing much from where it is now.
This story starts to make sense as you look at Apple's product portfolio. AAPL's cash cow is the iPhone. Yes they make tons of money on other products like laptops, tablets, and watches, but the lion's share of the revenue comes from iPhones. This has been the case for a long time, so why now has the stock pulled back? It's because now the ASP on the iPhone is likely topped out for a while, especially as the economy starts to slow down. So ASP is topped out, what about unit growth? If prices remain constant but units sold continues to go up, wouldn't that mean increased revenue? Yes, but that too seems to be stagnating according to the most recent earnings reports. And that's the story, IMO. Revenues on the most important products have seemingly topped out and probably won't increase significantly from here. That could of course change if for example lots of Android users unexpectedly flock to iPhones. There's no reason to believe this will happen, though.
What about other lines of revenue? Services, for instance? Apple Music and video content are commodity businesses so likely won't see much revenue expansion from here. Wearables are probably the main bright spot.
Let's not forget that the entire market for tech stocks is in the midst of a huge sell-off which is probably most to blame for Apple's decline. There is probably two-way influence here.
Apple was basically rerated over the past year or two from a stable dividend generator to a growthier stock and is now being rerated back to stable dividend generator. I don't think Apple has any near-term competitive threats to its business so should bottom out sometime soon, but if the stock is to resume its uptrend it has to show significant growth in new areas.