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I think this is the crux of why Apple trades at such a low P/E, sure they make tons of money, but their product line is very concentrated and not diverse at all
by partiallypro 8y ago
I think this is the crux of why Apple trades at such a low P/E, sure they make tons of money, but their product line is very concentrated and not diverse at all. Microsoft has tons of product lines, and if one is suffering others usually do ok, or excel. Windows has struggled for the past decade or two, and what picked up the slack? Office 365 and Azure. I suspect when those cool off, Windows and devices will pick back up. Microsoft is built better to handle cyclicality. That's not to say Apple isn't a great company, or even a bad investment, but I do understand why Apple has fallen so sharply, and relatively speaking, Microsoft has had a marginal correction relative to its peers.
If you assume we might head into a recession due to the trade war, Apple has never really had to go through that with their current high end product line. The iPhone was introduced in 2007 and was early cycle even during the financial collapse. It will be interesting to see if the business cycle greatly hurts their sales. I think that's what so many are worried about. Especially when we have their vendors cutting forecast (and yes there have been some crying wolf over the years, but eventually the wolf will show) and Apple being less transparent about unit sales. I suspect they will see a fall in sales when we do enter a recession, but I am encouraged that they have such control over their supply line that they won't get stuck with inventory gluts, like...uh Nvidia.
I mean back a few years ago Microsoft had a massive write-off from hardware...and that's not even a fraction of their business, imagine if Apple had to write off a ton of hardware, it would be brutal. That seems unlikely though, as I said, they seem to have a good handle on their inventory.