5 ms·

That's not true, putting a product I've already ordered on my recommended list instead of something i actually want to buy is costing them money in lost sales.

afthonos 8y ago
That’s assuming those are the alternatives. If the alternative is instead to show you something you’ve already ordered or nothing, the odds of you ordering again if you see the thing you’ve ordered already are small, but nonzero.
- bduerst 8y ago
  That's a false dichotomy. There's a number of things they can show you, not just reorder or nothing. In a perfect world for targeting sales, they will predict and show you exactly what it is you want to buy next. Repurchasing is just a very lazy way of predicting what you'll buy next.
  - ojilles 8y ago
    I'm not afthonos, but I think his/her point is that they may not be able to predict exactly what it is you want to buy. (I find it super annoying, too; but that doesn't mean folks have figured out purchase reco's at scale)
- coltonv 8y ago
  If the chance I'm going to buy something that I've already bought again is close to 0, and it's not smart enough to find anything else for me that it thinks I should buy, then logically it should show me random things. That way I'm training the algorithm for them and maybe I'll find something I want.
  - afthonos 8y ago
    Logically, they will show you whatever is most likely to generate revenue (possibly amortized over time). As long as the probability of you reordering is higher than that if you buying a random item out of millions (and those odds are tiny to begin with), the logical thing to do is to show you the item you already ordered.
dkokelley 8y ago
Amazon also doesn't know if this is a single use or consumable item. Some things have significant marginal utility beyond 1, and others can be consumed and need to be reordered. (Charging cables, Amazon echo for multiple rooms, paper goods, etc.)
- gweinberg 8y ago
  They should have a pretty good idea which items get reordered a lot and which don't. They've got plenty of data.
- NicoJuicy 8y ago
  Yes, they do. Customer patterns on that product
- FireBeyond 8y ago
  How often do I buy a HP Color LaserJet printer, versus toner cartridges for it? Or ink for another printer of which it has no evidence that I own)? Yet I bought a color laser printer and my first two pages of recommendations are for other variations on the same ("Hey, you bought the wired MFP! Perhaps you want the wireless too! And I know it's a HP printer, but maybe I can suggest some Brother toner for you!").
  - dkokelley 8y ago
    You're correct that Amazon should be smarter about some recommendations. I'd say give them the benefit of the doubt in that they may have found an algorithm that works most of the time (or at least when it comes to their bottom line), but edge-cases stand out to us. Still though, there could be a method to the madness. You bought a printer - are you setting up a home office? Perhaps you want a second printer for upstairs? Also, you just bought an HP brand printer. Were you replacing a printer that just ran out of ink? Maybe THAT printer was a Brother printer. Perhaps this Brother ink cartridge can extend the life of the hypothetical printer you may be replacing... My point is that I can contrive cases where the recommendations might make sense - not to you, specifically, but to a large enough cross-section of consumers.
nerdponx 8y ago
From Amazon's perspective, it doesn't have to work for you; it has to work on average.
- citilife 8y ago
  In that case, it may be better to just put the hot new item in a category they know you purchase in. For instance, if I have a subscription to paper towels, maybe they should send me a subscription recommendation for toilet paper.
  - dodobirdlord 8y ago
    I'm sure someone thought to A/B test the recommendation engine against the whatever-happens-to-be-selling-right-now engine and the recommendation engine won.
- bane 8y ago
  An AUC of .5 isn't considered good in ML
  - TheCoelacanth 8y ago
    That very much depends on the domain. In this case, I suspect it would be considered phenomenally good since a human would achieve a much lower number. Conversion rates for web ads created by humans are typically not more than a few percent.
ryanmarsh 8y ago
People buy a lot of consumable products on Amazon. People buy a lot of things and realize how much they like and would like another for another room in the house or something. You aren't thinking broadly enough here.

afthonos 8y ago

That’s assuming those are the alternatives. If the alternative is instead to show you something you’ve already ordered or nothing, the odds of you ordering again if you see the thing you’ve ordered already are small, but nonzero.

bduerst 8y ago
That's a false dichotomy. There's a number of things they can show you, not just reorder or nothing. In a perfect world for targeting sales, they will predict and show you exactly what it is you want to buy next. Repurchasing is just a very lazy way of predicting what you'll buy next.
- ojilles 8y ago
  I'm not afthonos, but I think his/her point is that they may not be able to predict exactly what it is you want to buy. (I find it super annoying, too; but that doesn't mean folks have figured out purchase reco's at scale)
coltonv 8y ago
If the chance I'm going to buy something that I've already bought again is close to 0, and it's not smart enough to find anything else for me that it thinks I should buy, then logically it should show me random things. That way I'm training the algorithm for them and maybe I'll find something I want.
- afthonos 8y ago
  Logically, they will show you whatever is most likely to generate revenue (possibly amortized over time). As long as the probability of you reordering is higher than that if you buying a random item out of millions (and those odds are tiny to begin with), the logical thing to do is to show you the item you already ordered.

dkokelley 8y ago

Amazon also doesn't know if this is a single use or consumable item. Some things have significant marginal utility beyond 1, and others can be consumed and need to be reordered. (Charging cables, Amazon echo for multiple rooms, paper goods, etc.)

gweinberg 8y ago
They should have a pretty good idea which items get reordered a lot and which don't. They've got plenty of data.
NicoJuicy 8y ago
Yes, they do. Customer patterns on that product
FireBeyond 8y ago
How often do I buy a HP Color LaserJet printer, versus toner cartridges for it? Or ink for another printer of which it has no evidence that I own)? Yet I bought a color laser printer and my first two pages of recommendations are for other variations on the same ("Hey, you bought the wired MFP! Perhaps you want the wireless too! And I know it's a HP printer, but maybe I can suggest some Brother toner for you!").
- dkokelley 8y ago
  You're correct that Amazon should be smarter about some recommendations. I'd say give them the benefit of the doubt in that they may have found an algorithm that works most of the time (or at least when it comes to their bottom line), but edge-cases stand out to us. Still though, there could be a method to the madness. You bought a printer - are you setting up a home office? Perhaps you want a second printer for upstairs? Also, you just bought an HP brand printer. Were you replacing a printer that just ran out of ink? Maybe THAT printer was a Brother printer. Perhaps this Brother ink cartridge can extend the life of the hypothetical printer you may be replacing... My point is that I can contrive cases where the recommendations might make sense - not to you, specifically, but to a large enough cross-section of consumers.

nerdponx 8y ago

From Amazon's perspective, it doesn't have to work for you; it has to work on average.

citilife 8y ago
In that case, it may be better to just put the hot new item in a category they know you purchase in. For instance, if I have a subscription to paper towels, maybe they should send me a subscription recommendation for toilet paper.
- dodobirdlord 8y ago
  I'm sure someone thought to A/B test the recommendation engine against the whatever-happens-to-be-selling-right-now engine and the recommendation engine won.
bane 8y ago
An AUC of .5 isn't considered good in ML
- TheCoelacanth 8y ago
  That very much depends on the domain. In this case, I suspect it would be considered phenomenally good since a human would achieve a much lower number. Conversion rates for web ads created by humans are typically not more than a few percent.

ryanmarsh 8y ago

People buy a lot of consumable products on Amazon. People buy a lot of things and realize how much they like and would like another for another room in the house or something. You aren't thinking broadly enough here.