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I don't believe your analysis. The relationship has such a high correlation, you can just look at the the graph and probably eyeball estimate the regression wit

by Apes 8y ago

I don't believe your analysis. The relationship has such a high correlation, you can just look at the the graph and probably eyeball estimate the regression within 10% error. Banks and relators have such a massive conflict of interest in pretending that the inflated prices on housing are normal. Rising interest rates are causing housing sales volumes to plummet to record lows, and after over a year of pretending nothing was wrong, prices are finally starting to come down. But the people invested in the housing market want to pretend it's anything other than the interest rate, like a child caught with their hand in the cookie jar and making up nonsensical explanations on why it happened.

brownbat 8y ago
When I eyeball the graph, 2002 to 2011 really jumps out. For about a third of the graph the two move in lock step. It's a weird sort of inverted relationship when the variables spend so much time moving in the same direction. Here's another take: “If you look at the relationship between [mortgage] rates and [home] sales and home prices, the relationship is almost zero,” said Sam Khater, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic. https://www.curbed.com/2018/2/20/17029746/interest-rates-rising-home-sales-price https://www.curbed.com/2018/2/20/17029746/interest-rates-ris... Maybe all these people are biased, or lying about simple numbers, or it's some big conspiracy. The alternative explanation is just that the economy really has more than two variables. That second hypothesis doesn't seem so preposterous to me.
- telchar 8y ago
  Indeed. It's worth considering as well that even when analyzing actual data what seems like a relationship between two variables can be wiped out or inverted by the addition of other variables into the model. It's important to include all relevant variables into the model to know how two variables really interact.
- Spooky23 8y ago
  There is no conspiracy, just that the rules changes to keep demand going. All sorts of garbage loans that would have been illegal in the past are now common.

by Apes 8y ago

brownbat 8y ago

When I eyeball the graph, 2002 to 2011 really jumps out. For about a third of the graph the two move in lock step. It's a weird sort of inverted relationship when the variables spend so much time moving in the same direction. Here's another take: “If you look at the relationship between [mortgage] rates and [home] sales and home prices, the relationship is almost zero,” said Sam Khater, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic. https://www.curbed.com/2018/2/20/17029746/interest-rates-rising-home-sales-price https://www.curbed.com/2018/2/20/17029746/interest-rates-ris... Maybe all these people are biased, or lying about simple numbers, or it's some big conspiracy. The alternative explanation is just that the economy really has more than two variables. That second hypothesis doesn't seem so preposterous to me.

telchar 8y ago
Indeed. It's worth considering as well that even when analyzing actual data what seems like a relationship between two variables can be wiped out or inverted by the addition of other variables into the model. It's important to include all relevant variables into the model to know how two variables really interact.
Spooky23 8y ago
There is no conspiracy, just that the rules changes to keep demand going. All sorts of garbage loans that would have been illegal in the past are now common.