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I mean something like this. It seems like just one person needs to do it, then it could be boilerplate since I see similar posts all over the place: > "The gre

by nonbel 8y ago

I mean something like this. It seems like just one person needs to do it, then it could be boilerplate since I see similar posts all over the place: > "The great strides we're making in access to food and clean water and medical care" -- What evidence is there for great strides being made? -- Regarding medical "care", there is an implication that care is a good thing. How well is this "care" translating to health, rather than putting people on more pills and causing an obesity crisis? > "[Improved access to food, clean water, and medical care] won't stop unchecked global warming from devastating human civilization. -- Why couldn't it? I have often heard the argument that improved standard of living leads to lower birthrates. > "It's not just a matter of rising sea levels" -- What evidence is there for rising sea levels? I have heard they were rising before humans started pumping CO2 into the atmosphere. > "if things continue apace, -- Why should we expect climate change to continue apace? Looking at the vostok ice core data it looks like there is some negative feedback that leads to a glacial period once it gets too hot. In fact it looks like we are due for one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_core#/media/File:Vostok_Petit_data.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_core#/media/File:Vostok_Pe... -- There is also the grand solar minimum we may be due for as well... > "large parts of the equator will be too hot for humans to survive" -- Needs source: If humans can find ways to survive in antarctica, submarines, and outer space I doubt this true. > "By the end of this century, and hundreds of millions of climate refugees will be seeking sanctuary somewhere, anywhere." -- Why, exactly? Are they incapable of planning ahead or building air conditioned structures? Does this assume some sort of energy crisis?

alchemism 8y ago
I can’t help but notice you ignored the content of the parent post entirely and answered the grandfather post instead.
- nonbel 8y ago
  The first link doesnt even contain a proper link/reference to their primary source (unless I missed it). The second (at least the annotated version) does contain some good links, eg to the IPCC AR5 homepage. The AR5 is a thousand pages long document... and this page itself is also quite long (nothing wrong with that, but you should quote the section of interest). But lets look at the second source a bit closer. Their first cited claim is: "Indeed, absent a significant adjustment to how billions of humans conduct their lives, parts of the Earth will likely become close to uninhabitable, and other parts horrifically inhospitable, as soon as the end of this century." If you hover over that they say the IPCC says a median (median meaning ~ 50-50 odds higher or lower) warming of ~4 C by the end of the century, yet that paper talks about at least 7 C of warming. So this first claim is simply not supported by the citations and I didnt bother going on.
  - DennisP 8y ago
    It wasn't me who made the claim. It's what I found with a 30-second google. Here's another with links to two primary sources. https://www.cyi.ac.cy/index.php/in-focus/climate-exodus-expected-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa.html https://www.cyi.ac.cy/index.php/in-focus/climate-exodus-expe... There's plenty more. To really dive in, go with Six Degrees.
    - nonbel 8y ago
      Sorry, it is even clear which claim you are referring to at this point. Also, if you believe something so strongly why do you not have a go-to source for the information that lead to that belief? Why, exactly do I believe this is an important question to ask yourself (about everything)? It is just something unimaginable to me to not really know why I thought civilization is going to collapse and resort to 30 second googlings. I guess in the end it is that book 6 degrees for you. If so, ok. I will check it out.
      - DennisP 8y ago
        That book, Hansen's, and a stack of others. I resort to googlings because most people online appreciate something they can read immediately. But I don't think civilization is going to collapse. I think it is at high risk of collapsing if we don't take strong preventive measures.
PhasmaFelis 8y ago
> What evidence is there for rising sea levels? Google "evidence for rising sea levels". Do your own homework. It's reasonable to ask for sources for new or little-known claims; if you've somehow missed decades of well-established science, that's on you. > Needs source: If humans can find ways to survive in antarctica, submarines, and outer space I doubt this true. So it's no big deal to just build air-conditioned arcologies to house two billion-plus people? In some of the poorest places on Earth? You're not being serious; this is knee-jerk contrarianism. Let us know if you want to discuss this in good faith.
- nonbel 8y ago
  > "Do your own homework." Sorry, but both claims I followed to original research articles in this thread did not contain the supposed info. I gave you guys another chance to convince someone, even giving explicit instructions and an example of the format, and instead I walk away thinking the people concerned about this don't actually know what they are talking about. First, was that if things continue apace large areas will be unlivable -- The primary source said if temperatures rose an additional 7 degrees C, which is twice the rise expected by the IPCC, something like that may happen. Second, was that 99.99% of scientists say that we're screwed. -- Instead it was the percent of papers with global warming in the title/abstract that didnt include a claim like "global warming is BS" in the title/abstract, or something. Either way it had to do with the existence of warming, not the consequences. That's why I have the rule. To prevent from wasting each others time it is best to quote the exact line or figure you think is relevant. And if you look through my post history you can see I do indeed treat others how I would like to be treated when it comes to these types of topics.
  - DennisP 8y ago
    IPCC's business-as-usual scenario presents a range. You were correct that 4C is about the median but 6.4C is the upper end: https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-projections-of.html https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm... That's by the end of the century, not the highest it will ever go. And honestly, I hope you're not going to base your views on what links a couple jokers on HN have handy. Read books with real references or by actual scientists. We can't provide a couple web articles that will be sufficient to convince you, if that's not what convinced us.

by nonbel 8y ago

alchemism 8y ago

I can’t help but notice you ignored the content of the parent post entirely and answered the grandfather post instead.

nonbel 8y ago
The first link doesnt even contain a proper link/reference to their primary source (unless I missed it). The second (at least the annotated version) does contain some good links, eg to the IPCC AR5 homepage. The AR5 is a thousand pages long document... and this page itself is also quite long (nothing wrong with that, but you should quote the section of interest). But lets look at the second source a bit closer. Their first cited claim is: "Indeed, absent a significant adjustment to how billions of humans conduct their lives, parts of the Earth will likely become close to uninhabitable, and other parts horrifically inhospitable, as soon as the end of this century." If you hover over that they say the IPCC says a median (median meaning ~ 50-50 odds higher or lower) warming of ~4 C by the end of the century, yet that paper talks about at least 7 C of warming. So this first claim is simply not supported by the citations and I didnt bother going on.
- DennisP 8y ago
  It wasn't me who made the claim. It's what I found with a 30-second google. Here's another with links to two primary sources. https://www.cyi.ac.cy/index.php/in-focus/climate-exodus-expected-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa.html https://www.cyi.ac.cy/index.php/in-focus/climate-exodus-expe... There's plenty more. To really dive in, go with Six Degrees.
  - nonbel 8y ago
    Sorry, it is even clear which claim you are referring to at this point. Also, if you believe something so strongly why do you not have a go-to source for the information that lead to that belief? Why, exactly do I believe this is an important question to ask yourself (about everything)? It is just something unimaginable to me to not really know why I thought civilization is going to collapse and resort to 30 second googlings. I guess in the end it is that book 6 degrees for you. If so, ok. I will check it out.
    - DennisP 8y ago
      That book, Hansen's, and a stack of others. I resort to googlings because most people online appreciate something they can read immediately. But I don't think civilization is going to collapse. I think it is at high risk of collapsing if we don't take strong preventive measures.

PhasmaFelis 8y ago

> What evidence is there for rising sea levels? Google "evidence for rising sea levels". Do your own homework. It's reasonable to ask for sources for new or little-known claims; if you've somehow missed decades of well-established science, that's on you. > Needs source: If humans can find ways to survive in antarctica, submarines, and outer space I doubt this true. So it's no big deal to just build air-conditioned arcologies to house two billion-plus people? In some of the poorest places on Earth? You're not being serious; this is knee-jerk contrarianism. Let us know if you want to discuss this in good faith.

nonbel 8y ago
> "Do your own homework." Sorry, but both claims I followed to original research articles in this thread did not contain the supposed info. I gave you guys another chance to convince someone, even giving explicit instructions and an example of the format, and instead I walk away thinking the people concerned about this don't actually know what they are talking about. First, was that if things continue apace large areas will be unlivable -- The primary source said if temperatures rose an additional 7 degrees C, which is twice the rise expected by the IPCC, something like that may happen. Second, was that 99.99% of scientists say that we're screwed. -- Instead it was the percent of papers with global warming in the title/abstract that didnt include a claim like "global warming is BS" in the title/abstract, or something. Either way it had to do with the existence of warming, not the consequences. That's why I have the rule. To prevent from wasting each others time it is best to quote the exact line or figure you think is relevant. And if you look through my post history you can see I do indeed treat others how I would like to be treated when it comes to these types of topics.
- DennisP 8y ago
  IPCC's business-as-usual scenario presents a range. You were correct that 4C is about the median but 6.4C is the upper end: https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-projections-of.html https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm... That's by the end of the century, not the highest it will ever go. And honestly, I hope you're not going to base your views on what links a couple jokers on HN have handy. Read books with real references or by actual scientists. We can't provide a couple web articles that will be sufficient to convince you, if that's not what convinced us.