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> the correct way to prepare for deflation is to have liquid, cash assets I agree that we're more likely to struggle with deflation and stagnation, and holding
by panarky 8y ago
> the correct way to prepare for deflation is to have liquid, cash assets
I agree that we're more likely to struggle with deflation and stagnation, and holding cash is the textbook response.
But in the last 10 years of ZIRP, cash underperformed every major asset class -- stocks, bonds, real estate, fine art, private businesses, precious metals, cryptocurrencies, even rare books [1].
Cash was the worst place to be.
We can blame it on QE, but policymakers will do infinite QE before they'll allow asset prices to fall very far.
So I'm not sure the textbook response is valid in the world we actually inhabit.
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/books/2015/nov/10/index-reveals-popular-first-edition-novels-have-seen-value-double https://www.theguardian.com/books/2015/nov/10/index-reveals-...
- rsync 8y ago"But in the last 10 years of ZIRP, cash underperformed every major asset class -- stocks, bonds, real estate, fine art, private businesses, precious metals, cryptocurrencies, even rare books" Yes, that is my point - the correct response to deflation is a very painful experience (and has been, as you note). Since the deflationary collapse can be delayed be QE3, QE4, QE5, etc., that pain could last a very long time. I don't know how to properly prepare for / hedge against the scenario I outlined.