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It seems, these days, as though the human race has passed a Rubicon and is now on a straight path toward the end of days, or at least the end of the social orde

It seems, these days, as though the human race has passed a Rubicon and is now on a straight path toward the end of days, or at least the end of the social order as we know it. Is there some name for the phenomenon that as things get better, our assessment of where things stand seems to get more and more pessimistic? I feel like you see this in issues of racial and gender equality as well. Things are so much better than they were 100 years ago, but even as I write that, I'm tempted to pre-empt it with an acknowledgement that things are still terrible, because I know that I'm going to get a bunch of comments about how bad race and gender relations are today. And those comments are not wrong, but they ignore the context of all the progress that's been made. There will always be some kind of crisis and existential risk looming for some or all of civilization, but the more objectively better things get, the more disinclined we seem to be to acknowledge the progress that's been made. Why is that? Don't get me wrong, climate change is horrific. But for almost the entire second half of the last century, we faced the very real threat of nuclear annihilation at any moment. It's terrifying how close we came to that tipping point. For the first half of the last century, we had two global wars that killed tens of millions of people and whose outcomes were not certain. When I read the history of World War I and II, I'm struck by how easily things could have gone differently and perhaps left us with a much worse world than the one we face today. So while climate change is a huge problem, I think it's preferable to all-out nuclear war. I think we'll figure it out in the long run, not without a lot of suffering and cost, but we have options. Maybe I'm wrong though. Regardless, as soon as we do, there will be some new problem that isn't quite as bad as climate change, and humanity will be as pessimistic as its ever been about our future ability to thrive.

cf498 8y ago
Nuclear holocaust would have been caused and was prevented by just a few people. It would have been an action with a direct result. We could and did also just stop with the nonsense. We dont have that option for climate change. We have a worsening situation and no realistic option to stop or even reverse things. Differently put, nuclear holocaust was a threat, climate change an active process.
- yesenadam 8y ago
  we faced the very real threat of nuclear annihilation at any moment. It's terrifying how close we came nuclear holocaust was a threat I don't understand why these days people talk and act as if there's no risk of nuclear catastrophe. The effect of that seems to me incomparably worse than global warming. Yet no-one seems to talk about it anymore. I read on HN sometimes people saying they won't have kids because global warming etc, but never similar reference to nuclear war. I just looked up the famous Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists doomsday clock[0], which I hadn't heard about in years. Frighteningly, it is currently at 2 minutes to midnight, as close as it's ever been. Closer than it was at any time in the 60s, 70s, 80s. This is from the 2018 report[1]: In 2017, world leaders failed to respond effectively to the looming threats of nuclear war and climate change, making the world security situation more dangerous than it was a year ago—and as dangerous as it has been since World War II. The greatest risks last year arose in the nuclear realm. ... To call the world nuclear situation dire is to understate the danger—and its immediacy. On the climate change front, the danger may seem less immediate, but avoiding catastrophic temperature increases in the long run requires urgent attention now. ... But there has also been a breakdown in the international order that has been dangerously exacerbated by recent US actions. In 2017, the United States backed away from its long- standing leadership role in the world, reducing its commitment to seek common ground and undermining the overall effort toward solving pressing global governance challenges. Neither allies nor adversaries have been able to reliably predict US actions—or understand when US pronouncements are real, and when they are mere rhetoric. International diplomacy has been reduced to name-calling, giving it a surrealistic sense of unreality that makes the world security situation ever more threatening. Because of the extraordinary danger of the current moment, the Science and Security Board today moves the minute hand of the Doomsday Clock 30 seconds closer to catastrophe. It is now two minutes to midnight—the closest the Clock has ever been to Doomsday, and as close as it was in 1953, at the height of the Cold War. [0] https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/past-statements/ https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/past-statements/ [1] https://thebulletin.org/sites/default/files/2018%20Doomsday%20Clock%20Statement.pdf https://thebulletin.org/sites/default/files/2018%20Doomsday%...
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cf498 8y ago

Nuclear holocaust would have been caused and was prevented by just a few people. It would have been an action with a direct result. We could and did also just stop with the nonsense. We dont have that option for climate change. We have a worsening situation and no realistic option to stop or even reverse things. Differently put, nuclear holocaust was a threat, climate change an active process.

yesenadam 8y ago
we faced the very real threat of nuclear annihilation at any moment. It's terrifying how close we came nuclear holocaust was a threat I don't understand why these days people talk and act as if there's no risk of nuclear catastrophe. The effect of that seems to me incomparably worse than global warming. Yet no-one seems to talk about it anymore. I read on HN sometimes people saying they won't have kids because global warming etc, but never similar reference to nuclear war. I just looked up the famous Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists doomsday clock[0], which I hadn't heard about in years. Frighteningly, it is currently at 2 minutes to midnight, as close as it's ever been. Closer than it was at any time in the 60s, 70s, 80s. This is from the 2018 report[1]: In 2017, world leaders failed to respond effectively to the looming threats of nuclear war and climate change, making the world security situation more dangerous than it was a year ago—and as dangerous as it has been since World War II. The greatest risks last year arose in the nuclear realm. ... To call the world nuclear situation dire is to understate the danger—and its immediacy. On the climate change front, the danger may seem less immediate, but avoiding catastrophic temperature increases in the long run requires urgent attention now. ... But there has also been a breakdown in the international order that has been dangerously exacerbated by recent US actions. In 2017, the United States backed away from its long- standing leadership role in the world, reducing its commitment to seek common ground and undermining the overall effort toward solving pressing global governance challenges. Neither allies nor adversaries have been able to reliably predict US actions—or understand when US pronouncements are real, and when they are mere rhetoric. International diplomacy has been reduced to name-calling, giving it a surrealistic sense of unreality that makes the world security situation ever more threatening. Because of the extraordinary danger of the current moment, the Science and Security Board today moves the minute hand of the Doomsday Clock 30 seconds closer to catastrophe. It is now two minutes to midnight—the closest the Clock has ever been to Doomsday, and as close as it was in 1953, at the height of the Cold War. [0] https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/past-statements/ https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/past-statements/ [1] https://thebulletin.org/sites/default/files/2018%20Doomsday%20Clock%20Statement.pdf https://thebulletin.org/sites/default/files/2018%20Doomsday%...
- deleted 8y ago
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