This old 2014 paper from Friedlingstein et al really helped me to understand the idea of global warming in terms of cumulative emissions budgets: http://www.glo

This old 2014 paper from Friedlingstein et al really helped me to understand the idea of global warming in terms of cumulative emissions budgets: http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/global/pdf/Friedlingstein_2014_Persistent%20growth%20of%20CO2%20emissions%20and%20implications%20for%20reaching%20climate%20targets.NatureG.pdf http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/global/pdf/Friedlingstein... Table 1 has estimates of how many years of remaining global emissions we have before we exceed the cumulative emission budgets for various goals of limiting warming to at most +2, +3 or +4 degrees, and different probabilities of success. Note that the Friedlingstein et al paper from 2014 didn't even bother to talk about the possibility of limiting warming to +1.5 degrees C. These estimates of emissions rates for remaining years before our cumulative emissions budget is exceeded are highly optimistic in the sense that they assume annual CO_2-equivalent emissions stop growing, i.e. the rate we are emitting greenhouse gas is held constant to whatever they were in 2014. In comparison, annual greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow: http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/17/infographics.htm http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/17/infograph...